Politics

Oh dear. Although Leave are currently speeding ahead of Remain in the polls, now is not the time for the Out campaign to rest on their laurels. Alas Priti Patel’s performance on the Today show this morning is unlikely to do them any favours. The work and pensions minister was taken to task by Mishal Husain on the BBC  programme over Vote Leave’s spending promises. When Husain put to Patel that the Out campaign were making spending promises they lacked the authority to see through, a defensive Patel responded by putting in a robotic performance. She repeatedly said ‘let me be clear’ without shining much light on whether money would go where

Two polls putting Leave well clear of Remain – five points according to yesterday’s Guardian/ICM poll, seven points  according to a Times/YouGov poll  – have seen bookies slash their odds on Brexit, implying that it’s more likely than ever before – as shown by the chart above. A few weeks ago, the betting markets thought there was an 18 per cent chance of Leave: now it’s 41 per cent. This does mean the markets think Remain is the more likely outcome, due to the status quo effect: Whatever people tell pollsters, they tend to stick to the devil they know in referenda. The above chart is calculated by taking an average of all bookies’ odds, which

We are definitely now in squeaky bum territory in the EU referendum. Leave has a seven point lead in today’s Times/YouGov poll, while yesterday the Guardian/ICM poll put Leave six points ahead. Meanwhile the Sun has splashed on its backing for Leave. It isn’t a huge surprise that the Sun is supporting Britain leaving the European Union, given the stance it has taken in its leading articles over the past few months. But the newspaper still clearly sees that there is momentum behind Brexit, and that it will not look foolish or out of touch with its readers in supporting it. And that is what should worry David Cameron. John Curtice

Anyone with any more corkers in their armoury should take note there’s less than a fortnight left in which to release them. This week did see George Osborne finally challenged on why he and David Cameron keep pretending that a country they have always campaigned to bring into the EU will never in fact come into the EU. Questioned by Andrew Neil about David Cameron’s 2010 speech promising to ‘pave the road from Ankara to Brussels’ George Osborne said: ‘Well I was 16 years old when Turkey first applied to join the European Union, I’m now 45 and I don’t think it’s going to happen in my lifetime because sadly

David Cameron is now having to face questions on what he would do if, as looks far more likely than he would have liked at this stage, Britain votes to leave the European Union. As James predicted in his cover piece this week, Cameron will have to row back on predictions that he made about Brexit putting a bomb under the economy in order to calm nerves in the event of a Leave vote. But with the polls the way they are, the Prime Minister is already having to answer questions about whether he really believes his own warnings now, as he did on this morning’s Marr Show. Cameron can

Denmark has been basking in a glorious June heatwave this past week, hastening the annual migration cycle.  ‘Summer Danes’ are a delicate subgenus of the species.  We roam the planet’s warmer regions every year between September and May, absenting ourselves from Nordic noir winters.  But mercury rising brings us home; and last week was the warmest early June week in recorded history. So I made my annual pilgrimage to our idyllic local fishing village, Gilleleje, at the northernmost tip of Zealand, a few dozen miles north of Copenhagen. Though still gorgeous, Gilleleje isn’t what it used to be.  Among its many glories, including its beautiful natural harbour, home to Denmark’s fourth-largest