Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Monday

Sebastian Payne

Ukip struggling in key target seats

Ukip is expected to do well in a handful of seats, but where? Lord Ashcroft has polled four marginal seats where he’s previously found the people’s army doing well. Two of the seats are top targets for Ukip — Castle Point and Great Yarmouth — but the Tory peer has found that the party has failed to move into first place with under two weeks to go. In Castle Point, where Ukip launched its election campaign earlier this year, Ashcroft has found the Tories are now ahead by five points. There has been a 17 per cent swing to Ukip but it’s not enough to put them into first place. Use the

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

PM pumps up the passion after porridge and panic

David Cameron is known as the ‘essay crisis’ Prime Minister, and today he did little to dispel that impression. With just 10 days to go until the election, Cameron produced a passionate, excited speech in which he insisted that he was ‘pumped’ about the election and about fighting Labour. Afterwards, when asked what he’d had for breakfast, he roared ‘PORRIDGE!’ with alarming fervour. This is the second furiously enthusiastic speech the Prime Minister has given in as many days, and it represents a significant shift in his tone after accusations of a boring and lacklustre campaign. Boring is, of course, the way Lynton Crosby would rather have it. In 1992,

Robert Smith

Teflon Theresa and outraged Yvette battle over immigration and police cuts

For the longest serving Home Secretary in 50 years, Theresa May’s record in government is not without its blemishes. On this afternoon’s Daily Politics home affairs debate she made a clear recognition of the government’s failure to meet the Conservative manifesto promise to reduce immigration to the ‘tens of thousands’. May said: ‘We’ve accepted that we have failed to meet that particular target… [But] if you say to me, Andrew, that there’s nothing we have done on immigration, then you’re wrong. What we have done is not met that particular target. ‘Net migration from outside the EU is lower than it was in 2010, but one of the reasons is

Steerpike Steerpike

Did David Cameron take a dig at the BBC’s Robert Peston?

After Mr S’s colleague Camilla Swift revealed how the BBC misquoted David Cameron as saying he loved foxhunting when he appeared on the Andrew Marr Show, they were accused by some of showing ‘left-wing bias’. Now a new row is brewing between the Tories and the BBC. Perhaps still angry about the BBC’s behaviour two weeks ago when Marr interrogated Cameron about his ‘favourite’ sport, this morning the Prime Minister appeared to take a dig at the corporation’s economics editor. Speaking at the Conservatives’ small business launch, Cameron told small business owners: ‘You are responsible for turn around. Small businesses, entrepreneurs, the grafters. A really big thank you for what you’ve done. 5,000 businesses wrote in to

Steerpike Steerpike

David Cameron admits he cries at the Sound of Music

This morning the PM turned on the passion in a shouty performance in front of a room full of accountants. Complaints from the lower orders about a lack of zing to the campaign have clearly reached the top of the Tory tree as the new emotional Prime Minister was not done there. Cameron went on to admit in an interview with Classic FM that he cries when he watches the Sound of Music, when those brave Austrian patriots declare their love for their national flower: ‘I do cry in films, The Sound Of Music. As soon as we get on to Edelweiss I’m reaching for the Kleenex.’ With the songs lyrics including the line ‘Bless

Sebastian Payne

Tories six points ahead in new Ashcroft poll and three points ahead according to ICM

Two new polls out today have the Tories ahead. Lord Ashcroft’s latest national poll says the Conservatives currently have a six point lead at per cent — up two points from last week — while Labour remains on 30 per cent. Ashcroft has Ukip down slightly to 11 per cent and the Liberal Democrats are on nine per cent. The Guardian/ICM also put the Tories ahead in their new poll today, putting the Conservatives on 35 per cent and Labour on 32 per cent. It’s worth noting that both the Ashcroft and ICM polls were conducted by telephone. There are two other polls out today, conducted online, which show the

