Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Steerpike

Jeremy Corbyn downgrades his election forecast

Oh dear. Given that Jeremy Corbyn is reported to have told Glastonbury organiser Michael Eavis this summer that he would be in Downing Street by Christmas, time is running out for the Labour leader. Perhaps that’s why he has downgraded his prediction to a definitely maybe. Grazia – the weekly glossy – has snagged the Labour leader’s first interview with a women’s magazine. In the interview, Corbyn strikes a hopeful tone as he predicts ‘there will probably be another election in the next 12 months’  and he ‘will probably win’: ‘I’m ready to be Prime Minister tomorrow.’ With two polls putting the Conservatives ahead of Labour for the first time since the

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: May’s Brexit Britain is a fantasy island

Theresa May’s Brexit statement in the Commons yesterday ‘told us a great deal about what has happened already,’ says the Daily Telegraph. But the detail on ‘what happens next’ was thin on the ground. Once again, the PM ‘reaffirmed that the UK is leaving the EU on March 29, 2019’. Yet this told us little we didn’t already know when Article 50 was triggered six months ago. ‘The question now to be resolved is not whether we are leaving but on what basis,’ says the Telegraph. So what does Britain actually want from Brexit? The PM said, not for the first time, that the aim was to secure a “bespoke

Austria’s Sebastian Kurz should be praised for refusing to ignore the populists

Today the world’s youngest leader takes his place at the top table of European politics, as Sebastian Kurz becomes Chancellor of Austria at the age of just 31. However the toasts in Brussels (and Berlin) will be distinctly muted, for Kurz and his centre-right People’s Party have formed a controversial coalition with Austria’s hard-right Freedom Party – a party shunned by centrist parties throughout the EU. It’s a sign that populism is alive and well in Central Europe. So is this new government merely an Austrian anomaly? Or does it mark the advent of a Pan-European trend? The specifics of this coalition may be peculiarly Austrian, but the generalities reveal

Ross Clark

Theresa May must still be prepared to call the EU’s Brexit bluff

As the Brexit ‘war cabinet’ meets this morning to discuss what future trading relationship Britain would like with the EU there is a grim inevitability about the next few months. We know what we want – free trade with the EU, in services as well as goods, as well as free trade with the rest of the world. The EU, as it has made clear in recent days, has other ideas. Its plan is to allow us a Canada-style deal – a free trade deal in goods but not services, something which will be completely unacceptable to Britain, with our financial services-dominated economy. Moreover, it is going to try to

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: The new Brexit divide

‘Remain’ and ‘Leave’ is no longer the basis of the divide over Brexit, says the Daily Telegraph. Instead, the new split is over to what extent post-Brexit Britain should ‘mirror what the EU does on trade and services’ or whether the UK should ‘plough its own furrow in the world’. 18 months on from the referendum, this key debate has not been ‘addressed by the Government’. ‘Convergers’ – those who want Britain’s trade arrangements to remain broadly in line with the status quo – ‘have the upper hand’ at the moment, says the Telegraph. Philip Hammond has confirmed this with his vow for Britain to maintain, at least in the

Katy Balls

I’m a Celeb’s Toff highlights the Conservatives’ youth problem

The Conservatives have a youth problem. The average age of a Tory party member is 57, Labour leads by 35 points among 18 – 24-year-old voters and – to add the cherry on the cake – those young conservatives who do wish to get involved have no obvious party youth organisation to join. So, surely it must have been a case of warm prosecco at the ready in CCHQ when the winner of this year’s I’m a Celebrity… Get Me Out of Here was announced. The newly crowned queen of the ITV reality show – which boasts viewing figures over 12m – is not only a Tory but a young one

Steerpike

Another day, another Labour MP who won’t befriend Tories

Here we go again. Earlier this year, Laura Pidcock caused a stir when the newly-elected Labour MP announced that she could never be friends with a Tory MP. The reason? ‘I feel disgusted at the way they’re running this country, it’s visceral – I’m not interested in being cosy.’ Although Pidcock has since come under criticism for her narrow world view, it seems she is far from alone in her approach. Appearing on Pienaar’s Politics, her Labour comrade Mike Amesbury rules out keeping Tories as friends: JP: Could you have a conservative as a friend? MA: No So much for a kinder, gentler politics…

