Politics Archives

Wednesday

24 Mar 2010

Budget Statement live blog

1400, UPDATE: The technical problems should have been resolved now. The complete live blog is now showing below. 1346, PH: Cameron sits down, and we’ll sign off. Apologies, again, for the technical problems – I filled in some of the gaps below. More from Coffee House soon. 1345, JF: Turn to page 178 of the Red Book and you see something telling. This Budget predicts growth of three to three and a half percent in 2011. But the average of independent forecasts predicts growth of 2.1 percent. Indeed, the Red Book cannot cite an independent forecast that predicts 3.5 percent growth in 2011. 1345, PH: Cameron’s on punchy form, hitting

Peter Hoskin

Spotting the Budget deceptions

There are, lest you need reminding, two levels of deception on Budget Day. First, there’s the Chancellor’s Budget statement, which is pretty obviously spun to put the best light on things. I refer you to when Brown triumphantly announced a 2p cut in the basic rate of income tax in his final Budget statement, while somehow forgetting to mention that the 10p rate has been abolished. And then there’s a Budget document itself, in which much of the most revealing content is tucked away in appendices and footnotes. Even straightforward spending figures are hard to come by in the Red Book. In which case, we’ll be doing our best to

Daniel Korski

Germany to the EU: no more integration

A Conservative Party article of faith has been the belief that other Europeans are innately more pro-EU than the British. In the past, this has undoubtedly been the case. Poll after poll has shown that Britons see the EU differently than most other Europeans. But as I have argued before, times are changing on the continent. In an article in the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (not a Europhile newspaper by any stretch), Germany’s new politics is explained. Nikolas Busse argues that the Greek crisis and failure of EU leaders to cobble together a plausible bail-out is the first major manifestation of Germany’s new role in Europe – that of a country

Peter Hoskin

All quiet on the Westminster front

If there’s one thing distinguishing this morning, then it’s just how placid everything feels. The clouds are moving sluggishly across the sky; there’s little excitement about the measures expected in the Budget; and there are no stories about rifts between the Prime Minister and the Chancellor. Indeed, Downing St insiders tell the FT that relations between Gordon Brown and Alistair Darling have been “pretty good” in the run up to the Budget, because both are “broadly agreed on the strategy of halving the deficit in four years while backing growth initiatives.” Many are taking this as a sign that Darling and Peter Mandelson have won out in their efforts to

Tuesday

23 Mar 2010

Martin Bright

Does America Point to a Future for the British Left?

I have had the pleasure of meeting two major figures of the American intellectual left over the past two weeks: Washington Post columnist EJ Dionne and Michael Kazin, co-editor of Dissent magazine. I’m sure there are as many differences as similarities in the politics of these two men, but what struck me about meeting them was how complacent and flabby we have become in Britain with our progressive politics. The relative strength of the Labour Party and the trade unions make us believe our radical traditions are safe here. But last night’s Dispatches made me realise just how fragile a principled left-wing politics has become. It is as well not

David Blackburn

A philanthropic future

There is barely a cigarette paper between Ben Bradshaw’s and Jeremy Hunt’s approaches to arts funding: it will almost certainly be cut. The Tories intend to plug the shortfall with National Lottery cash and Ben Bradshaw will fight to preserve his ‘miniscule’ budget but can give no guarantees. The arts are integral to Britain. Their importance extends beyond the cultural sphere. The Treasury receives £5 for every £1 that it invests in the arts. And it isn’t only a competitive tax regime that attracts business to these shores; Deutsche Bank relocated to London specifically because it’s an almost unrivalled cultural and artistic hub. This and the coming crunch has inspired

Peter Hoskin

The Tories want you to help unpick the Budget

One of the best things about this Brave New Web World is how it helps you to draw upon the talents, knowledge and expertise of people around the world. We certainly had that in mind when we asked CoffeeHousers to help us track down the tricks and deceptions in last year’s Budget – and now the Conservatives are thinking along similar lines. Earlier today, David Cameron said that the Tories would “crowd-source” their Budget response tomorrow. Jeremy Hunt has since provided more details here. This kind of thing ties in neatly with the Tories’ powerful transparency agenda. But the real test is whether they would continue this approach in government