Alex Massie Alex Massie

This is a narrow-cast election, not a national contest

This continues to be a most remarkable election. I can’t recall any other contest in which so many parties were speaking to so many different audiences, many of them niche. This, to use a ghastly piece of jargon, has been a narrow-cast election. There is no UK-wide conversation; everything is local and particular. It’s spawned some notable election literature. I’ve been forwarded one such piece of mail, delivered to lord knows how many voters in Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk (the finest constituency in the land, by the way). This is what it looks like: It reads: Dear Resident, I’m writing to thank you for the tremendous support that I have

Sebastian Payne

Election podcast special: 10 days to go

The general election campaign has entered the final stretch and each day between now and polling day, we’ll be producing a short lunchtime podcast looking at the day’s campaign developments. Today, Fraser Nelson, James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and I discuss Labour’s new housing pledges, the 5,000 small businesses backing the Tories, the hysterical talk of the SNP threat — as well as the unfathomable state of the opinion polls. You can subscribe to the View from 22 through iTunes and have it delivered to your computer or iPhone every week, or you can use the player below:

Tom Slater Tom Slater

The Greens’ regressive message has lost them student votes

‘If you’re not a socialist before you’re twenty-five, you have no heart; if you are a socialist after twenty-five, you have no head,’ goes the old, oft-misattributed saying. But if you’re a Green party supporter on a university campus today, you’re more likely to have no friends. It was reported last week that the Green party’s share of the student vote has almost halved in the past two months – falling from a peak of 28 per cent to a paltry 15. In January, the Greens’ vote was creeping up on Labour (the consistent student favourites) but it has now plummeted below even that of the so-called ‘Tory scum’ you hear so

Douglas Murray

If Ed Miliband makes ‘Islamophobia’ illegal, I volunteer to test the new law immediately

I am out of the country at the moment and I see that Ed Miliband has used the opportunity to ‘say’ in an interview with the ‘Muslim News’ that he will outlaw ‘Islamophobia’ if he becomes Prime Minister. I use ‘say’ because ‘Muslim News’ has never seemed to me an especially reputable outlet for news, Muslim or otherwise. And I say ‘Islamophobia’ in scare quotes because, well, the term deserves them. There are many things to say about this, but allow me confine myself to three points: If Ed Miliband does become Prime Minister and chooses to make ‘Islamophobia’ illegal would he mind letting us know what he thinks ‘Islamophobia’ is?

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Note from Mandelson’s firm warns that SNP will drag Labour to the left

Peter Mandelson and Ed Miliband appeared to have been undergoing a certain rapprochement during this campaign. Mandelson declared recently that Miliband has ‘way exceeded my expectations‘. But a briefing note from Global Counsel, of which Mandelson is chairman, is bound to be seized on by the Tories. The note is entitled ‘Why the SNP will win whatever happens on May 7th’ and goes on to discuss what might happen if the Nationalists end up holding the balance of power in a hung parliament. It warns that ‘English dissatisfaction is likely to grow over time with the consequences of Labour government being sustained in power by the SNP’. It also predicts

Sebastian Payne

Campaign kick-off: 10 days to go

With just under two weeks to go until polling day, the promises, threats and reassurances will kick up a notch as we enter the final stretch of the campaign. The Tories have another 5,000 businesses to back up their case for reelection, while Labour is turning to its favourite weapon of market intervention towards housing. To help guide you through the melée of stories and spin, here is a summary of today’s main election stories. 1. Building for Britain The Tories have tried to paint themselves as the party of home ownership throughout this campaign. But Labour is attempting to seize that mantle with several new policies on housing today.

Sunday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Ed Miliband is right – first-time buyers need a tax cut

I hate to admit it, but Ed Miliband has a point about the need for raising the stamp duty threshold to £300,000 for first-time buyers. (The FT has the story tomorrow, and Sky News has the £300k detail). The tax was invented to give the government a slice of the more expensive housing transactions –  the higher-rate threshold of £250k was introduced in 1997 when the average house cost £60k. Now, the average house is closer to £250k. This failure of stamp duty thresholds to rise with the market has been a way for Chancellors to cash in on the asset bubble. Stamp duty cost homebuyers £9.5bn last year – Osborne plans to jack this up

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Scotland’s two tribes are more divided than ever – they see reality differently

