Politics Archives

Wednesday

25 Nov 2009

Missing the point | 25 November 2009

The Today programme really let Paul Myners off the hook this morning. The interviewer obsessed with why the loans had remained secret for so long. It’s a fair question, and it seems bizarre that we only learn of them ten months after the borrowing was repaid in full. However, there are more important questions. As I wrote yesterday, these disclosure’s most potentially volatile revelation is that Gordon Brown was propping up HBOS whilst urging Lloyds to purchase the ailing giant. Was this issue examined in any depth? No, though it must be determined whether the Lloyds’ board understood HBOS’s predicament in its horrific entirety. The equally crucial question of how

David Blackburn

PMQs Live Blog | 25 November 2009

Stay tuned for live coverage from 1200. 12:03: Here we go. Brown gets things underway with the weekly Butcher’s Bill and remembrance of those killed or otherwise affected by the floods in Cumbria. 12:06: And here comes Cameron – he follows Brown’s thanksgiving lead. Cameron asks how quickly temporary bridges across the Derwent in Cumbria can be constructed. Brown doesn’t know as yet as he and the Secretary of State await an engineers report. Brown adds that all costs will be met by the Department of Environment. Cameron wants eveything that can be done for those affected be done. Brown rambles and says he will do everything he can and

David Blackburn

With friends like these | 25 November 2009

Bob Ainsworth has publicly criticised President Obama’s slothful deliberation on an Afghan troop surge. The Defence Secretary said: ‘We have suffered a lot of losses. We have had a period of hiatus while McChrystal’s plan and his requested uplift has been looked at in the detail to which it has been looked at over a period of some months, and we have had the Afghan elections, which have been far from perfect let us say. All of those things have mitigated against our ability to show progress… put that on the other side of the scales when we are suffering the kind of losses that we are.’ I don’t agree

Tuesday

24 Nov 2009

David Blackburn

There are more pressing financial concerns than this

The two top dogs at the Treasury Select Committee, John McFall and Michael Fallon, give remarkably different reactions to the news that ministers withheld details of emergency loans to RBS and Lloyds for over a year. McFall argues that secrecy was necessary to avoid a run on the banks; Fallon expresses outrage that Lloyds’ shareholders were not privy to all information when considering the disastrous purchase of HBOS, urged on them by the Prime Minister. Both have their points. Blind panic is the defining recollection of those autumnal days. If the situation had been exacerbated by full disclosure of the mess RBS and Lloyds were in then God alone

Alex Massie

Obama as the Liberal Reagan

So Barack Obama’s approval rating in Iowa has slipped below 50%. Indeed, he receives negative ratings from Iowans in every area except foreign policy. So much for all that Hope and Change, eh? Well, not quite. As a savvy Democratic lobbyist emails: More and more, the overlays between Obama and Reagan seem to match. Succeeding disastrous presidencies, charm/star power, awful off year elections, bad first mid-term, laggard economy on the cusp of growth, and a badly fractured opposition trying to figure out purity vs. change within their own ranks. Reagan was, of course, unabashedly conservative and more and more, it seems that pre-presidency predictions of Obama as a closet moderate

Peter Hoskin

Yet another poll for the mix

After the Ipsos MORI hullabaloo, it’s tempting to treat the YouGov/Telegraph poll on Westminster voting intentions in Scotland with extreme caution. But, for the record, here are the headline figures, and a hefty rise for Labour: Labour — 39 percent (up 9 points from August) SNP — 24 percent (down 2) Conservatives — 18 percent (down 2) Lib Dems — 12 percent (down 6) As this fits in with another recent poll, it’s safe to say that Labour have solidified their support in Scotland during and after the Glasgow North by-election. And there’s more discouraging news for the SNP: at 29 percent, support for Scottish independence is hardly overwhelming –

Peter Hoskin

Mandelson downplays Van Rompuy and Ashton – and bigs up the EU’s financial influence

