Politics Archives

Sunday

23 Nov 2014

Has the resurgent SNP scared Gordon Brown away from Westminster?

It’s being reported that Gordon Brown has decided not to fight the next general election. Odd timing, you might think, he’s had almost five years to make up his mind – so why bail now, just four months away from the dissolution of parliament? Such a delay puts his successor at a distinct disadvantage, with only a few weeks to become established in the constituency. The Sunday Mirror dutifully reports that a friend of Brown saying he wants to “go out on a high” after saving the union. I’d point to another factor – the extraordinary resurgence of the SNP (described by James Forsyth in this weeks magazine). This means that Brown might actually

Saturday

22 Nov 2014

James Forsyth

The politician who can fill a venue quicker than Kylie

What’s the most significant political story of the week, Ukip winning Rochester or Emily Thornberry’s resignation? Well, I suspect, it might be neither of them and that the really big event this week happened north of the border, Nicola Sturgeon being sworn in as First Minister. For the new SNP leader is riding a quite remarkable wave of popularity. Right now, she’s addressing a rally at the Glasgow Hydro, a 12,000 seat venue that she sold out faster than Kylie Minogue—what other politician in Britain could hope to do that? As I say in the column this week, what makes Sturgeon’s popularity all the more remarkable is that she

Douglas Murray

We’re too frightened of appearing ‘racist’ to have a debate about immigration

A rather typical 24 hours in the life of modern Britain. Everyone does another round of ‘we need to be able to talk about immigration.’ The main parties once again say (as though this were a great revelation to the rest of us) that it is not racist to talk about immigration. The Labour and Conservative representatives then go on the BBC’s Question Time and claim that the Ukip candidate (now Ukip MP) for Rochester and Strood is a racist. And a Labour shadow minister mocks the awfulness of people who fly the national flag. Meantime, if you scroll down the news stories you can read about the chief inspector of

Friday

21 Nov 2014

Sebastian Payne

Nigel Farage: I would love a Labour defector to join Ukip

Ukip’s victory in Rochester has lead to the inevitable question of ‘what next?’ for the party. Now that Nigel Farage has two representatives in the House of Commons, his main answer is shockingly more MPs. Douglas Carswell and Mark Reckless came from the Conservative Party, but there has been much chatter in Westminster about the possibility of a Labour defector. Frank Field and Austin Mitchell are just two of the names that are mentioned. Farage added credence to these rumours by acknowledging he has been in touch with a ‘few’ Labour people. Speaking to reporters in Rochester this morning, the Ukip leader said: ‘I would love a Labour defector because that would reinforce

Steerpike

Ed Miliband reveals he ‘feels respect’ whenever he sees a white van

The fallout from Emily Thornberry’s ‘snobbish’ photo of a flag-furnished house in Rochester looks like it still has plenty of gas. The house’s owner, Dan Ware, has travelled to Thornberry’s Islington house today in search of an apology. Thornberry, who resigned from the shadow cabinet yesterday following a furious conversation with Ed Miliband, has said she is ‘more than happy’ to meet Mr Ware. Nonetheless, a quick glance at some of Thornberry’s ‘favourite’ tweets over the last 24 hours suggests she hasn’t exactly repented of her actions: Miliband seems to be reaching full-blown panic mode, as his damage limitation starts to backfire spectacularly. He’s just stated that he ‘feels respect’ whenever he

James Forsyth

Thanks to Emily Thornberry’s resignation, the biggest losers from Rochester were Labour

Walk round the Commons today and it is striking that Tory MPs are in relatively good spirits while Labour ones looks distinctly more downcast. At first this seems odd, after all it is the Tories who have just lost another seat to Ukip. But in the battle of the weak that is British politics right now, Labour have had the worst of the past twenty four hours. Obviously, it is Ukip who have the best of it, but the Tories have come off rather less badly than Labour which is what counts for relative success in Westminster at the moment. In the end, the Rochester result wasn’t as bad for

Steerpike

Reckless gets a cross party welcome

On zero sleep and only seven hours after being re-elected, Mark Reckless was back in the Commons and sitting on the opposition benches. Rushing back to take part in a Labour PR stunt/debate on the NHS in order to shore up a Ukip weakspot, Reckless wasted no time in getting sworn back in. The Tory benches were deserted for his return, but he was given a grudging welcome back by MPs of all colours. ‘Listening to Reckless you would never think he had voted for the privatisation at the heart of the Health and Social Care Act 18 times’, mused Labour’s Bill Easterson. ‘First speech by Mark Reckless for UKIP

