Politics Archives

Friday

21 Nov 2014

Rochester points to a British general election where no one wins

Rochester is not a freak. It has given us a glimpse of what bookies now believe to be the lost likely outcome of the next election: that no one wins. I look at this in my Daily Telegraph column today. ‘All bets are off,’ said Nigel Farage after Mark Reckless prevailed in yesterday’s by-election. But that’s not quite right: bets are being made, and the balance of money points to ‘no overall control’. That is to say: a Prime Minister too unpopular to win a majority, and too toxic to be able to form a coalition. A minority government that can’t call an early election thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliaments

Isabel Hardman

Will there be more defections to Ukip?

Now that Ukip has bagged a seat that the Tories thought they could win, other would-be defectors may well be having a good long think about their chances. The fact that Mark Reckless only won Rochester with a 2,920 majority over the Conservatives may well lead wavering MPs to conclude that it isn’t safe to go over as their seats will be vulnerable once again in 2015. But then again they might conclude that all bets are off anyway, given Reckless wasn’t even supposed to win this seat. Michael Gove yesterday claimed he was 100% certain that there would be no more defections from his party to Nigel Farage’s tribe.

Sebastian Payne

Ukip’s Mark Reckless wins Rochester by-election

Rochester, Kent Mark Reckless has become Ukip’s second member of Parliament, winning the Rochester and Strood by-election with 16,687 votes – a majority of 2,920 – or 42 percent of the vote. It was a less resounding victory than some in the party were expecting, but Ukip have still managed to return an MP for a far less winnable seat than Clacton – Rochester was 271st on their target list. The Conservatives came a not-too-distant second with 35 percent, with Labour far-more-distant 17 percent and the Liberal Democrats way behind the Greens with a pathetic 349 votes. It was a pretty low turnout: 51 per cent. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/RMmcR/index.html”] Overall, it has not been a good night for any of

Sebastian Payne

One night in Rochester: how Ukip won and what comes next

How did Ukip steal their second seat from the Tories with a candidate as uninspiring as Mark Reckless? Now that he has begun work in the Commons alongside Douglas Carswell, here’s a reflection on the last 24 hours and how the party romped home. Mature Ukip Ask any Ukipper why the party won Rochester and the first answer will likely be about how much the party has matured — both in attitudes and the sophistication of its operation. Once, their electioneering efforts were entirely scattergun. Now, the kippers are now focused. Speaking to The Spectator in the early hours of Friday morning, Deputy Ukip leader Paul Nuttall explained how much the party

James Forsyth

Ukip on course for victory in Rochester – but no Tory panic

Counting is underway in the Rochester and Strood by-election and the early indications are that Ukip has won the seat on a turnout slightly over 50%. The result is expected between 3.30am and 4am, and my colleague Seb Payne will be tweeting updates throughout the night. This was a campaign that started with the Tories saying they could win—and many saying that they had to win, but ends with the discussion all being about how big the Ukip majority will be. Here’s the rub, though: there’s no sign yet that defeat will send the Tories into a full-on panic. Even Cameron-sceptic MPs are saying that this by-election defeat is ‘priced

Thursday

20 Nov 2014

Richard Madeley

Richard Madeley’s diary: Forgetting Tom Conti’s name, and other harrowing experiences

Oh God, it’s happened again. Another evening where I’m surrounded by people I know personally or have interviewed, and I can’t remember a single name. Multiple blanks. It’s a sort of self-fulfilling nervous tic — a phobia, almost. We were at a fundraiser at our kids’ former school in north London. For some reason, lots of celebs send their children there, including Jonathan Ross. He once joked that it’s the only school in London with a permanent posse of paparazzi hanging around outside the gates. Anyway, a veteran actor with grandchildren there strolled over for a chat. After he’d wandered off, I looked at my wife in mute appeal. ‘Tom

Sebastian Payne

Podcast special: was Emily Thornberry right to resign?

