Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The latest from Glasgow East

Conventional wisdom is that Labour will win by a small majority tomorrow in Glasgow East. But isn’t a prediction of winning by a few hundred the equivalent of saying “too close to call”? A friend of mine, a former SNP by-election candidate, calls in with a few thoughts: 1. Word is that David Marshall had zero data on his voters, no canvass returns or anything. He took the seat so much for granted that he didn’t need to. I can believe this – I have heard worse from Labour rotten boroughs where the party organisation has atrophied.  2. The SNP are apparently very pleased with their campaign – ie, even if they

Peter Hoskin

More poll cheer for the Tories

Over at Political Betting, Mike Smithson’s got the latest Ipsos MORI poll results.  They have a hefty, 20-point lead for the Tories.  Here are the numbers in full: Tories on 47 percent (up 2 from last month); Labour on 27 percent (down 2); and the Lib Dems 15 percent (down 1).

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The West needs to address the Pakistan problem

When I was in Afghanistan two months ago, I was told – with some pride – that no one had been killed by gunfire so far this year. It seems, alas, that the gun battles were delayed rather than cancelled. Today, the MoD has announced that a REME soldier, attached to the Paras, was killed – by a landmine, after coming under fire, taking the death toll to 111. Two other Paras were seriously wounded. My cover story for tomorrow’s magazine is about how the military believe the bombs, and many of the men they are fighting, are coming from the lawless Pakistan border territories. The Taliban operates with impunity

Peter Hoskin

Balls predicts a rocky autumn for Labour

Steve Richards has landed an interview with Ed Balls in today’s Independent.  The schools secretary discusses the Sats fiasco, but it’s the same old story – he declines to apologise, and frequently deploys the phrase “arm’s length”.  But he’s a bit more revealing when it comes to the subject of where it’s gone wrong for Gordon Brown this year, and what Labour’s prospects are for the future.  Here are some key quotes: “The 10p tax was a mistake. Other things have not gone right, sometimes through no fault of our own, sometimes because of ministerial decisions… …It’s going to get tougher before it gets easier. Higher gas and electricity bills

Leo McKinstry

Our lazy firemen must make a radical change

Britain’s firefighters are under-worked and inflexible, says Leo McKinstry. It’s time we created a unified emergency service A cooling breeze wafted through the plane trees under the inky-black Provence sky. In the distance, the band played as couples danced. The rural village’s annual summer celebration presented the gentlest of scenes. But suddenly there was a loud crash, followed by a commotion. I looked round to see the aftermath of a nasty accident. An elderly woman, standing near the dance area, had fallen over, badly gashing her mouth and breaking her front teeth. Within minutes, a red emergency vehicle arrived. ‘What use is that? This lady obviously needs an ambulance, not

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

Responsibilty-dodger <em>extraordinaire</em>

Did any CoffeeHousers watch Ed Balls being grilled in the Commons, just over an hour ago?  Unfortunately, I had to miss it, but reading the transcripts over on Politics Home it seems like Balls is shamelessly continuing to dodge responsibility.  Here’s a snippet of what he had to say: “I share the frustration and anger – this should not have happened… …The contract with ETS had been drawn up at arms length to ministers – any contractual discussions are for QCA and ETS.” Gove’s reponse was typically punchy.  Here’s the killer line, which deserves to be plastered all over the news this evening: “Don’t pupils, parents and teachers deserve better than a Secretary of State

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Resigning was the best thing David Marshall ever did for Glasgow East

As soon as David Marshall resigned as Glasgow East’s MP, everyone was looking for the “real” story. Unkind souls say that most MPs stay in office through invalidity so their families can receive the mammoth death-in-service payout (a lump sum of four times their pensionable salary, plus whatever their ill-health pension would have been – details here). Given there are (scandalously) zero requirements made of an MP – you can jet off to Barbados for four years after being elected if you want – it is possible for the infirm to be elected from their hospital beds. So an MP who stands down due to ill health (like Marshall) is,

Peter Hoskin

The Purnell path to power

James Purnell is on manoeuvres.  That certainly seems to be the consensus, and it’s one that I agree with.  The same’s also been said of Ed Balls and David Miliband.  But I’m struck by just how differently Purnell is going about things from his potential rivals.  His approach could pay dividends. You see, the manoeuvres of Ed Balls and David Miliband have largely consisted of showy efforts of support for Gordon Brown – the kind that say “Vote for me, Labour MPs; I’m a good guy”.  Hardly any print or broadcast outlet has been spared their outpourings of devotion for the Dear Leader, and they’ve managed to cram in their “visions for the future of the party” whilst

Peter Hoskin

This has got to stop

The Sun reports that British taxpayers subsidised the House of Commons Refreshment Department to the tune of £5.5 million over the past year. That’s 43 percent of its running costs – and means that MPs enjoy cheaper drinks than the rest of the country, as well as 12 bars which operate without licence and with no restrictions on hours. I’d sound like a Viz letter writer if I fell back on the “It’s one rule for them, and another for us” cliché. But it’s perfectly applicable in this case… Hat-tip: Iain Dale

Monday

Peter Hoskin

A decreased lead for the Tories, but more bad news for Brown

The Guardian have just published their latest ICM poll.  The headline numbers: the Tories are on 43 percent (down 2 from last month); Labour on 28 percent (up 3); and the Lib Dems on 19 percent (down 1).  So Labour have cut into the Tory lead. When you look at the other findings, though, the picture looks bleaker for Brown.  The vast majority of respondents think the UK’s heading towards a recession.  And, when asked who they trust to run the economy, 46 percent picked Cameron and Osborne, compared to only 27 percent for Brown and Darling. It’s a similar story to the Times/Populus poll of a couple of weeks ago. The combination of an improved Labour position with

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

When did the moral crusade turn into a plateful of Brownies?