Sebastian Payne

Bookies point to Philip Hollobone as next Tory-Ukip defector

Forget opinion polling, bookmakers are usually the most astute predictors of election outcomes. Ladbrokes are out in force in Rochester town centre this morning, giving odds on what might happen here and in the wider Tory-Ukip drama. Following Ukip’s victory in the by-election, they are giving 4/6 odds on the Conservatives holding Rochester and Strood, 5/4 for Ukip and 33/1 for Labour. Ladbrokes also have a list of top target seats based on their constituency odds. Top is Douglas Carswell’s seat, Clacton, at 1/10, Thanet South (where Nigel Farage is standing) at 2/5, Thurrock 8/13, Boston & Skegness 4/6 and Great Yarmouth is 5/4. Rochester and Strood is not in their their top ten. On the

Fraser Nelson

Rochester points to a British general election where no one wins

Rochester is not a freak. It has given us a glimpse of what bookies now believe to be the lost likely outcome of the next election: that no one wins. I look at this in my Daily Telegraph column today. ‘All bets are off,’ said Nigel Farage after Mark Reckless prevailed in yesterday’s by-election. But that’s not quite right: bets are being made, and the balance of money points to ‘no overall control’. That is to say: a Prime Minister too unpopular to win a majority, and too toxic to be able to form a coalition. A minority government that can’t call an early election thanks to the Fixed-Term Parliaments

Isabel Hardman

Will there be more defections to Ukip?

Now that Ukip has bagged a seat that the Tories thought they could win, other would-be defectors may well be having a good long think about their chances. The fact that Mark Reckless only won Rochester with a 2,920 majority over the Conservatives may well lead wavering MPs to conclude that it isn’t safe to go over as their seats will be vulnerable once again in 2015. But then again they might conclude that all bets are off anyway, given Reckless wasn’t even supposed to win this seat. Michael Gove yesterday claimed he was 100% certain that there would be no more defections from his party to Nigel Farage’s tribe.

Sebastian Payne

Ukip’s Mark Reckless wins Rochester by-election

Rochester, Kent Mark Reckless has become Ukip’s second member of Parliament, winning the Rochester and Strood by-election with 16,687 votes – a majority of 2,920 – or 42 percent of the vote. It was a less resounding victory than some in the party were expecting, but Ukip have still managed to return an MP for a far less winnable seat than Clacton – Rochester was 271st on their target list. The Conservatives came a not-too-distant second with 35 percent, with Labour far-more-distant 17 percent and the Liberal Democrats way behind the Greens with a pathetic 349 votes. It was a pretty low turnout: 51 per cent. [datawrapper chart=”http://static.spectator.co.uk/RMmcR/index.html”] Overall, it has not been a good night for any of

Sebastian Payne

One night in Rochester: how Ukip won and what comes next

How did Ukip steal their second seat from the Tories with a candidate as uninspiring as Mark Reckless? Now that he has begun work in the Commons alongside Douglas Carswell, here’s a reflection on the last 24 hours and how the party romped home. Mature Ukip Ask any Ukipper why the party won Rochester and the first answer will likely be about how much the party has matured — both in attitudes and the sophistication of its operation. Once, their electioneering efforts were entirely scattergun. Now, the kippers are now focused. Speaking to The Spectator in the early hours of Friday morning, Deputy Ukip leader Paul Nuttall explained how much the party

James Forsyth

Ukip on course for victory in Rochester – but no Tory panic

Counting is underway in the Rochester and Strood by-election and the early indications are that Ukip has won the seat on a turnout slightly over 50%. The result is expected between 3.30am and 4am, and my colleague Seb Payne will be tweeting updates throughout the night. This was a campaign that started with the Tories saying they could win—and many saying that they had to win, but ends with the discussion all being about how big the Ukip majority will be. Here’s the rub, though: there’s no sign yet that defeat will send the Tories into a full-on panic. Even Cameron-sceptic MPs are saying that this by-election defeat is ‘priced

Thursday

20 Nov 2014

Richard Madeley

Richard Madeley’s diary: Forgetting Tom Conti’s name, and other harrowing experiences

Oh God, it’s happened again. Another evening where I’m surrounded by people I know personally or have interviewed, and I can’t remember a single name. Multiple blanks. It’s a sort of self-fulfilling nervous tic — a phobia, almost. We were at a fundraiser at our kids’ former school in north London. For some reason, lots of celebs send their children there, including Jonathan Ross. He once joked that it’s the only school in London with a permanent posse of paparazzi hanging around outside the gates. Anyway, a veteran actor with grandchildren there strolled over for a chat. After he’d wandered off, I looked at my wife in mute appeal. ‘Tom

Sebastian Payne

Podcast special: was Emily Thornberry right to resign?

