Ashis Ray

Will Modi’s ceasefire with Pakistan last?

Narendra Modi (Photo: Getty)

The perpetually fractious relationship between India and Pakistan reached a particularly low point two years ago, after dozens of Indian paramilitary personnel were killed in a suicide attack in Pulwama in the mountainous terrain of Kashmir.

India blamed the attack on Pakistan and bombed what it believed was a terrorist training camp in Balakot across the border. The Pakistani air force retaliated by shooting down an Indian air force plane in a dog-fight, with the pilot having to eject on enemy soil. The airman was returned; but the downward spiral in ties accelerated with the two countries withdrawing their high commissioners and suspending bilateral trade altogether.

Now, the endless volley of heavy artillery along a United Nations-mandated Line of Control in Kashmir (which has been claimed by both countries since 1947) has suddenly transformed into a ceasefire. Meanwhile, several confidence-building measures and restorations of status quo ante on a number of fronts are being discussed in back channels.

It didn’t seem like any rapprochement between India and Pakistan was possible. India’s head of government Narendra Modi had insisted there would be no dialogue until Pakistan abandoned its alleged export of terrorism to India. His opposite number Imran Khan had countered that there would be no talks until India reversed its abrogation of the relative provincial autonomy enjoyed by Kashmir.

There was little electoral incentive for Modi to compromise, either. India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is the political arm of the Hindu extremist, Muslim-hating Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), where Modi worked as a pracharak or propagandist in the past. His war-mongering on Pakistan before and after coming to power has reaped rich electoral rewards.

Meanwhile, the baffling security lapse at Pulwama that allowed the attack to take place has still not been explained.

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