Steerpike

Jacob Rees-Mogg wins a celebrity backer

Although Theresa May looks safe in No 10 for the time being, chatter continues behind closed doors over who her eventual successor could be. While Gavin Williamson and Boris Johnson are both seen to have difficulty hiding their own leadership ambitions, it’s Jacob Rees-Mogg who most regularly tops the polls when it comes to Tory members’ preference for leader. Should he decide to take the plunge, he need look no further than jungle queen Georgia ‘Toff’ Toffolo for his first celebrity endorsement. The Made in Chelsea star – who just won I’m a Celebrity Get Me Out of Here! has given an interview to the Sunday Times in which she

Steerpike

Diane Abbott’s selective memory

Oh dear. This morning Diane Abbott appeared on the Andrew Marr show to discuss – among other things – Labour’s Brexit position. Given that the party’s official EU stance appears to change on a daily basis, viewers were intrigued to hear the shadow home secretary claim that the Labour Party ‘doesn’t support a second referendum’: ‘We’ve never supported it, we don’t now’ Shadow Home Secretary @HackneyAbbott tells @MarrShow that she does not want second #Brexit referendum for electorate #Marrhttps://t.co/oAObivTdil pic.twitter.com/1XiuGoOEHC — BBC News (UK) (@BBCNews) December 17, 2017 If only the memo has reached… Diane Abbott. Just last month the very same Diane Abbott was reported, by the Guardian, to

James Forsyth

Unofficial deadline of mid-January for working out UK’s end-state negotiating position

On Monday, the Brexit inner Cabinet will finally have a proper discussion on what kind of trade deal with the EU, the UK wants. But this meeting won’t settle the question. Rather, it will be the start of a discussion. Inside government, I write in The Sun this morning, an unofficial deadline of mid-January has been set for working out a position agreed by the whole Cabinet. The aim is that this should give the UK government a chance to work out its negotiating strategy before talks proper start in March. Privately, senior figures in Downing Street admit that the government wasn’t as prepared as it should have been for

Martin Vander Weyer

Instead of schmoozing at City parties, this year I’m Sarah the Cook in panto

Last Christmas I offered you a cruel satire about a boardroom big-shot whose career went so awry that he ended up as a pantomime dame. So perhaps there’s justice in the fact that this year, that’s what’s happened to me. Instead of schmoozing the City’s festive party round, I’m cross–dressing nightly on a Yorkshire stage as Sarah the Cook in Dick Whittington and His Cat. The original Whittington, four times Lord Mayor of London between 1397 and 1419, was a mercer who exported English cloth across the North Sea, importing silks and velvets in return. But in panto, Dick and his crew turn their backs on our European partners and sail

Steerpike

Watch: Question Time audience member accuses Nicky Morgan of treachery

This week the ‘stop Brexit’ campaign went into overdrive after the government suffered its first defeat on the EU withdrawal bill – with 11 Tory rebels voting to back an amendment calling for a meaningful vote on the final deal. The whips now have their work cut out trying to prevent a second rebellion next week on Theresa May’s own amendment to put the exit date in the bill. However, should Chief Whip Julian Smith’s charm offensive fail again, perhaps the government could look to last night’s Question Time for back-up. With David Dimbleby joined in Barnsley by a panel comprised of Nicky Morgan, Labour’s Rebecca Long-Bailey, Professor Robert Winston

Steerpike

Chief Whip’s save the date

After the government suffered its first defeat in the Commons on Wednesday, questions are being asked over what and who was to blame. Aside from the 11 Brexit rebels who chose to back an amendment calling for a ‘meaningful’ vote on the final deal, some are pointing the finger of blame at the new Chief Whip, Julian Smith. With a vote next week on Theresa May’s amendment to put the date of Britain’s exit into the bill, the pressure is on for Smith to prevent any further embarrassment to the Prime Minister. Happily, Smith appears to be taking things in his stride. Taking inspiration from Prince Harry and Meghan Markle