Peter Hoskin

Two things to bear in mind tomorrow

If, as expected, Alistair Darling reduces his borrowing forecasts tomorrow, it’s worth keeping two particular points in mind: 1) This government has always tended to underestimate its borrowing levels. Ok, so you might argue that the government couldn’t have foreseen that public sector net borrowing would rise to £178 billion in 2009/10 when it predicted £38 billion in Budget 2008. A recession has bitten, banks have collapsed, since then – that kind of thing. But Brown & Co. certainly have a track record when it comes to underestimating borrowing totals. In Budget 1999, they thought that borrowing would be at £3 billion in 2002-03 – it turned out to be

Daniel Korski

Sarkozy, le comeback kid?

David Cameron may be talking about a new relationship with France, but let’s hope the Conservatives do better than Nicolas Sarkozy’s UMP, which suffered a heavy defeat in local and regional elections, with a Socialist-led opposition alliance taking an estimated 52 percent of the vote. This is bad. At least three of President Sarkozy’s enemies have now made a comeback: the French left, the far-right Front National and Dominique de Villepin, who appears to have been buoyed by UMP’s defeat and a new poll that showed the French preferred de Villepin to Sarkozy as UMP leader. It will be interesting to see how Sarkozy copes. Until now, he has not

James Forsyth

Cameron denounces Labour’s “lies”

David Cameron’s press conference this morning was ticking along rather uneventfully until James Landale asked Cameron a question that set the Tory leader off on one about, what he called, “Labour’s complete and utter lies.” Cameron had started off by talking about how pleased he was that we going to be a father again, letting slip that he and Samantha had been trying for another baby for a while, and with some remarks on the lobbying scandal and the Budget. There had been questions on Ashcroft and cuts but nothing had really got going. Then, James asked Cameron about a Lib Dem plan to scrap the winter fuel allowance for

Peter Hoskin

John Butterfill won’t get a peerage…

…confirms David Cameron, at his monthly press conference. If you didn’t catch last night’s Dispatches, Butterfill is the Tory MP who said, among other things, that it is “quite likely that I will go to the Lords,” and that this is “another string to my bow as far as you’re concerned”. More on him from Paul Waugh here.

Peter Hoskin

The Budget is a bigger opportunity for the Tories than for Labour

Last night’s Dispatches programme was a concentrated double blow for Labour. Not only did the limelight burn more unflatteringly on their party, but it has also undermined their careful Budget operation. For the next few days, at least, it’s possible that broken politics may trump the broken economy in the public mind. And Alistair Darling is going to have a difficult, if not impossible, task in bridging that chasm of “distrust and disbelief” with his prescriptions tomorrow. It doesn’t help the Chancellor’s cause that, by most accounts, we’re going to get an unconvincing and unspectacular Budget – some spin about lower borrowing forecasts; none of the tax rises that Peter

Monday

22 Mar 2010

Martin Bright

Cab for Hire: Dispatches and the Moral Collapse of the Political Class

I am still reeling from Antony Barnett’s Dispatches investigation into MPs and lobbying. Truly brilliant TV. Horribly watchable. Exquisitely awful. I watched half of it from behind my hands. This was Curb Your Enthusiasm meets the Office: political Dr Who for grown-ups. Why is it always the Blairites who get themselves into these messes? Is it simply because they bought the New Labour compact with the market more fully than the rest of the party? Or is that they waded so far into unfamiliar territory that they lost their moral compass? None of this completely explains what is going on here. There was something rather sad about watching Stephen Byers wade

Peter Hoskin

Byers, Hewitt and Hoon suspended from the Labour party…

…according to the Beeb just now. And if you watched tonight’s Dispatches programme, you’ll know exactly why. Nick Robinson comments that the “Labour leadership” will delight in “taking revenge” on three figures who have ruffled Brown’s feathers on multiple occasions – so it continues to look like backbiting and politicking will take priority over geniune reform. A grubby Parliament just got considerably grubbier.

