PMQs Live blog | 30 November 2011
PMQs 30 November
Politics
Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
Wednesday
Picketing Parliament
By way of Spectating, I thought I’d take a quick stroll along Westminster’s picket lines. And, to be honest, there isn’t a huge amount to see, as yet. The groups of around five or six industrial actioneers outside some departments trump the small pile of placards outside the Treasury. There are about thirty to forty people picketing Parliament itself. The photo I shot hastily on my iPhone, above, should give you the sense of it. The striking workers I spoke with, however, were bullish about people turning up later in the day, especially with the march that’s happening this afternoon — as well as for the strike’s general progress in
Tuesday
The Autumn Statement Makes a Tory-Lib Dem Electoral Pact More Likely
Amidst the economic doom and gloom (though all the forecasts are always wrong so who knows how things will look by 2015?), the politics of the coalition government remain interesting. So Danny Alexander’s performance on Newnight tonight was very interesting. The Chief Secretary of the Treasury told Jeremy Paxman that the Liberal Democrats were committed to the new spending and borrowing plans announced by George Osborne yesterday. Furthermore, the spending cuts announced for the first two years of the next parliament (though said plans can only be aspirational since they cannot, surely, bind the next parliament?) would be part of the next Liberal Democrat manifesto. I doubt Tim Farron or
Meanwhile, in Europe…
There probably hasn’t been a meeting of European finance ministers as important as the one tonight. The euro is still at risk; with new governments in Spain, Italy, and Greece incapable of calming the markets, and Angela Merkel unwilling to let the ECB act. In a speech in Berlin, Polish foreign minister Radek Sikorski put it clearly: ‘I fear German power less than I am beginning to fear German inactivity.’ It is a fear shared in London and Paris as well. The 17 finance ministers will discuss the range of options on the table: from setting up an EU Treasury to the possibility of eurobonds or establishing a supra-national process
Osborne plays a tough hand well
Today was always going to be a difficult day for the Chancellor. The figures from the OBR were always going to dominate the headlines and the restrictions of coalition meant that there couldn’t be as much as the Tories would have liked on the supply side. It was striking that the loudest Tory cheer of Osborne’s statement came when he reiterated his opposition to an EU-imposed financial transactions tax. But the silver lining for Osborne and co is that Labour still lack economic credibility. It is hard for Labour to savage Osborne for borrowing more than he said he would — which he is to the tune of £158 billion
Fuelling the recovery
Today, the government has listened. In his Autumn Statement, George Osborne scrapped the fuel tax bombshell that was scheduled for January 2012. As regular Coffee House readers will know, more than 100 MPs supported my cross-party campaign for cheaper petrol. At its height, it saw an e-petition attract more than 124,000 names — triggering a full MPs’ debate in Parliament. It has been a very long campaign, working with many organisations, from FairFuelUK and the RAC, to the independent forecourt industry, The Spectator and the Sun, to thousands of members of the public who wrote to me in support. Over several months, I have asked questions in Parliament, spoken
Ron Beats Boris and George
The question of who will succeed David Cameron is, in every essential, a pointless parlour game. Obviously, then, it’s great sport for the press and just the kind of thing to entertain hacks and everyone else at Westminster. The “rivalry” between George Osbore and Boris Johnson is the sort of thing that, if it did not exist, would have to be invented by journalists. (Oh: hang on…) It is the successor to Tony vs Gordon and the Tory counter to the Warring Milibands and is a show that won’t close, we’re told, until 2018 or 2019. So you’ve only to endure another seven or so years of George vs Boris
Osborne has made the right choice — but it’s not without its costs
Today, George Osborne had a choice. Growth prospects have evaporated, and tax revenues along with it. Should he reopen the 2010 Spending Review and cut the spending totals? Or stick with those totals, and finance this with extra debt? He chose the latter. And I think, on balance, he was right to do so. Credibility is the most valuable currency in this eurozone crisis, and Osborne said it was a fixed five-year plan. He chose more debt over less certainty, and it looks today like the markets believe he chose correctly. But all this comes at a cost. The government will now run deficits higher than those which Labour proposed.
Why are the Tories hell-bent on fouling up our countryside?
Your views, please, on the government’s new-found interest in Boris Johnson’s stupid idea of a huge new airport built on the Isle of Grain, in Kent. Johnson, with his recently acquired catamite, Sir Norman Foster, has been agitating for a new airport to be built for half a decade or more. The favoured scheme right now is to pave over one of Britain’s most important wintering grounds for wildfowl, the Isle of Grain, and reclaim more land from the Thames Estuary. There is precious little land left in the south-east of England for wildlife; it is one of the most densely populated areas in the world. The north Kent marshes,
Growth has upset Osborne’s plans — and it’s likely to get worse
The real story, as everyone expected, wasn’t in the Pre-Budget Report ‘Green Book’ — but in the supplementary document produced by the Office for Budgetary Responsibility. Growth forecasts have taken a dive. And while that is both unsurprising and not all that revealing, it carries grim implications for so much else. I mean, just look at the graphs we produced in our last post: forecasts for debt, unemployment and borrowing are all up. It is not a pretty picture. But despite the dreariness of it all, I suspect that the numbers are far too optimistic. The clue comes at the start of the OBR report: ‘The central economic and fiscal
In the Bleak Midwinter; Some Republican Entertainment
British politics is pretty depressing at the moment so thank god for the entertainment provided by the Republican candidates squabbling to become their party’s Presidential nominee. Dark times demand dark comedy leavened by appropriate measures of farce. Hurrah for Newt Gingrich, then. We are advised that he must be taken seriously now that he’s been endorsed by the Manchester Union-Leader even though that paper has in the past supported the likes of Steve Forbes, Pat Buchanan, Pete DuPont (1988) and Richard Ashbrook (1972). What’s more, the Union-Leader’s publisher thinks it sensible to say Newt “resembles” Winston Churchill. Yes, all this is supposed to be an important symbol and the kind
The Autumn Statement: What you need to know
We’ve been posting some of these charts on Twitter, but here they are, collected, for CoffeeHousers. You can expect more as we mine deeper into the OBR’s supplementary document. Do shout out, also, if you spot anything yourself. 1. Weaker growth — except for a very optimistic figure for 2015 2. Higher debt — both in real terms and as percentage of GDP 3. Osborne borrowing more than he’d hoped 4. More persistent — and deeper — ILO unemployment 5. The squeeze continues until 2013
On the road to break-up?
