Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
As of today, we now have four years’ worth of GDP figures since the UK first went into recession — and they don’t look pretty. By this point in the 1930s, we’d already fully recovered from the Great Depression. This time, we’re still more than 4 per cent below where we were at the start of 2008: And the international comparison isn’t very flattering either:
This morning brought the economic news that the coalition has been dreading: the country has double dipped. Now, this is based on preliminary figures which may well be revised up. But, as Pete says, the political impact of this story will be huge. The government’s handling of the economy has now been caught up in this whole argument about competence. It provides quite a back-drop to Rupert Murdoch’s testimony today. PMQs today has now taken on a special significance. Ed Miliband has two massive targets to aim at, the Jeremy Hunt revelations from yesterday and these GDP figures. For Cameron it will be his most testing appearance at the despatch
Or at least technically-speaking it did. The figures released this morning suggest that the economy shrank by 0.2 per cent in the first quarter of this year, which is the second quarter of shrinkage in a row after last winter’s 0.3 per cent fall. The numbers are tiny, but the politics is huge. It’s a double dip — and you can expect Ed Miliband to mention that fact again and again in PMQs later, with dread accompaniment from Ed Balls and his hand gestures. There are some caveats, of course. This is only a preliminary estimate, so the Office for National Statistics could revise it upwards at some point. It’s
Since I wrote my earlier blog, I have been contacted by Tories who are supportive of Jeremy Hunt. One minister argued to me with eloquence and passion that Hunt was not someone who would do anything improper and that would become clear when he faced Leveson. Another Tory told me that ‘Hunt is an absolute star,’ and that it is crucial that he survives as he is one of Cameron’s more effective ministers. Most backbench Tory MPs I have spoken to this evening are supportive of Hunt. But, intriguingly, among Liberal Democrats there is not the same sentiment. Indeed, one of the most significant lines of the day might well
Further to that last post, Leveson released more than 100 pages of News Corp correspondence this afternoon. Alex Salmond features in four emails sent by Fred Michel, the Murdochs’ chief lobbyist and PR guy: 1. 1/11/10 – Libdem MP, former Sky employee, with major Sky customer centres in his constituency and around will contact Vince Cable to ask himm to bear in mind the economic/investment point of view rather than getting influenced by political games, especially in times of austerity and very difficult economic environment for those areas. He will also emphasise the opportunity for Cable to show the maturity of the Libdems as coalition partners, working for the long-term,
One thing to be kept in mind as we consider the extent of the government’s links to News International is that it helps explain why neither the Telegraph nor Mail groups are wholly in favour of David Cameron and his ministry. It is, I think, fairly clear that the Conservative leadership was happy to accede to Rupert Murdoch’s attempts to purchase the shares in BSkyB that he did not already own. Following today’s revelations at the Leveson Inquiry, Jeremy Hunt’s jacket now rests upon a super-shoogly peg. Several bookmakers have ceased taking bets on the Culture Secretary being the next minister to leave the cabinet. Even allowing for politicians’ willingness
For the first time since August last year, Ed Miliband’s net approval rating with Ipsos MORI is higher than David Cameron’s. That marks quite a turnaround in the last few weeks: in January, Miliband’s rating was 25 points lower than the PM’s. Cameron’s ratings are now at their worst point ever.
If anyone doubted just how dramatic the Murdochs’ evidence to Leveson was going to be, then the five hours of testimony today have settled that argument. In the process, they have also turned Jeremy Hunt into the political equivalent of damaged goods. It is now hard to see how he can be Secretary of State when the Olympics open let alone Tory leader one day. The emails that have just been released show just how deep a hole Hunt is in. He and his special adviser seem to have been rather reckless in their interactions with Murdoch and his representatives, they have certainly opened themselves up to criticism. It should
The Eurocrisis may be nagging at our political class, but it’s got nothing on the Leveson inquiry. Today has been James Murdoch’s turn in the hotseat, and it has produced some of the most explosive testimony so far. There was the claim that, contrary to previous Tory insinuations, Murdoch Jr did chat about the BSkyB bid with David Cameron at that notorious Christmas Dinner in 2010. But topping that is the revelation that News Corp had all sorts of contact with Jeremy Hunt about the bid, mainly via their head of public affairs Fred Michel, as it was simmering along in 2010 and 2011. It doesn’t look good for Hunt.
Of all the cockamamie ploys favoured by this government, House of Lords reform is close to being both the most pointless and the most aggravating. Iain Martin hints at this in his recent Telegraph post but he is, in the end, too kind to the Deputy Prime Minister. This is the sort of wheeze favoured by undergraduates blessed with second-class second-class minds. It is close to pointless because even if anyone outside the tiny world of “progressive” think tanks thought this a vital issue there is no evidence that it is in the slightest bit necessary. Which explains why it is aggravating. Th House of Lords, as presently constituted (that
Another set of bad notices for Cameron & Co. this morning, chief among them the Public Administration Select Committee’s report into government strategy. It basically says that there is none: short-term fripperies are indulged at the expense of long-term objectives. Or as the report puts it in one of its most trenchant passages, ‘We have little confidence that policies are informed by a clear, coherent strategic approach, informed by an assessment of the public’s aspirations and their perceptions of the national interest.’ This is a diagnosis that many will agree with, partially if not in full. Most governments could do with more long-term thinking, let alone one that is split
It looks as though the London Mayoral election isn’t the foregone conclusion some thought it was. A new YouGov poll for the Evening Standard has the gap between Boris and Ken down to just two points — well within the margin of error. That contrasts with the eight-point lead that Boris had opened up last month: One interesting finding is that, despite all the controversy over his tax affairs, Labour supporters are not turning their backs on Ken. In fact, they seem to be rallying around him. Of those Labour general election voters who express a preference between Ken and Boris, Ken now has the support of 89 per cent.
