Will Tory party calm survive MP pay row?

Coffee House readers will be unsurprised by the interest taken by the newspapers and the Today programme in MPs’ pay: this blog predicted that it could be the next big row in the Conservative party at the start of June. It is politically sensible for the Prime Minister to say that he disagrees with a pay rise recommended by Ipsa if it raises overall costs, even if he has no formal veto over a raise. All he can do is send a formal response to the pay consultation. But he will need to work hard to keep his party behind him, and so will the other party leaders. This is not just a Tory problem: as one Labour frontbencher reminded me recently, the trade union influence in Ed Miliband’s party means his own MPs will instinctively want to negotiate the best pay settlement for themselves in the same way as unions always strive to do for their members.