Will Spain learn?

One of the unforeseen consequences of the reunification of Europe after the Cold War has been a resurgence of independence movements in western Europe. Emboldened by a greater sense of security and influenced by the rebirth of independent nations to the east, separatist parties have begun to challenge the boundaries of nation states which a quarter of a century ago we took for granted.

Scotland’s near miss — a 45 per cent vote for ‘yes’ — inspired the leader of Spain’s Catalonia region, Artur Mas, to launch his own vote on secession. This week, forbidden by Madrid from calling a referendum, he called regional elections in which pro-independence parties formed a bloc: effectively a test, they claimed, of voters’ desire for independence. There was a majority of seats in the regional parliament, but a minority of the votes, leaving Snr Mas with a pyrrhic victory.

Catalonian separatists are unable to command genuine majority support because, as in Scotland, a majority can see that independence from a three centuries-old nation state carries more risks than possible benefits. Simple transactions would become imports and exports. Why make foreigners out of friends and relatives? Then comes the issue of EU membership for Catalonia, which — as with Scotland — is by no means assured and may very well result in Catalans sending to Brussels some of the money they hoped to save in transfers to Madrid.

But Madrid ought to allow Catalans to reach this conclusion without trying to bully them into it. If David Cameron was too laid-back about the Scottish referendum and failed to make the case for the Union until it was nearly too late, the government of Mariano Rajoy has taken the opposite approach. He has threatened to impose direct rule from Madrid and dissolve Mas’s regional government of Catalonia.