Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Why British GDP figures are almost ALWAYS wrong.

Will it be 0.5 per cent? 0.8 per cent? 1 per cent? Whatever figure the ONS tells us GDP grew by in the third quarter of 2012, there’s one thing you can be pretty sure of: it won’t be the actual amount GDP grew by in Q3. In the past 51 years, just 12 of the ONS’s 205 first stabs at quarterly growth have survived later revisions. To be fair, the ONS recognises this, and cautiously labels tomorrow’s figure a ‘preliminary estimate’. But just how wrong is it likely to be? If tomorrow’s figure is +0.5 per cent, does that mean we can be pretty confident that growth was between,

Salmond’s darkest day could be yet to come

For years Scotland has been waiting to see when his luck would run out – well, now it has. Alex Salmond: gambler, tipster, political animal and First Minister now has another moniker: author of the country’s first scomnishambles. Yesterday marked, without doubt, the First Minister’s worst day in office. First, he lost two MSPs. Left-wingers Jean Urquhart and John Finnie announced they were leaving the SNP because of the party’s conversion to Nato. That decision, taken at SNP conference last weekend, has alienated many left-wingers in the party because they see it – rightly – as part of Salmond’s attempts to take the SNP into the moderate, centre ground of Scottish politics. But

Isabel Hardman

Did David Cameron break an embargo on GDP figures?

Last week David Cameron found himself in trouble after Prime Minister’s Questions over a slip of the tongue about energy bills: this week he’s managed to get himself into trouble over what looks like yet another slip of the tongue at PMQs. The Prime Minster appeared to suggest that tomorrow’s GDP figures, which are under strict embargo, will be good news for the government. The heat was on for Cameron, as Ed Miliband was performing reasonably well, with some good jokes (including ‘I asked him a question about the railways – I have to say the Chancellor shouts, it’s not the ticket that needs upgrading, it’s the Chancellor of the

Isabel Hardman

Nick Clegg to tell business leaders: we’re your friends

Nick Clegg is giving a speech this evening in which he will try to re-sell the Liberal Democrats as friends of business. Admitting that he hasn’t ‘said enough’ about the party’s pro-business policies, he will tell the guests at Mansion House: ‘Many in the corporate world do not – automatically – see the Liberal Democrats as natural allies. Perhaps that’s because, most recently, we’ve rightly earned ourselves a reputation as loud critics of corporate irresponsibility… Not least in financial service following the crash in 2008. Yet, historically, the Liberal Democrats are a party of industrialists and small business… And, since coming into government, we’ve been taking decisions, day in, day

James Forsyth

David Cameron must rule out votes for prisoners at PMQs

The issue of prisoner votes has turned into a question of trust between David Cameron and his backbenchers. Most Tory MPs well remember that the Prime Minister’s initial intention was to comply with the Strasbourg court’s ruling; he only changed his mind after seeing how strong feelings were on the issue on the Tory benches and in the country. For this reason, Cameron needs to scotch all this talk of a draft bill on votes for at least some prisoners at PMQs today. If he doesn’t, he’ll have just as large a rebellion on his hands as he did last time. The issue will also drive a further wedge between

James Forsyth

Margaret Thatcher and the Tory party’s change on Europe

Charles Moore’s biography of Margaret Thatcher promises to be the most important British political book in decades. Tonight, we got a preview of it when Charles delivered the Centre for Policy Studies’ second Margaret Thatcher lecture. The subject was Thatcher and Europe. I won’t say too much about it because we’re running a version of it in the coming issue of The Spectator. But one thing that Charles demonstrated was that even when Thatcher was campaigning for British membership of the European Community, as then was, she was never in favour of the European project. One of the other thing that Charles’s lecture brought out was the shift in the

Isabel Hardman

Alex Salmond branded ‘liar’ over legal advice row as two MSPs resign

It  has been a disastrous day for the Scottish National Party. Its majority at Holyrood has been cut to just one this morning after two MSPs – Jean Urquhart and John Finnie – quit the party in protest at its decision at its conference in Perth this weekend to end its opposition to Nato. Then Nicola Sturgeon gave a statement to the Scottish Parliament which led to her boss being branded a ‘liar’ by Labour as she admitted that the Scottish government has not yet sought legal advice on whether an independent Scotland would continue to be a member of the European Union. She said: ‘The Scottish government has previously

Despite everything last week, David Cameron is still on the up

Finally, some good news for the government – the public seems unconcerned by its recent difficulties. In spite of plebgate and George Osborne’s train ticket dominating this weekend’s papers, polling out today shows the Conservatives have managed to reverse their voting share decline in the wake of their party conference. The Populus/Times poll places the Tories on 35 per cent, up five points from September while Labour are down by the same amount. This brings Labour’s lead down to where it was before this year’s budget in March 2012: The Guardian/ICM polling shows a smaller increase, with Labour on 41 per cent and 33 per cent for the Conservatives. This is

