The House of Commons will next week debate a motion on the Stormont brake, a month after it was unveiled by Rishi Sunak and Ursula von der Leyen. The measure was the centrepiece of Sunak’s ‘Windsor Framework’ and is intended to resolve long-running issues in Northern Ireland by alleviating the worst aspects of the Protocol and aiding the return of power-sharing at Stormont.
Penny Mordaunt, the Leader of the House, today confirmed that the detail of the legislation will be published on Monday and that there will be a subsequent debate on it on Wednesday. On the Tuesday, EU ministers will likely signed off on the whole agreement with little dispute.
Downing Street have today said that they regard Wednesday’s vote as the defining one on the deal, arguing that three weeks time is enough time for MPs to consider it. The Prime Minister’s spokesman told journalists at this afternoon’s lobby briefing that:
We said Parliament would have its say on the framework. This vote honours the Prime Minister’s commitment to provide MPs with the opportunity to vote on the new arrangements.
Labour have already said that they will back the revised framework so the vote will pass easily. However, all eyes will be on the number of Tory rebels and whether it is more than half the government’s current working majority of 66. The government whipping operation under Simon Hart has proven to be more effective thus far than that run by his predecessor Wendy Morton but votes on European matters are often contentious, to say the least.
Some Brexiteers are looking to see how the DUP reacts to the changes, with the party’s leader Sir Jeffrey Donaldson still yet to say whether he can accept the Protocol in its revised form. The DUP has convened a panel of expert lawyers – dubbed ‘the Orangery’ by one senior MP – to study the text of Sunak’s deal. Their Tory allies in the European Research Group have today said that their own ‘Star Chamber’ of lawyers will have concluded their audit of the changes before next Wednesday.
Outside the DUP and the ERG, how many others are likely to vote against the deal? The bulk of the Tory party seem happy with the changes, though Boris Johnson and his close ally Nadine Dorries have already signalled their discontent. One interesting coincidence about next week’s timeline is that Wednesday’s vote will occur straight after Prime Minister’s Questions at 12:30 p.m – just over an hour before Johnson is due in front of the Privileges Committee to answer questions about Partygate. However the vote goes, it looks likely to be a great day for parliamentary theatre.
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