To my eyes, there’s more than a little dose of mischief in Peter Mandelson’s article for the FT today. Discussing the recent EU jobs grab, he seems to suggest that the new economic and financial commissioners may have a more important role to play than either Herman Van Rompuy or Lady Ashton, the EU’s president and high representative, respectively: “Some commentators felt that the EU’s choices for its new president and high representative for foreign affairs lacked this kind of continental ambition. Herman Van Rompuy and Lady Ashton will no doubt aim to prove them wrong. But Europe’s dilemma is not just one of influence projection. Europe’s influence will inevitably

Monday

23 Nov 2009

James Forsyth

A poll taken at the same time as the Ipsos-Mori poll had the Tories 14 points ahead

The Observer’s Ipsos-Mori poll has dominated political discussion since its publication on Sunday. But two things that I have heard tonight have increased my scepticism that it marks a dramatic shift in public opinion. First, I hear that another of the big pollsters had a survey in the field at the same time and it showed a fourteen point Tory lead. Second, a new poll for Political Betting has Labour down on 22, only a point ahead of the Lib Dems. With polls it is the ones that are surprising that make waves; I’m sure we’ll all run down a few more rabbit holes before election day. The odd surprsingly

David Blackburn

Satire is dead

I laughed more at the Antiques Roadshow than I did at The Thick of It. In fact, finding the louche Eric Knowles delivers more cutting gags per minute than Malcolm Tucker has become a feature of my weekends. And it’s a sad one because The Thick of It was the sharpest and most savage programme on television – a welcome focus for one’s anger at the Labour government. Truth is, Armando Iannucci’s show has dated. The outwardly crisp style of government it satirised has descended into a very public ‘omnishambles’. The reality is funnier than the fiction. The Prime Minister’s belief that he’d saved the world; a 24 hour pursuit

Peter Hoskin

Dodgy expenses referred to the CPS

And so the expenses scandal rumbles on. This morning’s Telegraph lead with home-flipping allegations against Andrew Dismore, a member of the Commons Committee on Standards and Privileges. And now it’s emerged that the Met have referred the cases of four parliamentarians to the Crown Prosecution Service. All of which makes Brown’s decision not to mention expenses in the Queen’s Speech seem even more unwise.

Daniel Korski

Is the world cooling or not – and what is to blame?

The Financial Times supplement this weekend contained profiles of the world’s leading climate experts, including – the magazine promised – the world’s leading sceptic. I quickly leafed through the pages to see who had been picked as the whipping boy, expecting to see a Danish name. No, not that of Bjørn Lomborg, who became (in)famous for his book The Sceptical Environmentalist, but that of Professor Henrik Svensmark. In the end, it was Richard Lindzen. But it is Svensmark’s research that may prove the greatest challenge to the prevailing consensus on climate dynamics. The Danish scientist, author of The Chilling Stars, become noted because of his research into cosmic rays and

Alex Massie

Gordon Brown is a Rescue Donkey

Brother Liddle asks “Why is it unravelling for Dave?” and, while this may be a mild exaggeration, it’s true that, in as much as he can ever look jaunty, there’s a spring in Gordon’s step right now. Perhaps, Labourites dare to dream, the worst is over? Maybe. One poll showing the Tory lead cut to just six points is a pretty shoogly nail upon which to hang your hopes. Nevertheless, the story of the day is this alleged mini-revival. In the end it may be no more than a dead cat bounce, but, just for a moment, let’s assume it’s not. So, how to explain it? Firstly, Labour’s core vote

Peter Hoskin

Hold your horses | 23 November 2009

The blogosphere is alight with all kinds of chatter about yesterday’s Ipsos MORI poll for the Observer, which showed Labour closing the gap between them and the Tories to 6 points: from James Macintyre’s claim that the Labour fightback has begun to Nick Robinson’s call for calm. Myself, I’m on Team Robinson. Sure, the poll is an eye-opener for CCHQ – but, by itself, it’s hardly evidence of a tidal shift in voting intentions. Indeed, going off two very useful posts by Anthony Wells and Stephan Shakespeare, there’s a considerable chance that this is a rogue. Polls will always be imperfect, but they’ve been particularly volatile recently. Since party