Before we plunge into the Autumn Statement, we really ought to mention the poison cloud hanging over Brussels today. European finance ministers, including George Osborne, are meeting there later — and it’s certainly not going to be good for their collective health. Klaus Regling, the head of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), is expected to tell them that there’s basically no chance of them boosting the bailout fund to €1 trillion in the near future, as was promised at the end of last month. Back then, David Cameron urged eurozone leaders to bring a ‘big bazooka’ to the fight. They have barely managed a cap gun. This is far
Your Autumn Statement check-list
I very much doubt today’s Pre-Budget Report will be memorable; a shame, given the circumstances. The supplementary Office for Budget Responsibility document will be more interesting — and relevant to people’s lives — than the Budget itself. Sure, everyone focuses their attention on the Red Book (or Green Book, as it is for the PBR) and GDP projections. But even GDP isn’t really useful. You can manipulate GDP by printing money, or by borrowing money. Gets you nowhere. GDP is only useful insofar as it’s a proxy for national prosperity. And thanks to the OBR we’ll have other, more useful metrics today. Here’s my guide to them: 1. Net
Monday
Osborne has a few cards up his sleeve, but no aces
In some ways, George Osborne will always be haunted by his 2007 Tory conference speech. That speech and the reaction to his commitment to raise all estates worth less than £1 million out of inheritance tax contributed to Gordon Brown not calling an early election. It has a claim to be one of the most important speeches in modern British politics — it is certainly the one that saved the Cameron project. But it has also created an expectation that Osborne has a set of aces up his sleeve every time he stands up to give a big speech. Tomorrow’s speech won’t see the Chancellor pull out any unexpected trumps.
Egypt may have voted, but don’t celebrate just yet
Many thought the day would never come. Even as recently as yesterday, some doubted it would happen. But today Egyptians went to the polls in the country’s first parliamentary elections since Hosni Mubarak’s fall, hoping to take a first step toward democracy. Under a complex electoral system, voters picked both party lists and individual candidates. The final results are due by 13 January 2012. As it stands, the Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s largest and best organised group, along with Salafists, are expected to do well in the vote — after all, Islamists did prosper in the elections in Morocco and Tunisia. But it is not assured. Voters may feel that the
Cameron may have more leverage in Europe than he thinks
There’s just over a week to go until the crunch EU summit on 8-9 December, so David Cameron has to decide how best to play his cards — and quick. The problem, as Daniel Korski has pointed out, is that Britain faces the risk of ‘structural isolation’ in Europe in the short-term. To counter this, Cameron effectively has two options. First, work with allies on both sides of the euro divide to seek political assurances — formal or informal — against the formation of a two-tier Europe with a more integrated eurozone in the driving seat. Or, second, press ahead with UK-specific carve-outs from the EU structure. The former would
The reasons for Angela Merkel’s popularity
The British government is becoming ever more gloomy about the prospects for the euro, believing that Angela Merkel will not do what she has to if the single currency is to survive: namely, let the ECB intervene massively in the markets. Whether it’s because of Germany’s inflation-scarred history, or the hope that market pressure will force reforms in many European states, the Chancellor is holding back. And, it seems, she is getting more and more popular by sticking to her policy. Mrs Merkel’s popularity is, indeed, related to her handling of the Eurocrisis. In Germany she is seen as having shown the kind of leadership people want, and the
Just in case you missed them… | 28 November 2011
…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson says that Osborne and Balls are like wrestlers, putting on a show but doing no real fighting. And on the Arts Blog, he picks his ten favourite cover versions. James Forsyth reports that the Tories are getting fed up with the Lib Dems’ efforts to show they’re the governing party that cares. Peter Hoskin warns that downgraded growth forecasts will scupper Osborne’s plans, and looks at the battles flaring up ahead of Tuesday’s autumn statement. Daniel Korski suggests how the UK could see off proposals for a Tobin tax in the EU. And on the Book Blog,
Sunday
Tobin tactics
The biggest bone of contention between the UK and its EU allies these days is the ‘Tobin tax’, the idea of levying a tax on financial transactions. To the UK this is folly. Unless it is levied globally, a tax will force business to move elsewhere. And there is a greater chance of Silvio Berlusconi being elected ECB chief than the Tobin tax being levied globally. Based on the experiences of Sweden in the 1990s, the tax will achieve none of what its proponents believe it will — and at a considerable cost to Britain’s and Europe’s economy, as companies look to list elsewhere to avoid it. As Ryan