Gordon Brown must have been at his happiest in Opposition, delivering sermons about how Labour would deliver employment to cure the Tories’ wicked devil-take-the-hindmost approach. In launching the New Deal in Feb98, he had this to say: “Young people are our future. Yet unemployment among the under-25s is twice the national average”. It was true then. But the OECD data flagged up by David Willetts shows it is now a shameful four times the national average. Ten years ago, Brown called the unemployed young people “Major’s children.”  Major, of course, had a recession to contend with – last year, after a decade of growth, youth unemployment rose above the level Brown

Peter Hoskin

Will Purnell’s reforms see the light of day?

The response to James Purnell’s welfare proposals has been near-unanimously positive. Here at Coffee House Towers, the feeling – outlined by Fraser here – is that they’re a positive step towards getting some of the UK’s 5.1 million benefit-claimants back into work. And even Purnell’s opposite number, Chris Grayling, has been gracious enough to call the proposals “the right package” (whilst also claiming that they’ve been nabbed from the Tories). There’s one major dissenter though – Frank Field. He went on the attack on Today this morning, arguing that the proposals still place too much stress on claimants getting a higher rate of benefit. But it’s his later suggestion that the Purnell reforms

Peter Hoskin

Your questions for George Osborne

It’s been a couple of weeks since we asked CoffeeHousers to put forward their questions for George Osborne.  We’ve since picked out the best ten, which have now been put to the shadow chancellor.  He’ll get back to us over the next couple of days. The CoffeeHousers whose questions were chosen can e-mail me on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk to claim their t-shirt and 180th Anniversary issue of the magazine. Anyway, here are the questions: Tiberius   “I understand the reasons for not committing to upfront tax cuts, but there are bound to be some savings available from reform. Do you have any idea at this stage how much could be

Peter Hoskin

Wasting funds for the future

I’m open to alternative suggestions from CoffeeHousers, but if I were to summarise this government in one word, that word would be “wasteful”. Today’s Guardian, for instance, tracks yet another example of massive squander. Remember the Government’s £35 billion ‘Building Schools for the Future’ scheme (BSF), which Brown says will result in UK schools being the “best equipped in the world for 21st-century learning”? Well, according to the Government’s architecture watchdog, some eight-out-of-every-ten new school designs are “mediocre” or “not yet good enough”. Best in the world? Certainly doesn’t sound like it. But the greater waste may be that this money’s being spent in the first place. BSF has always

Sunday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Breakfast briefing

Spotted: Alastair Campbell tucking into a full Scottish breakfast in the Crutherland House Hotel in East Kilbride – a mere 20 minutes drive from the Glasgow East constituency. Coincidence?

Saturday

Elliot Wilson

Who’s in charge? It’s hapless Hank

It’s becoming harder and harder to believe that anyone is really in charge of the world’s largest economy. Each day brings a new catalogue of woes, miscues and missteps, each of which should have been foreseen long ago. And at the centre of each fresh foul-up stands one man: Treasury secretary Hank Paulson, ‘Hammerin’ Hank’, once boss of mighty Goldman Sachs, now reduced to a sort of Frank Spencer figure, constantly bemused by domestic disaster. Only in Hank’s world it’s the American mortgage industry that’s falling apart, not just the kitchen table. The latest stress test for America’s embattled economy is the sudden, alarming decline in the shares of Fannie

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The cross-party consensus on welfare reform echoes the Gingrich–Clinton revolution

The Conservatives are making about as much headway in next week’s Glasgow East by-election as they would on Mars. ‘I told one guy I was from the Conservative party,’ moans one shadow Cabinet member who was campaigning there. ‘He said, “Oh, aye. Where’s that happening then?’’’ Hatred would at least entail some kind of recognition. And yet the emerging Cameroon mission is precisely to help places like this — where the party is, quite literally, beneath contempt. The curse of Glasgow East is worklessness — not just its 6.7 per cent level of unemployment. For every unemployed person, there are seven other people on some other form of welfare dependency.

The Spectator

The mugger’s accomplice

‘Inflation,’ Ronald Reagan declared, ‘is as violent as a mugger.’ In response, the world pursued zero-tolerance policies for two decades, to the point at which politicians and central bankers began to believe they had actually eradicated the menace. When Gordon Brown used to boast that there would be ‘no more boom and bust’, he was relying in large part on a belief that inflation had been permanently defeated by monetary and fiscal prudence combined with globalised trade. But now we know that inflation is on the loose again, and all the more frightening for being unfamiliar. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) stands at 3.8 per cent, a 16-year high and