Winning back lost ground

In a bid to make Tory MPs feel more involved, Downing Street is inviting small groups of them to see Andrew Cooper, David Cameron’s director of political strategy, and Stephen Gilbert, the PM’s political secretary. Patrick Rock, who acts as the political liaison to the civil service run policy-unit, also attends. The first of these meetings took place recently, with a dozen MPs attending.
 
Those who were present describe the presentation as being frank about the government’s recent difficulties, it uses the term omnishambles, but also trying to offer reassurance. There was much talk about how Margaret Thatcher’s position at this stage in the political cycle post 1979 and ’83 was far worse than Cameron’s is now.
 
One of Cooper’s big messages is that among those who have deserted the Tories since the last election 40 per cent are now don’t knows, another 40 per cent have gone to Labour and 20 per cent to UKIP. Intriguingly, among those switching to Labour, the third and fourth most popular reasons given are welfare and immigration — suggesting that these voters are protesting about the government rather than positively choosing Labour.
 
Cooper, who has always been sceptical about the political salience of the European issue, is also convinced that those moving to UKIP are largely motivated by immigration. His research shows that when asked why they don’t support the Tories anymore, two thirds of them don’t mention the EU at all.
 
One consequence of this research is likely to be an increasing Tory emphasis on what they have already done on welfare and immigration. Cooper, I’m told, is also much taken by the fact that when you tell focus groups that the coalition has already reduced the deficit by a quarter, it makes people think that the economic pain of the last two years has been worth it. So, expect to hear senior Tories making this argument repeatedly in the coming months.