Katy Balls

Theresa May’s next big task is getting her own MPs on side

It’s official. Theresa May’s Christmas wish has been granted. At the EU council meeting today, EU leaders agreed to move Brexit talks on to the second phase of talking trade. Announcing the news on social media, Donald Tusk, the European Council president, sent his ‘congratulations’ to Theresa May. EU leaders agree to move on to the second phase of #Brexit talks. Congratulations PM @theresa_may — Charles Michel (@eucopresident) December 15, 2017 Moving forward, the EU withdrawal agreement will now be formalised and  talks will move on to the new relationship between the UK and EU post-Brexit. The first issue to be discussed will be the transition period with Brussels insistent

Tom Goodenough

What the papers say: In praise of the Tory rebels

EU leaders look set to formally approve a move on to the next stage in Brexit talks today in Brussels. Yet back home, this week saw the government suffer its first defeat on Brexit legislation in Parliament. So will the actions of the Tory rebels leave the government hamstrung? The Tory rebellion may prove to be a ‘momentous vote foreshadowing serious cross-party opposition’ to Britain’s departure from the EU, says the FT. Or it could just be ‘fury and thunder signifying nothing’. What it certainly shows though, according to the FT, is that Parliament is willing to stick up for itself. The ‘Brexit mutineers’ ‘should be congratulated’, says the paper.

What does 2018 have in store for investors?

As 2017 fades into the distance with its ongoing Brexit negotiations, a falling pound and a rising Bitcoin, will there be more of the same for investors in 2018? I think so. Perhaps another financial crisis, as the crypto-currencies topple the existing global banking infrastructure? Another rise in UK interest and a continued move away from QE to quantitative tightening (QT) by the global central banks? So, what do the fund managers think? The 2017 fund manager poll by the Association of Investment Companies (AIC) found managers remaining positive on the outlook for equities in 2018, but Brexit and interest rates are causing them concern. Equities remain the asset class

Isabel Hardman

Brexit is becoming a ‘just war’, with predictable consequences

Brexit could split the Tory party. So many people wrote articles arguing this before and after David Cameron called the EU referendum, but it was generally assumed that the split would involve disgruntled eurosceptics claiming they had been betrayed after Britain voted to stay in the bloc after all. It was also generally assumed that the split would at least involve something quite serious. But today MPs are locked in a war of words over whether or not they should get a ‘meaningful’ vote on the final Brexit deal. Those in favour defeated the government last night: Theresa May’s first serious Commons defeat since the snap election. Stephen Hammond was

Katy Balls

How can May stop the Brexit mutineers from becoming the new Tory ‘bastards’?

The decision made by 11 Conservative MPs to rebel and back Dominic Grieve’s amendment for a ‘meaningful vote’ on the final Brexit deal has received a mixed reaction in the Conservative party. Nadine Dorries – a one-time serial rebel herself – has suggested they ought to be deselected, while Henry Smith managed a slightly more nuanced tone on the Daily Politics when he said the rebels had ‘betrayed’ voters. Add to this, several hostile front pages naming and shaming the rebels and there’s a feeling that ostracism is the preferred way to deal with them. As Robert Peston writes on Coffee House, in practical terms the Brexit rebellion is an

Ross Clark

Theresa May should have backed down in her Brexit battle with Parliament

This morning has brought predictable outrage about Tory ‘traitors’. The Prime Minister has been undermined, Guy Verhofstadt has had his fun describing it as a ‘good day for democracy’. The government has been reduced to damage-limitation, suggesting that last night’s defeat – which means that Parliament will now have the final say on a Brexit deal – won’t derail its plans. That is true. Allowing Parliament the final judgement on the deal almost certainly won’t alter the outcome: Britain will leave the EU on 29 March 2019 with whatever deal the government is able to cut with Michel Barnier and his team. Parliament will not vote it down because the