The first by-election in Scotland since the SNP’s change of leadership is a huge test for First Minister Humza Yousaf. If the nationalists lose the seat of Rutherglen and Hamilton West, made vacant when constituents recalled their MP Margaret Ferrier after she broke Covid rules, Yousaf will face difficult questions about his party’s direction of travel.
As one nationalist activist puts it: ‘The last SNP MP got chucked out in disgrace and Humza’s ratings are still in the minuses, so who’d bet against us losing?’
Unlike his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon — who dominated her party and enjoyed the support of the vast majority of its members — the current First Minister firmly divides opinion among the SNP rank and file. In this year’s leadership election, he barely scraped together enough support to ensure victory and almost half of SNP members preferred other candidates. The loss of Rutherglen and Hamilton West will surely convince them that they were right not to think him up to the job.
But if the stakes are high for the SNP leader, they are higher still for Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Scottish leader Anas Sarwar. Long before voters in the north of England and the Midlands abandoned Labour, the first ‘red wall’ to fall was Scotland. In the 2015 general election, Labour lost 40 seats to hold on to just one — that belonging to the shadow Scottish secretary Ian Murray. Now, the party seems to be back in the game after recent polling from Panelbase for the Sunday Times suggests Labour is on course to overtake the SNP in Scotland at the next general election. Crucially, Labour’s apparent revival in Scotland has undermined the SNP’s message that only it can ‘protect’ Scots from Tory governments they do not support. A vote for Labour cannot easily be dismissed as a vote wasted.
The coming by-election will move things on from the theoretical; it is crucial for Labour not only that it wins but that it does so handsomely. If Labour squeaks to victory, then the SNP will be entitled to reassure itself that this is typical by-election stuff, where voters give the party of government a rap on the knuckles only to return to them at the next opportunity. In order for Labour to convince anyone that the party is a viable force in Scotland once more, it will have to record a result that shows the SNP on its knees.
It’s not just the SNP that poses problems for the party: divisions between Scottish Labour and UK Labour have come to the fore in recent weeks. Starmer has not exactly delighted his Scottish Labour colleagues with recent policy pronouncements. His decision to scrap Labour’s pledge to overturn the two-kid cap on child benefit has allowed the SNP to characterise him as a defender of ‘Conservative austerity’. Indeed, Labour’s very own candidate for Rutherglen and Hamilton West has promised that, if successful, he will spend his time campaigning against the UK party’s stance on this issue — among others. A vote for Labour is, the SNP tells Scots, just a vote for the same Tory stuff you hate.
And Starmer’s decision to row back Labour’s support for self-identification for trans people has deepened the rift with his comrades in Scotland, where the party remains committed to major gender reforms, including removing any medical gatekeeping from the process. One Labour MSP says: ‘The gender thing’s interesting. Keir’s position is the more popular one with voters but, for some reason, we’re sticking with the deeply unpopular self-ID policy. The upshot is that we look divided on the issue.’
The SNP expects defeat in Rutherglen and Hamilton West. As one nationalist activist puts it: ‘The last SNP MP got chucked out in disgrace and Humza’s ratings are still in the minuses, so who’d bet against us losing?’ Defeat may further weaken Yousaf but unless the margin is significant, it’s unlikely to be catastrophic for him. Defeat for Scottish Labour, on the other hand, would come as a shattering blow to the confidence of a party which has to start winning big if it is to return to power.
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