Nadine Dorries has form when it comes to attacking her party’s leadership, but this sets a new high water mark (from about 1:48 in): “playlist=http://playlists.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17813706A/playlist.sxml&config=http://www.bbc.co.uk/player/emp/2_0_39/config/default.xml&embedReferer=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/politics/&domId=emp-17813706-76418&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&mediatorHref=http://open.live.bbc.co.uk/mediaselector/5/select/version/2.0/mediaset/journalism-pc/vpid/&fmtjDocURI=/news/uk-politics-17813706&config_settings_showUpdatedInFooter=true&uxHighlightColour=0xff0000&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_pageType=eav1&config_settings_showShareButton=true&holdingImage=http://news.bbcimg.co.uk/media/images/59806000/jpg/_59806020_jex_1385918_de28-1.jpg&embedPageUrl=http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-17813706&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_edition=Domestic&config_settings_autoPlay=true&enable3G=true&config_plugin_fmtjLiveStats_pageType=eav6&config_settings_autoPlay=false&config_settings_showFooter=true&config_settings_showPopoutButton=false&config_settings_showPopoutCta=false&config_settings_addReferrerToPlaylistRequest=true”> Via the Daily Politics.
23rd April, 2012 — mark it down in your calendars, CoffeeHousers. For, after weeks of froth and fury about tax, today’s the day when the government focused on spending cuts again. In a speech to the Institute for Fiscal Studies, Danny Alexander has announced what are, in theory, a couple of new restraints on spending. First, government departments will have to share information about their spending with the Treasury on a monthly basis, and let Osborne & Co. pore over it. And, second, they will also have to find extra capacity in their existing budgets for unforeseen expenditure, rather than just relying on the Treasury’s central reserve. Alexander described these
…here are some posts made on Spectator.co.uk over the weekend: Fraser Nelson reports on Ash Green School’s success story and puts forward the case for ignoring Strasbourg. James Forsyth looks at how the House of Lords would be elected, examines Cameron’s mid-term blues and thinks Clegg’s is using ‘absurdly patronising’ language on a Lords referendum. Sebastian Payne thinks Siobhan Benita might be Boris’ secret weapon. David Rodigan goes through the essential Bob Marley. And Liz Truss MP is this week’s Bookbencher on the Spectator Book blog.
Further to James’s post on the Cameron interview, here’s what jumped out at me: 1. ‘Governments have difficult months. This government came together to dig this country out of the huge economic mess that it’s in…’ This is the official No.10 explanation about the last few months; that it’s the problems of the austerity agenda. As James Forsyth says in his political column in the current magazine, there are strongly-held alternative explanations. 2. ‘We’re not just a bunch of accountants dealing with the deficit…’ Cameron kicks off with this, an interesting phrase as it has been used by those criticising his Chancellor’s economic message. Osborne’s critics says he no agenda
David Cameron is out doing the media rounds today. He wants to, in his words, get back to the ‘big picture’, the argument over deficit reduction. Indeed, Danny Alexander’s speech today saying that departments have to indentify additional saving seems to have been timed to tee up this argument. Cameron’s Today Programme interview, though, was dominated by Abu Qatada, tax avoidance, Lords reforms and whether or not — in John Humphrys’ words — the PM is ‘a bit lazy.’ On Qatada, Cameron was insistent that the Home Office had ‘checked repeatedly’ with the European Court of Human Rights on the deadline. I expect that the Home Office will have to
In his interview with Andrew Neil on the Sunday Politics, Nick Clegg argued against a referendum on Lords reform on the grounds that the three main parties all agree on it and so, in an absurdly patronising phrase, there’s no need ‘to subcontract to the British people’ the decision. He also added that it would cost several hundred million pounds. Now having been on the wrong side of the AV referendum result, Clegg knows how potent the waste of money charge can be — remember those anti-AV posters. But I suspect that this is going to be a difficult line for him to hold for as supporters of a referendum
Parliament is back from the Easter recess, and so is the Spectator’s Bookbenchers. First back into the hotseat is Elizabeth Truss, the Tory MP for South West Norfolk. She is inundated with children’s books, and wants to get to grips with some serious science. 1) Which book’s on your bedside table at the moment? Charles Dickens, A Tale of Two Cities and Britannia: One Hundred Documents That Shaped a Nation by Graham Stewart. 2) Which book would you read to your children? Edward Lear Nonsense, Alice in Wonderland — and all the Julia Donaldson (Gruffalo) books. Kings and Queens of England by Eleanor and Herbert Farjeon is my daughter’s favourite, particularly
If Theresa May loses her job over this kerfuffle over Abu Qatada’s appeals deadline, would anyone in the Cabinet be safe? If you were to rank the blunders this government has made, it wouldn’t even make the top 20. The Home Office is notoriously dysfunctional, and the real surprise is that May has made it thus far with only two or three major skirmishes. It’s fun for her enemies to claim she made a basic mistake, but it’s not clear-cut. In the weird world of European law, the number of days in a three month period can vary depending on things like the estimated postal time between London and Luxembourg.