After six weeks of campaigning, we are finally here. The bongs of Big Ben at 10 p.m. mark the end of voting across the UK and the start of an election night full of drama. Labour are set to make huge gains at the respective expense of the Tories in England and the SNP in Scotland. The Liberal Democrats will try to topple as much of the ‘blue wall’ across the south as possible, while Reform will hope Nigel Farage, Richard Tice and Lee Anderson enter the new Commons too.
Following the publication of the exit poll, there is then a lull until shortly before midnight when the first seats in the north-east of England come in. Around 1 a.m. we get East Kilbride & Strathaven, Hamilton & Clyde Valley and Rutherglen to provide a first indication of patterns of voting in Scotland. After that, the flow of results begins to pick up, with just over 60 seats due to declare between 2 a.m. and 3 a.m.
The hour between 3 a.m. to 4 a.m. is likely to be the busiest time of the night, with nearly 250 declarations expected. Thereafter, the remaining seats are likely to follow the established voting trends. Recounts could delay some of the declarations from earlier, but every seat will begin counting overnight meaning there is a good chance that all 650 results will be in by mid-morning.
10 p.m. Exit poll is announced
This year’s exit poll by Ipsos will be carried out by interviewers at 133 polling stations across the country. Tens of thousands of people will be asked to privately fill in a replica ballot as they leave, to get an indication of how they voted. Exit polls have got it wrong in the past – predicting hung parliaments in both 1992 and 2015 polls – but tend to be within a few points of the final result.
11.30 p.m. First seats start to declare
The newly-created constituency of Blyth and Ashington in the north-east is expected to be the first result due this year. Labour’s Ian Lavery is predicted to hold this Red Wall bastion, having sat for the previous seat of Wansbeck since 2010. Bridget Phillipson’s seat of Houghton and Sunderland South could be the second seat to declare at around 11.45 p.m.
12.15 a.m. Basildon and Billericay
This declaration could give us the ‘Portillo moment’ of 2024. Basildon and Billericay is set to be the first declaration of the night featuring a Tory cabinet minister who could lose his seat. Conservative chairman Richard Holden was controversially parachuted in here at the start of the election campaign, after his old constituency of North West Durham was abolished in the boundary review. Polls currently have this true-blue Essex constituency as a three-way tie with Labour and Reform.
12.30 a.m. Swindon South
This is the first of the bellwether seats to declare. Swindon South looks set to fall to Labour as former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland tries to defend the constituency he has represented since 2010.
2 a.m – Reform barometer
The first test of the ‘Farage effect’ will be in Castle Point, one of the Thames Estuary seats where Reform will try to overturn a large Tory majority of 26,000. Rebecca Harris has represented this constituency since 2010, with Ukip managing to win 31 per cent of the vote here in 2015.
2.30 a.m. Galloway’s moment in Rochdale
Four months after the controversial Rochdale by-election, George Galloway will try to retain his seat against former journalist turned Labour candidate Paul Waugh. Expect fireworks with the speeches, however this seat goes.
3 a.m. Cheltenham starts the avalanche
The biggest wave of election night results is expected between 3 a.m. and 4 a.m. The first of the likely possible big scalps is the Lord Chancellor Alex Chalk in Cheltenham. He scraped home here in 2019, winning a majority of just 981. Having won every seat on the local council, the Lib Dems look nailed-on to win this one.
3 a.m. Chingford and Woodford Green
Can Iain Duncan Smith hold on? At the beginning of this campaign, the former Tory leader looked set to lose the seat he has held since 1997. But then Labour intervened to block their longtime candidate Faiza Shaheen. She has now chosen to stand as an independent against her replacement Shama Tatler, potentially splitting the vote and offering IDS an improbable lifeline.
3 a.m. Islington North
Across London, another former leader is also battling to save his career. Four years after losing the Labour whip, Jeremy Corbyn is now standing as an independent against Praful Nargund in Islington North. Having sat for the seat since 1983, Corbyn is a well-liked local MP but now looks set to narrowly lose, according to the current polls.
3 a.m. Midlothian bellwether
Having switched back and forth between Labour and the SNP over the last decade, Midlothian is a key battleground for Anas Sarwar and Keir Starmer. Incumbent Owen Thompson goes head-to-head here with Gordon Brown’s ex-special adviser, Kirsty McNeill.
3.15 a.m. Bristol Central
Thangam Debonnaire won the old Bristol West seat here in 2019 by a margin of more than 28,000 votes but boundary changes mean her majority has been slashed to about half of that. She is battling to avoid becoming the only shadow cabinet casualty of the night against Carla Denyer, the co-leader of the Greens.