Just a few hours ago, Labour’s Emily Thornberry was protesting that she had no idea why anyone would take offence at her Tweeting a picture of a Rochester house with three St George flags and a white van. Now, the tweet has ended her front bench career – she has had to resign as Shadow Attonery General Emily Thornberry. Just why was Ed Milband so sensitive? And what will be the fallout of Ukip taking Rochester? James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and myself discuss this in a podcast special. listen to ‘Podcast special: Emily Thornberry’s resignation’ on audioBoom

James Forsyth

Emily Thornberry resigns over Rochester Tweet

Emily Thornberry has resigned from the shadow Cabinet for sending a Tweet that appeared to mock a Rochester voter who was flying several St George’s Cross from their window and had a white van parked outside. Thornberry’s resignation follows Miliband aides briefing that the leader was the angriest they’d ever seen him after being told about the tweet. All this shows just how sensitive Labour is to the charge that it is now a party run by a metropolitan elite who have little connection with the party’s traditional working class base. I suspect that if Miliband had not had the last few weeks that he has, Thornberry would have been

Isabel Hardman

Mark Reckless already arranging return to Commons as Ukip MP

This story first went out in tonight’s Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day’s political developments. Sign up here. Mark Reckless seems pretty confident of a win in today’s Rochester and Strood by-election – sources have told Coffee House that the Commons authorities have been asked whether he can be introduced as a Ukip MP tomorrow so that he can vote on Clive Efford’s NHS bill. When asked, Reckless told Coffee House: ‘In terms of the procedures, they are convoluted so I’ve asked other people to look at it in terms of what’s possible to do. Others are looking at those but I don’t know if they’ve reached

Sebastian Payne

Nigel Farage: ‘I think we’re going to win’ Rochester and Strood

Rochester, Kent With five hours before the polls close in Rochester and Strood, Nigel Farage is confident that Ukip will romp home to victory. Outside the Sweet Expectations shop on Thursday evening, the Ukip leader emerged with a pack of bon bons and brushed aside predictions of a landslide victory as ‘slightly over-egged’. Yet Farage appeared confident that Mark Reckless will become Ukip’s second MP. ‘I feel our vote is solid,’ he said ‘I think we’re going to win but I think it might be a bit closer than people think.’ With the prospect of a significant victory over the Tories, Farage was also keen to raise the importance of this by-election. ‘This matters

Isabel Hardman

Emily Thornberry exposes Labour’s agony in Rochester

The Tories expect to lose in Rochester tonight – and blame Labour. Had it not been imploding, they argue, the Ukip vote would not be so big. And why is it imploding? Enter Islington MP Emily Thornberry, who was’t really helping any late efforts by tweeting this ‘Image from Rochester.’ Within no time, this was being taken as a Londoner’s “snobby and derogatory” sneer at White Van Man: She has (sort of) explained herself to MailOnline here. But not to the satisfaction of Simon Danczuk, Labour MP for Rochdale:- “Everyone will know exactly what she meant by that comment. I think she was being derogatory and dismissive of the people. We all know what she

Isabel Hardman

Labour tries to avoid Commons humiliation over the West Lothian question

MPs are preparing to debate devolution this afternoon, with a motion from Dominic Raab which includes a call for a review of the Barnett formula and a resolution to the West Lothian question. It’s a backbench business debate, so it is not binding on the government, but it is causing trouble for a number of reasons. The first is that Raab has managed to get an impressive sweep of the political spectrum on his list of supporters for the amendment. It includes senior Tories such as 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady, former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (not someone who often agrees with Raab), and Andrew Mitchell. But it also has

Alex Massie

Farewell Alex Salmond, hello Nicola Sturgeon

And so the Age of Nicola dawns. Elected First Minister by the Scottish Parliament yesterday; sworn in this morning. Taking First Minister’s Questions this afternoon. Alex Salmond’s departure was a long drawn-out affair but it will not take Nicola Sturgeon anything like as long to leave her own distinct impression on Scottish politics. I am not sure why folk at Westminster thought the referendum defeat would plunge the SNP into crisis. That might have been the case if the result had been 65-35 but that, despite what some thought, was never, ever, a likely outcome. Senior SNP strategists knew winning might be difficult but they also reckoned that anything above

Brendan O’Neill

Free speech is so last century. Today’s students want the ‘right to be comfortable’

[audioplayer src=”http://rss.acast.com/viewfrom22/8f1c0b97-698e-45c6-b50a-84e0e4b3773a/media.mp3″ title=”Brendan O’Neill and Harriet Brown discuss the rise of the Stepford student” startat=41] Listen [/audioplayer] Don’t be a Stepford student — subscribe to The Spectator’s print and digital bundle for just £22 for 22 weeks. Have you met the Stepford students? They’re everywhere. On campuses across the land. Sitting stony-eyed in lecture halls or surreptitiously policing beer-fuelled banter in the uni bar. They look like students, dress like students, smell like students. But their student brains have been replaced by brains bereft of critical faculties and programmed to conform. To the untrained eye, they seem like your average book-devouring, ideas-discussing, H&M-adorned youth, but anyone who’s spent more than five