Just a few hours ago, Labour’s Emily Thornberry was protesting that she had no idea why anyone would take offence at her Tweeting a picture of a Rochester house with three St George flags and a white van. Now, the tweet has ended her front bench career – she has had to resign as Shadow Attonery General Emily Thornberry. Just why was Ed Milband so sensitive? And what will be the fallout of Ukip taking Rochester? James Forsyth, Isabel Hardman and myself discuss this in a podcast special. listen to ‘Podcast special: Emily Thornberry’s resignation’ on audioBoom

James Forsyth

Emily Thornberry resigns over Rochester Tweet

Emily Thornberry has resigned from the shadow Cabinet for sending a Tweet that appeared to mock a Rochester voter who was flying several St George’s Cross from their window and had a white van parked outside. Thornberry’s resignation follows Miliband aides briefing that the leader was the angriest they’d ever seen him after being told about the tweet. All this shows just how sensitive Labour is to the charge that it is now a party run by a metropolitan elite who have little connection with the party’s traditional working class base. I suspect that if Miliband had not had the last few weeks that he has, Thornberry would have been

Isabel Hardman

Mark Reckless already arranging return to Commons as Ukip MP

This story first went out in tonight’s Evening Blend email, a free round-up and analysis of the day’s political developments. Sign up here. Mark Reckless seems pretty confident of a win in today’s Rochester and Strood by-election – sources have told Coffee House that the Commons authorities have been asked whether he can be introduced as a Ukip MP tomorrow so that he can vote on Clive Efford’s NHS bill. When asked, Reckless told Coffee House: ‘In terms of the procedures, they are convoluted so I’ve asked other people to look at it in terms of what’s possible to do. Others are looking at those but I don’t know if they’ve reached

Sebastian Payne

Nigel Farage: ‘I think we’re going to win’ Rochester and Strood

Rochester, Kent With five hours before the polls close in Rochester and Strood, Nigel Farage is confident that Ukip will romp home to victory. Outside the Sweet Expectations shop on Thursday evening, the Ukip leader emerged with a pack of bon bons and brushed aside predictions of a landslide victory as ‘slightly over-egged’. Yet Farage appeared confident that Mark Reckless will become Ukip’s second MP. ‘I feel our vote is solid,’ he said ‘I think we’re going to win but I think it might be a bit closer than people think.’ With the prospect of a significant victory over the Tories, Farage was also keen to raise the importance of this by-election. ‘This matters

Isabel Hardman

Emily Thornberry exposes Labour’s agony in Rochester

The Tories expect to lose in Rochester tonight – and blame Labour. Had it not been imploding, they argue, the Ukip vote would not be so big. And why is it imploding? Enter Islington MP Emily Thornberry, who was’t really helping any late efforts by tweeting this ‘Image from Rochester.’ Within no time, this was being taken as a Londoner’s “snobby and derogatory” sneer at White Van Man: She has (sort of) explained herself to MailOnline here. But not to the satisfaction of Simon Danczuk, Labour MP for Rochdale:- “Everyone will know exactly what she meant by that comment. I think she was being derogatory and dismissive of the people. We all know what she

Isabel Hardman

Labour tries to avoid Commons humiliation over the West Lothian question

MPs are preparing to debate devolution this afternoon, with a motion from Dominic Raab which includes a call for a review of the Barnett formula and a resolution to the West Lothian question. It’s a backbench business debate, so it is not binding on the government, but it is causing trouble for a number of reasons. The first is that Raab has managed to get an impressive sweep of the political spectrum on his list of supporters for the amendment. It includes senior Tories such as 1922 Committee chairman Graham Brady, former Attorney General Dominic Grieve (not someone who often agrees with Raab), and Andrew Mitchell. But it also has