3.30 a.m. Chichester and another ‘Portillo moment’
Gillian Keegan’s traditionally blue Chichester seat is now an ambitious Lib Dem targets. The Education Secretary won here with a stonking majority of 21,490 in 2019, but if Sir Ed Davey’s party are having a good night then she could be in real trouble here.
3.30 a.m. Jeremy Hunt in Godalming and Ash
This could be the biggest scalp of the night. No sitting Chancellor has ever lost their seat before but Jeremy Hunt could become the first. Having represented the old constituency of South West Surrey since 2005, his fears are demonstrated by the sheer amount of time he has spent on the campaign trail in this formerly safe Conservative seat. Hunt’s majority in 2019 was 8,817. Can the Liberal Democrats pull it off?
3.30 a.m. Penny Mordaunt in Portsmouth North
Around the time that Jeremy Hunt’s seat is expected to declare, we should know whether or not Penny Mordaunt has survived too. The Leader of the House has been touted by many as a potential replacement should Sunak make his expected departure in the wake of an election defeat. But her majority of 15,780 in Portsmouth North looks in danger, however, as polls suggest she is neck-and-neck with Labour’s Amanda Martin.
3.30 a.m. Grant Shapps in Welwyn Hatfield
The Defence Secretary and potential leadership contender is another Conservative ‘big beast’ who could be in danger in his Hertfordshire seat. Shapps was first elected here in 2005 but is defending a majority of 10,773 and Labour needs a swing of 10.4 percentage points to win.
4 a.m. Richard Tice in Boston and Skegness
One of Reform’s two key target seats of the night. Party chairman Richard Tice is taking on Matt Warman in a seat which won the latter won with more than 75 per cent of the vote in 2019.
4 a.m. Clacton
Arguably the most hotly anticipated race of the night. At his eighth attempt of trying, will Nigel Farage finally be able to win a coveted seat in Parliament? If yes, the fallout could be seismic – Conservatives up and down the country will be watching this one with bated breath. Farage is up against Giles Watling, who succeeded Farage’s old rival Douglas Carswell here in 2017.
4 a.m. Dartford bellwether
This Kent constituency is the longest-running ‘bellwether’ seat in the country. Since 1964, whichever party wins Dartford has also gone on to form the government. Tory candidate Gareth Johnson is defending a majority here of 14,704, with Labour needing a swing of 15.9 points to take the seat.
4 a.m. Richmond and North Allerton
The Prime Minister’s revised seat has voted Tory since the Tamworth manifesto. Only a truly devastating night could produce anything other than a Conservative win here. But barring a Labour upset to produce the ‘Portillo moment’ to top all ‘Portillo moments’, this declaration will be worth watching as it will likely prompt Rishi Sunak’s first public comments of the night.
4.15 a.m. Holborn and St Pancras
Keir Starmer’s victory is all but guaranteed here. But his speech, delivered minutes after Rishi Sunak’s, will likely be the first public words he makes on the day he becomes Prime Minister.
4.15 a.m. Uxbridge and South Ruislip
Boris Johnson’s old seat was hotly contested in the 2023 by-election, a race dominated by Ulez rows. In a rematch of that contest, the re-selected Labour candidate Danny Beales will try to overturn Tory Steve Tuckwell’s slim majority of just 495.
4.30 a.m. Lee Anderson in Ashfield
In Nottinghamshire, Ashfield residents will find out if Conservative-turned-Reform candidate Lee Anderson has held the seat he won by a majority of 5,733 in 2019. This is a fascinating three-way split with Rhea Keehn hoping to retake the seat for Labour.
4.30 a.m. Jacob Rees-Mogg in Somerset
If Jacob Rees-Mogg were to be defeated in Somerset North East and Hanham, it will likely be one of the most symbolic moments of the election. The Lib Dems are seeking to turn the rural South West orange, while Labour have chosen Dan Norris, the current mayor of the West of England.
5.30 a.m. South West Norfolk
As the sun rises over the Norfolk Broads, Liz Truss will wait to find out her fate. With a majority of 26,195, she ought to be safe in the safe she has represented since 2010. But former Tory rival James Bagge has made waves by standing as an independent.
5.30 a.m. Finchley and Golders Green
Labour’s Sarah Sackman is taking on David Cameron’s former aide Alex Deane in a potentially symbolic result in this North London constituency. Finchley has a large Jewish population and was famously Margaret Thatcher’s old seat. After the trauma of the Corbyn years, a Labour win here would carry special significance.
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