James Forsyth

Meet the new Queen of Scots: Nicola Sturgeon’s unstoppable rise

[audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_20_Nov_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”James Forsyth and Alex Massie discuss Scotland’s new First Minister” startat=730] Listen [/audioplayer]‘She sold out the Hydro arena faster than Kylie Minogue,’ said one awestruck unionist of Nicola Sturgeon this week. Scotland’s new first minister has come into office on a tide of support that many in Westminster find hard to imagine. Not only is she packing out concert venues, her party is also consistently scoring above 40 per cent in the polls. If she can keep this momentum going, she will rout Scottish Labour at the next general election. Defeat in the independence referendum has not halted the nationalists’ momentum — quite the opposite. The party stands

Martin Vander Weyer

A miracle: French hotels actually like dogs

The first time I checked in to a French hotel with a golden retriever — his name was Gregory, predecessor of the incumbent Douglas — I left him, clearly unhappy, in the bedroom when I went to dinner. Then I realised that every other party already in the dining room included a dog, in some cases a lapdog enjoying morsels direct from its mistress’s plate. So I fetched Gregory, shoved him under the tablecloth and told him to keep quiet. But each time a tasty dish went past, his big hairy head emerged and sniffed the air. Eventually the maitre d’hotel approached. ‘You’re in trouble now,’ I whispered (to Gregory).

Michael Lind

How America’s right wing is becoming a lot more like Britain’s

Washington DC [audioplayer src=”http://traffic.libsyn.com/spectator/TheViewFrom22_20_Nov_2014_v4.mp3″ title=”Michael Lind and Sebastian Payne discuss the growing similarities of the Britain and American right” startat=1350] Listen [/audioplayer]Amid all the commentary about the Republican party’s triumph in America’s midterm elections, a remarkable fact was ignored: in style and substance, the American right is rapidly becoming a lot more like Britain’s. And that might be the key to its success. In the last generation, American right-wingers have stood proudly apart from their counterparts in Europe, Britain, Canada and Australia. They were more religious, and more supportive of mass immigration. But that is changing. Exhibit A is the dwindling influence of the religious right in the US.

Ross Clark

London’s real Olympic legacy: paying to build the stadium twice

In 2006, on the day that the government’s estimated cost for the 2012 Olympics was jacked up from £2.75 billion to £4.25 billion, I promised to eat my hat on the steps of the Olympic stadium if the bill came to less than £10 billion. Although the official figure now stands at a mere £8.92 billion, it is a feast I am going to postpone, because we haven’t heard the last of Olympic overspending. Two weeks ago, the London Legacy Development Corporation announced that the value of the contract with Balfour Beatty to convert the stadium for use by West Ham Football Club is to be increased from £154 million to

Wednesday

19 Nov 2014

Lloyd Evans

PMQs sketch: Labour and Ed Miliband are the ones who are really out of touch

Ironic Tory roars greeted Miliband’s ascent to the vertical at PMQs today. He assumed his habitual spanked puppy look. It’s quite a sight, Ed’s expression of frosty endurance. Part dismay, part weariness, part moral indignation, it makes him look like a nun who’s just discovered her favourite choirboy reading a porn mag. On went the jeering and the cheering, and a change overcame Miliband’s mug. ‘I’ve got a joke for them,’ he remembered. His face softened. His eyes brightened. An experimental smirk stole across his lips. Then it hardened into a grin. And out came the quip. ‘Let’s see if they’re still cheering on Friday.’ Cameron improvised fast. ‘I make

Ed West

I have more respect for Labour politicians who defend their record on immigration than those who pander

Wonderful: Labour has a new slogan on immigration, which appears to be the Conservatives’ old slogan from 2005, the one that Labour said was racist. I have far more respect for any Labour politician who actually defends their record on mass immigration – only a fifth of which was from Europe, incidentally, although that gets at least four-fifths of the coverage – than those who goes along with the current fashion. Someone who said that diversity made us more tolerant and kinder and was culturally-enriching; and that the economic benefits, although they are more helpful to the rich than the poor, are worth the downsides. That mass immigration was a Left-wing thing

Unlock full access to The Spectator

Friday

Thursday

Wednesday