Yes to AV on the ropes as the final round approaches

Thanks to this ComRes poll, the question floating around Westminster this morning is: how much?! You see, with only a day to go until the AV referendum, it has the No camp on 66 per cent, and the Yes camp on 34. That puts No a punishing 32 points ahead of its rival. Even allowing for the peculiarities of a bank holiday weekend – as noted by Anthony Wells here – it’s still an astonishing gap. It augurs a landslide.

Or does it? To my mind, much still rests on turnout and on the voting patterns of Wales, Scotland, etc. Yet there’s no denying that Yes are up against it – and in a major way. Their problem, and the problem that they have faced throughout this campaign, is perfectly encapsulated by this morning’s newspaper editorials. Even those that urge their readers to vote Yes tomorrow are cagey about AV. For instance, the Independent: “AV is not a perfect voting system.” And the Mirror: “There is no significant call within the country for electoral reform.” Only the Guardian appears completely won over by the reform, perhaps an aftershock from their support for the Lib Dems in the general election.

There is a broad consensus, throughout all the editorials and comment pages, that the campaign has been fought in a mean spirit. And no doubt, after the events of yesterday, there are many in the coalition who would agree. So here’s another question to ponder this morning: will we see more and more referenda in future? With the second national referendum in our history threatening to destabilise government, and even sowing some divide among the Opposition, my suspicion is that the politicians won’t be too keen on a third. At least not any time soon.