James Forsyth

Another shaming day for Westminster

There was something particularly depressing about Harriet Harman’s statement to the House today on this lobbying scandal. The MPs involved have damned themselves more effectively than anybody else could and so the anger of the Commons lacked bite. Though, it was noticeable that the personal attacks on those involved tended to come from their own side not the opposition benches; proof that for many this is another episode in the long running battle for the soul of the Labour party. David Heath, the Lib Dem shadow leader of the House, made probably the best speech. He wanted to know why the House was always reacting to these problems rather than

Alex Massie

Obamacare = Romneycare = Mitt’s the Biggest Loser?

Jon Chait loves a good fight so I’m not surprised he’s in I Told You So mood today. I kinda, sorta, less confidently, told you so too even after Massachusetts when the prospect for HCR were pretty bleak and Fred Barnes was saying it was dead, dead, dead. Well, we all get things wrong and sometimes perhaps we get a little lucky. The chap with the most to lose from last night’s vote – in terms of politics and 2012 if nothing else – is our old chum Mitt Romney. No wonder Romney released this statement: America has just witnessed an unconscionable abuse of power. President Obama has betrayed his

David Blackburn

Both Labour and the Tories need to get stuck into Vince

The public remains infatuated with Vince Cable. A Politics Home poll reveals that 31 percent want Cable to be chancellor. It’s a crushing endorsement: Don’t Know is his nearest rival on 24 percent, followed by Ken Clarke on 16 percent. Cable’s reputation rests on his sagacious airs and an apparent contempt for party politics. His eminence is baffling. Fleet-footed fox-trotter he may be; economic guru he is not. Andrew Neil’s interview shattered Cable’s invincibility. The Sage of Twickenham admitted to changing his mind over the HBOS Lloyds merger and his constantly shifting position on cuts was exposed. Add to that the ill-thought out Mansions Tax and Cable begins to look

Daniel Korski

Yanukovych – Ukraine’s Nixon?

It is easy to paint Ukraine’s new leader, Viktor Yanukovych, as a pantomime monster, Russian stooge and businessman’s puppet. Last month I suggested his electoral victory over namesake Victor Yushchenko may not be as bad as people think. Now Andrew Wilson, Britain’s foremost Ukraine expert, argues the same. In a briefing paper, he notes that elections in Ukraine open up new opportunities for the EU: ‘Paradoxically, Yanukovych’s quest for good relations with Russia could also make it easier for EU member states to reach a consensus about how to deal with Ukraine. Too often in the past, the EU has been unable to develop a coherent policy on Ukraine because

The Spectator

Just in case you missed them… | 22 March 2010

…here are some of the posts made at Spectator.co.uk over the weekend. Fraser Nelson introduces a new tax, and says that the internet has made deception transparent. James Forsyth believes Obama’s healthcare bill comes at a cost, and welcomes Cameron’s theory of change. Peter Hoskin laments yet another dirty politics story, and evaluates the new cuts versus investment dividing line. David Blackburn says voters deserve better, and warns the Tories against pushing an alternative to Ashcroft. Martin Bright reviews Tony Judt’s manifesto for the left. Alex Massie finds an eye-raising passage in the Pope’s letter to the Irish church. And Melanie Phillips notes the emasculation of America.

Peter Hoskin

Memo to the Tories: stop talking about being authentic, and just do it

Paul Goodman wrote a thought-provoking article for ConHome last week, in which he suggested that “authenticity vs artificiality” will be one of the key battles of the forthcoming election. Not only do voters crave authenticity after years of spin, deception and malice on the part of politicians, wrote Goodman. But, also, this election is specifically wired to expose inauthentic behaviour. Blogs, YouTube, mobile phone cameras, poster spoofs – all will work to undermine the cold and the stage-managed methods of elections past. Which is why the Tories are getting all excited about David Cameron’s more or less spotaneous performance in Lewisham last week. It’s proof, they say, that all those