Peter Hoskin

Bradshaw goes to war against the Sun

Peter Mandelson has already claimed that the Tories and the Sun have “effectively formed a contract”, but today Ben Bradshaw takes the insinuations even further. Here’s the relevant passage from his interview with the Guardian, with my emphasis in bold: “Echoing the views of the business secretary, Lord Mandelson, Bradshaw says of News International and the Tories: ‘There is no doubt there’s a deal … The Tories have basically subcontracted their media and broadcasting policy to News International. It’s brazen.’ He fires off a list of Tory policies – including a commitment to TV news free from impartiality rules and Cameron’s promise to rein in the media regulator, Ofcom –

Peter Hoskin

Brown goes for growth – fails

So the dividing line persists. Today, both Gordon Brown and David Cameron will talk about “going for growth” at the CBI’s annual conference. But it all, more or less, comes down to the same, dreary “investment vs cuts” line that we’ve heard countless times before. According to the Times, Brown is going to say that growth is the best way of tackling the deficit, rather than those nasty Tory cuts. And, what’s more, “he hopes investment from China will drive the recovery”. Of course, growth will have a role to play in reducing the deficit. A vibrant economy will have a better chance of tackling record deficits and debt levels

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 23 November 2009

…here are some of the posts made on Spectator.co.uk over the weekend: James Forsyth welcomes David Cameron’s emphasis on growth, and highlights an important member of the class of 2010. Peter Hoskin looks behind the closed doors of Brussels, and observes a fine line between love and hatred for Peter Mandelson. David Blackburn identifies where to start cutting, and wonders what should be included in a British Bill of Rights. Daniel Korski says it’s good that EU job picks are undemocratic. Martin Bright hopes he’s wrong about Labour’s situation. Susan Hill looks at the divide between real life and virtual life. Rod Liddle wonders why it’s unravelling for Dave. Alex

Alex Massie

People are Stupid, but the Electorate is Not

Martin Bright argues that “the British people deserve a hung parliament”. I’m not sure that’s quite correct. It might be more accurate to say that David Cameron’s Conservatives have not quite convinced the electorate that they merit a large majority. (Nor, for that matter, have Labour persuaded anyone other than true believers that they merit a fourth term.) Of course, this too is a little unfair since, given the current constituency boundaries, the Tories need an overwhelming victory to gain a comfortable majority. If all else were equal, a six point win would be comfortable enough. But all else is not equal and so the Tories could win convincingly in

Sunday

22 Nov 2009

Rod Liddle

Why’s it unravelling for Dave?

A new opinion poll puts the Tory lead down to just six points, the lowest for quite a while. It’s only one poll, of course, but it does tend to support what I was saying last week about this being a fairly promising time for Labour (with the polls in the week leading up to its Glasgow by-election victory registering a ten per cent lead for the Tories). This will come as a shock, I suppose, both to those of you on here who assumed Labour’s decline was irreversible – and also to the presumably penniless dumbo nerds at Political Betting who cannot see the wood for the trees. The

Martin Bright

I Hope I’m Wrong

I can’t help thinking that the Observer’s Ipsos/Mori poll this weekend was something of a blip. What exactly has the Labour government done to narrow the gap in the last week or so? I hope I’m wrong, because I think the British people deserves a hung parliament, which would be the best result of the next election. I have been saying for some time that the Conservatives do not have the strength in depth to form a credible government and that the electorate faces the most unappealing choice since 1970. Nothing I have seen recently has made me change my mind. Andrew Rawnsley has written the best of the political

David Blackburn

What should be in the British Bill of Rights?

The success or failure of Cameron’s EU policy rests in part on the promised British Bill of Rights. What is clear is that Tories are unclear what should be included in it. One question that is yet to be answered is whether aspects of the constitution should be entrenched? Writing on the Blue Blog today, Michael Howard writes: ‘Any decision about these rights requires a balancing of competing rights. The fundamental question is who should be responsible for striking that balance: elected MP’s or unelected judges? On terrorism, Parliament twice, after great debate, reached its view. Yet twice the judges have held that Parliament got it wrong. In doing so,