Expectations just keep increasing for the SNP. Today’s Panelbase poll for the Sunday Times puts the nationalists on an eye-popping 48 percent of the vote in Scotland. Labour activists and candidates report better that on the fabled doorsteps the response they’re getting is much better than that recorded by the opinion pollsters. Doubtless, in some constituencies, this is true. But it seems unlikely to be enough. The ship will not go down with all hands but there will still, it seems, be few survivors. This remains a strange election. Ordinarily I’d say the straw-clutchers are hopelessly mistaken. The numbers do not lie. They are worth more than anecdotal evidence and gut-checking

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Cameron’s answer to the passion question

David Cameron has been bugged in this campaign by the question of whether he’s passionate enough, of whether he really wants it. When Fraser and I asked him about why so many people aren’t sure of whether he has the passion for it a few days back, he replied, ‘I don’t know. There is something about me—I always manage to portray a calm smoothness or something.’ He then went on to explain why as a Conservative he wants to know what the plan is, not just what the passion is. As he quipped, ‘plan plus carrying out a plan equals dream. Dream plus rhetoric equals chaos.’ But in a speech

James Forsyth James Forsyth

This election will be decided by the undecideds

The polls could hardly be closer than they are at the moment and the parliamentary arithmetic looks like it is going to be remarkably tight, there’ll be only a few seats in it as to whether it’ll be Cameron or Miliband as Prime Minister. Yet, campaign aides on both sides have been struck by one thing: the large number of undecideds. One recent poll suggested that as many as one in five of those who intend to vote are still undecided. How this group breaks will determine the result. As one close Miliband ally put it to me, ‘The defining moment of this campaign hasn’t happened yet’. The Tory hope

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

George Osborne has squeezed more from the rich than any UK Chancellor, ever

The Sunday Times Rich List is out today – and it says a lot about Britain. Mainly: what type of country are we? One that reads that supplement with admiration, or with outrage? I’d argue that the former, but this runs contrary to the bovine populism being encouraged by Labour. Ed Miliband wants to raise the top rate of tax to 52 per cent which, as he knows, will raise next to no money. The real purpose of that tax rise is to perform a basic populist manoeuvre: identify an enemy (the highly-paid) and then promise to hurt them. Today, it’s landlords: rent would be capped by the government. Like all

Isabel Hardman Isabel Hardman

David Cameron insists Tory campaign has ‘the most positive vision there could possibly be’

There’s nothing wrong with negative campaigning in an election. If you think your opponents would damage the country, then you should point it out. What’s wrong with negative campaigning is when it’s the only sort of campaigning you’re doing, or when the balance appears to be tipping in its favour in terms of your key messages and big attention-seeking posters. The Tories are currently facing accusations that they are doing too much negative campaigning, and so today David Cameron tried to defend that campaign when he appeared on Sky’s Murnaghan programme. He said: ‘And to me, people talk about this campaign, there’s nothing more positive than saying to people: let’s

Camilla Swift Camilla Swift

Andrew Marr apologises for misquoting David Cameron on foxhunting

Is foxhunting David Cameron’s favourite sport? Does he ‘love it’, as Andrew Marr quoted him as saying on his BBC show last Sunday? As I pointed out earlier this week, no, he doesn’t. The quote in question never actually existed, and certainly not in the magazine that it was attributed it to – the quarterly one of the Countryside Alliance. But, to his credit, Andrew Marr this morning apologised to his viewers for misleading them. As he said: ‘You may have noticed that the Prime Minister looked mildly disconcerted when I put to him a quote about his views on fox hunting. Well, not surprisingly. It turns out he never

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Miliband avoids the Scottish question

On the Andrew Marr show this morning, Ed Miliband fended off questions about any post-election deal with the Scottish National Party. He had two lines of defence. First, he said he wasn’t going to pre-empt the election result and that he was fighting to win the election everywhere including Scotland. Second, he was adamant that ‘I’m not doing deals with the Scottish National Party’. But there was no explanation of how he would pilot legislation through the Commons without their support. listen to ‘Ed Miliband on the Andrew Marr Show’ on audioBoom When it came to the economy, Miliband refused to admit that the last Labour government spent too much,