Isabel Hardman

George Entwistle’s quietly savage attack on Newsnight editor Peter Rippon

George Entwistle seemed rather mild-mannered at his first appearance before the Culture, Media and Sport select committee this morning. But after listening to him for two hours, MPs were starting to suggest that the BBC director general was making a quietly savage attack on one of his juniors. It will be astonishing if, after Entwistle’s evidence, Newsnight editor Peter Rippon is not called before the committee. Entwistle told the committee that he had asked Rippon to ‘step aside because of my disappointment at the inaccuracies in the blog… he hasn’t stepped aside to prepare or the Pollard review, he’s stepped aside because of it’. He also made clear that he

Isabel Hardman

Government to postpone badger cull

Conservative backbenchers will be wondering this morning whether they should bother replying to any letters from their constituents about any unpopular government policy. Environment Secretary Owen Paterson is to announce today that the planned badger cull will be postponed following concerns about its mounting cost. Defra is insisting that the delay, until next year at the earliest, is not a U-turn. This is accurate: the vehicle hasn’t turned around in the road, it has run out of fuel and ground to a juddering halt. Studies had found that there were perhaps twice as many badgers as originally estimated, and many farmers feared they would not be able to afford to

Isabel Hardman

Five questions for George Entwistle about Jimmy Savile

George Entwistle is appearing before a select committee for the first time this morning. It won’t be a gentle start for the new BBC Director General, though. He is giving evidence to the Culture, Media and Sport committee from 10.30 on the Jimmy Savile scandal, and will face a slew of awkward questions from MPs. Here are five of the most pressing: 1. Why did he hold such a brief conversation about the implications of the Newsnight investigation for the rest of the BBC’s output? Entwistle held a conversation with Helen Boaden last December in which she warned that the report would impact on the BBC’s tribute to Savile. He

Nick Cohen

The BBC regains its honour

I hope that the entire editorial staffs of the Times, Sunday Times, Sun, Mail, Mail on Sunday, Telegraph and Sunday Telegraph (oh and the Express newspapers if they are still around) along with Alastair Campbell, the Parliamentary Conservative Party and Rupert Murdoch are going to be gracious enough to praise the BBC today. How many other institutions would allow junior staff to carry out a forensic examination of an internal scandal and broadcast it to the world? How many others would allow employees to expose a manager who made a self-serving decision? If you think you could do what Panorama did last night in any other media organisation, ask yourself,

Rod Liddle

The BBC can’t fix it like this

The BBC management cannot have it both ways. They cannot simultaneously insist that the decision to drop the Newsnight investigation into Jimmy Savile was made by the editor of the programme, Peter Rippon, and Peter Rippon alone without pressure from above – and then announce that Peter Rippon’s blog which explained why he had made that decision was inaccurate and misleading. This is the first point upon which the DG, George Entwistle, should be questioned when he comes before the Commons Culture, Media and Sport committee. The second is his puzzling lack of interest when told Newsnight would be investigating Savile – at a time when his Christmas schedules were chock

The government kicks the Sharia debate into the long grass

Because our Parliament discusses little of significance anymore, most of the public tend to ignore it. The perception that the weekly silliness of Prime Minister’s Questions constitutes Parliamentary business is enough to put any normal person off.  And apart from that weekly bun-fight, even the media barely bothers to report on the work of either House any longer. Occasionally something still happens in the Commons or the Lords that is worthy of serious attention but because of its form elsewhere, such occasions fail to get the attention they deserve. Such is the Bill proposed by Baroness Cox, which had its second reading in the Lords on Friday. Beneath its title

James Forsyth

Cameron irked on Europe as backbenchers rattle the referendum cage

Throughout his statement on the European Council, David Cameron seemed slightly irritated. One sensed that the headlines of the last few days have rather got under his skin. Cameron began by declaring that the Council meeting had made ‘limited progress’, which is hardly much to report to the House. He also was unable to resist another pop at Chris Bryant; complaining that he still hadn’t apologised to him when the Labour MPs asked a question. It was striking what a pro-European tone Ed Miliband took in his response to Cameron. It was all about how Cameron was losing control of his party over Europe and needed more friends there. When

Steerpike

Rumours of Lynton Crosby’s return snowball

Plenty of newspapers have been following the scent of my magazine report that Lynton Crosby is about to return to the Tory fold. Here’s something to help them along. One Tory government source tells me that the Tory leadership ‘are trying to twist his arm’ because ‘there’s a recognition that he would bring some focus, discipline and clarity to the campaign that was missing last time.’ My Whitehall whisperer says that negotiations have been going on for some time. Apparently, the biggest impediment is not George Osborne, who would have to surrender control of election strategy, but Crosby’s exorbitant fees. The Tories ‘would need to pay him out of the CCHQ

Isabel Hardman

Dave vs Angela, round 2

David Cameron appears to be looking for a suite of examples for his party that he’s still fighting their corner. He’s about to deliver his speech on offenders, and his spokesman has just suggested he’s up for a real scrap on the European Union budget, too. The FT’s splash this morning is that Angela Merkel is threatening to cancel next month’s European budget summit if Britain refuses to approve any other deal than a total freeze on spending. The paper reports that Merkel believes there is no point in holding the summit if Cameron is going to veto any deal on the table. The problem for the German Chancellor is