Tomorrow, voters will go to the polls in Sir Keir Starmer’s first big electoral test as Prime Minister. Across England, there are 1,641 wards, 14 county councils, eight unitary authorities, six mayors and one parliamentary constituency up for grabs. Nine months after coming to power, Labour’s honeymoon period has worn off – and voters turning out tomorrow could make their feelings known. It is the smaller parties which are widely expected to benefit in this set of local polls: namely the Lib Dems and Reform UK.
Below are ten races to keep an eye on:
West of England mayoral election – expected 2 a.m.
The West of England mayoral role received unexpected prominence this month after it was revealed that the Labour incumbent and MP for North East Somerset and Hanham, Dan Norris, was arrested on suspicion of rape and other sex offences. Norris had already made clear he would not be standing for re-election, and Labour’s candidate is Helen Godwin, an ex-Bristol City Councillor who served for five years between 2016 and 2021.
This is a genuine four-way race. The Liberal Democrats are expected to do well, while growing support for the Greens (co-leader Carla Denyer is the Bristol Central MP) could harm the Labour vote. Candidates of interest include the Greens’ Mary Page – who was once married to Tony Lee, the former CCHQ boss charged with election-related gambling offenses – and Reform’s Aaron Banks of Leave EU fame.
Runcorn and Helsby parliamentary by-election – expected 3 a.m.
The result of the Runcorn by-election will set the tone for the rest of the day, with this poll arguably the most significant. Ex-Labour MP Mike Amesbury was sentenced in February after footage emerged of him punching a constituent outside a local pub last year. Amesbury was popular in the area and won his seat last July with a staggering 52 per cent of the vote. Back then, Reform won just 18 per cent – but Farage’s party has been relentlessly campaigning and has high hopes to snatch the seat.
Greater Lincolnshire mayoral election – expected 3.30 a.m.
This new combined county authority will elect its first mayor on Friday. This area has traditionally been deep blue Tory, with the council oscillating between the Conservatives and no overall control in recent years. But Reform has high hopes, after Richard Tice won his Boston here last July. Their candidate is ex-Tory minister Andrea Jenkyns, who defected to Farage’s party in November. The Tories did well in the area last July, but a YouGov poll has put Jenkyns on 40 per cent versus their 25. It’ll be the key Tory v Reform battle of the night.
Doncaster mayoral election – expected 5 a.m.
The only Labour-controlled council up for election, Doncaster will see voters vote on their local authority mayor as well as city councillors. This race will be between Starmer’s party and Reform, which has its eye on the red-wall area. This election is thought to be Farage’s best chance at winning a council majority – although Starmer’s party does hold nearly three-quarters of the seats. Meanwhile Labour’s Ros Jones is hoping to cling onto her mayoral role for a fourth consecutive term.
Durham county council election – expected 1 p.m.
This was one of the shock results in 2021 when it switched to ‘no overall control’ after a century of being run by Starmer’s party. Labour hopes to win it back this year – and is just short of a majority, with 56 seats of 126 as of last year’s locals. Reform fancy it too but there is a strong set of independent candidates here that may make things harder for Farage’s party. A key Labour-Reform battleground.
Hull and East Yorkshire mayoral election – expected 2.30 p.m.
Another new mayoralty, Reform pulled out all the stops at its candidate launch. Luke Campbell, the ex-Olympic gold medallist, is one of Farage’s best hopes of winning the mayoralty. But the Lib Dems have a strong local presence and – in another four-way contest – could be the ones to deny Reform a victory on points.
Cambridgeshire and Peterborough mayoral election – expected 3 p.m.
Another genuine four-way contest. Paul Bristow, the ex-Tory MP for Peterborough, the favourite here, having campaigned heavily on the theme of ‘Cambridgeshire first, party second.’ Labour mayor Nik Johnson, a consultant paediatrician, is stepping down from the top job after winning the seat from the Conservative incumbent James Palmer in 2021.
Derbyshire county council election – expected 4.30 p.m.
The Tory-held council has swung between the Conservatives and Labour since the 1970s and Labour is hopeful it could win it back this time around. Starmer’s party currently controls Derby city council and has both a Labour mayor in the East Midlands and a Labour police and crime commissioner too. This, combined with an expected collapse in the Tory vote in these council elections stand the party of government in a strong position. While Reform is picking up support in this area, Farage’s party could eat into support for the Conservatives, boosting Labour’s chances.
Oxfordshire county council election – expected 5 p.m.
The Lib Dems are hoping for a good night here. Davey’s party already runs Oxfordshire county council as a minority but is expecting to strengthen its support here, with hopes for a similar outcome in Cambridgeshire. Five of the seven Oxfordshire MPs proudly sport the colour yellow, while a recent survey saw the Lib Dems record its highest ever vote share in a More in Common poll, at 17 per cent.
Kent country council election – expected 7 p.m.
Both the Liberal Democrats and Reform have strong footholds in Kent. Currently the Tories have a majority, but a huge MRP poll by Electoral Calculus suggests that Reform could take control this year. The result may also help indicate just how effective Reform’s rhetoric on immigration has been of late, given Kent’s coastal location.
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