Will voters buy the SNP’s ‘fresh start’ mantra?

There was a feeling of relief in the air at the SNP’s conference in Aberdeen when, for the first time in years, organisers could accurately describe the main hall as full. The choice of the P&J Live was a risky one (and one, I was told, that is unlikely to be made again) given its expansive size makes everything else, including the crowd, seem pretty small. But a sense of cautious optimism persisted: First Minister and party leader John Swinney had stabilised the party after a torrid few years of infighting and police probes and, in part thanks to Nigel Farage’s effectiveness and Keir Starmer’s lack thereof, the party was back to polling well ahead of Labour.

Much of the first day was spent discussing independence, with grassroots activists openly sceptical of the First Minister’s strategy that winning a majority of SNP seats at next year’s Scottish Parliament election will give rise to a mandate for a second indyref. Swinney insists that a precedent was set in 2011, when the majority won under Alex Salmond in Holyrood led to the 2012 Edinburgh Agreement that paved the way for the 2014 referendum. But given the ‘Yes’ movement has since fractured, and there are multiple – if much smaller – pro-indy parties in Holyrood, campaigners have argued that Swinney should be saying that a simple pro-independence majority in Holyrood should be enough to grant another poll on secession. 

The current strategy is blatant in its ambition to maximise the SNP’s success at the next election; even if the party did win more than 65 seats, the UK government is opposed to a second referendum. Swinney, meanwhile, has been curiously vague about what falling short of a majority would mean. ‘The general pattern [in the polls] shows a majority in favour of independence,’ the First Minister told LBC on the eve of his conference, darting the question. ‘I’ve got to turn that into real impetus behind voting for the SNP in the election in May.’ 

Swinney has also got to convince Scots that despite almost 20 years of SNP rule in Scotland, his party will provide a ‘fresh start’ for the country if elected back into government next year. Internal polling by the party has found that the ‘fresh start’ slogan, touted with growing frequency by its younger candidate group, cuts through best with voters fed up with the country’s cost-of-living crisis and creaking healthcare system. The SNP has pointed to its candidate turnover to justify the message: over 20 MSPs are standing down in 2026, while the party’s constituency list shows around 15 councillors and ten ex-MPs are standing for election. Not that the clear-out is as sweeping as some would like. ‘There are a few current cabinet members staying on that should really be stepping down,’ one SNP figure grumbled during the conference.

The First Minister made several big health and social care announcements during his speech on Monday. Swinney announced the Scottish government will sponsor the employment of overseas care workers – at a cost of £500,000 – in defiance of Labour’s ban. While the care sector has welcomed the proposal to keep existing staff in the system, more detail is required. 

And to avoid the 8 a.m. rush for a same-day GP appointment, the SNP will bring in 15 walk-in doctors’ surgeries across the country, open every day of the week from midday to 8 p.m. While the scheme – expected to cost around £30 million in total – will ramp up the competition with Scottish Labour, who are campaigning on health and housing ahead of next year’s poll, cynics have questioned why a policy like this wasn’t brought in during any of the SNP’s previous 18 years of government. 

There are concerns about resources, too: while a slight bounce in the number of full-time equivalent GPs in the past year has been seen, the Royal College of Physicians has pointed out that Scotland has fewer community doctors today than it did 10 years ago. BMA Scotland’s GP committee chair, Dr Iain Morrison, was a little more scathing – insisting general practice ‘cannot afford to see essential resources lost into pilot schemes with limited potential’. 

Perhaps more exciting is a strengthening of the SNP’s stance on oil and gas, as Seamus Logan MP hinted at during a More In Common panel on Monday. The politician said that a ‘presumption against new licences’ was a ‘policy of the past’, and insisted that protecting jobs in the north east was a key priority for the SNP ahead the May election. There is ‘no point importing oil and gas’ from other countries when Scotland is resource-rich, Logan said, promising more detail on this in the coming months. While a stronger stance on fossil fuels may come as a relief to industry workers, it could pose problems for the SNP if the party does fail to achieve a majority next year – and is forced to work more closely with the Scottish Greens again. In that vein, Logan refused to rule out a ‘confidence and supply’ agreement with the progressive pro-indy party. Instead of a fresh start, however, that may leave Scottish voters with a sense of déjà vu. 

For once, there was no real infighting on display. Swinney has said he plans to stay on after next year’s election, despite talk that there is a succession plan for establishment favourite Mairi McAllan to take the job at some point. Westminster group leader Stephen Flynn, who is running for the Aberdeen Deeside and North Kincardine Holyrood seat, has proven himself a skilled parliamentarian in London, and many believe that if he’s able to shore up support among the Holyrood group, he could also be a top contender. But right now, the First Minister is focused on building on the stability he’s achieved over the last 12 months. As evidenced by past polls, and despite the party’s ‘fresh start’ campaign message, a leadership contest is the last thing the SNP need.