Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.
As of midnight, the voting on where it all went wrong for Brown stood as follows: The election that wasn’t — 24.4% His addiction to Brownies — 17.1% The 10p tax debacle — 16.5% His uncontested rise to power — 16.5% His inability to say sorry — 13.4% Other — 12.2% Many thanks to all the CoffeeHousers who registered their votes.
The Henley by-election result is striking: John Howell (Cons) 19,796Stephen Kearney’s (Lib Dem) 9,680Mark Stevenson (Green) 1,321Timothy Rait (BNP) 1,243Richard McKenzie (Lab) 1,066Chris Adams (UKIP) 843 Admittedly, Labour didn’t run much of a campaign (and would like to have avoided even contesting the seat if they’d been able to) while the Lib Dems pressed them hard. But still… 3% of the vote? If John Major’s Tories had endured such a result, even in a Labour stronghold, you can imagine that the BBC would be full of chatter about how much longer Major could last and whether, in fact, the game wasn’t already up. Today? not so much… And of course,
Julian “heterodox and hard to label” Sanchez (David Brooks, today) asks a terrifying question. Looking back to undergraduate debating days, he wonders: How many of us are unwittingly broadcasting our membership in that weird fraternity?
Some highlights of the week on Spectator.co.uk The new CoffeeHousers’ Wall feature has been launched. David Davis answers CoffeeHousers’ questions. We ask CoffeeHousers to vote on where it all went wrong for Gordon Brown. Maurice Gerard reports from inside Zimbabwe. Matthew d’Ancona thinks Brown’s uncontested rise to power is a major factor in his poor first year as Prime Minister. Fraser Nelson argues that one shouldn’t shoot the critic, and suggests that Brown is addicted to Brownies. James Forsyth reflects on a positive aspect to Brown’s legacy, and asks what Cameron should say in his Queen’s speech if the Tories win the next general election. Peter Hoskin outlines the 10p tax
The Labour MP John McDonnell has written a piece for Comment is Free. I’d recommend you read it – it’s one of the most significant displays of Brown-bashing so far. Like Matt, McDonnell argues that Brown’s uncontested ascension to the party leadership has harmed both his premiership and the Labour party as a whole. But twelve words in the article will get – and deserve? – all of the attention. Here they are: “Brown is relentlessly leading the Labour party to the edge of extinction…” Of course, Brown and McDonnell are hardly the strongest of allies. And McDonnell isn’t a front-bencher. But this is still astonishing dissent, wherever it comes from in Labour. If
After Labour’s disastrous showing in Henley, William Hill have re-calibrated their odds for when Brown will leave office and for who will succeed him. Miliband’s favourite to be the next party leader (at 3/1), but Tony Blair’s odds have suddenly been cut from 100/1 to 33/1, after a flurry of punter interest. Maybe it’s just one for the silly season, but I’m sure quite a few Labour MPs would be more than happy to have Brown’s predecessor back in No.10. Hat-tip: Politics Home
Over the past week, we’ve been running a series of articles analysing where it all went wrong for Gordon Brown over the past year. Here are the relevant links: Peter Hoskin on the 10p tax debacle; James Forsyth on Brown’s inability to say sorry; Fraser Nelson on Brown’s addiction to Brownies; And Matthew d’Ancona on Brown’s uncontested rise to power. But now it’s the anniversary day of his first year as Prime Minister, we’d like to hear CoffeeHousers’ views on the matter. So we’re asking: what do you think most contributed to Brown’s annus horribilis? Register your vote in the box-out below (if you select ‘Other’, it would be great if you’d specify what in the comments
Lord Ashdown is interviewed by Andrew Neil on BBC News’ Straight Talk this weekend. And Coffee House has been forwarded a few advance quotes. I think this, from Ashdown, is minor classic: “I have made some mistakes in my life but viewed out from a year ago, it does not seem to me that my decision to decline Mr Brown’s kind invitation to join his Government was one of them.” And he continues: “Can [Brown] survive? Well, Margaret Thatcher was more unpopular than him but does he, you know – she had the personality, the opportunity and the luck. He’s an unlucky Prime Minister, he hasn’t got a great personality and I can’t see
Tom Harris says I was “predictably cruel” to Khalid Mahmood who (perhaps deliberately) died on his feet at PMQs. How hard is it to ask a question, I said. “Well, you’ll never know the answer to that, Fraser, but believe me, it’s a lot harder than it looks, and certainly a lot harder than sitting in your office criticising the efforts of others,” replies Tom. This may surprise Harris, but I actually agree with him in that I have no doubt that I’d be a dismal MP. I don’t think many political journalists believe they could do better than the ones whom we, from time to time, lay into. Criticism
This is the fourth in our series of posts looking at where it all went wrong for Gordon Brown. The first, second and third are here, here and here, respectively. When did it all go wrong for Gordon? Before he even began, I now think: on the evening of 16 May, 2007, to be precise. It was then that Brown finally secured the backing of 308 Labour MPs – accounts differ as to whether it was Andrew Mackinlay or Tony Wright who pushed him over the finishing line – thus ensuring that he could not be beaten in a leadership contest. Mr Brown was not to become Prime Minister until June 27, but his
After the drama of Crewe & Nantwich, yesterday’s by-election in Henley looked as though it would be a forgettable affair. After all, Boris’s old constituency is as safe a Tory seat as they come. It was absolutely no surprise when the Tory candidate, John Howell, this morning sailed home to a 10,116 majority over the Lib Dems, on a 50.5 percent turnout. But the Henley by-election will stick in the memory. Not for the vote’s winner, but for its major loser. Languishing in fifth place – with 1,066 votes – were Labour. That put them behind both the Greens (1,321 votes) and the BNP (1,243 votes). Of course, no one
This is the third in our series of posts looking at where it all went wrong for Gordon Brown. The first and second are here and here, respectively. Assessing Gordon Brown’s biggest mistake is like trying to name Elton John’s worst record. There are so many to choose from. But set aside the strategic blunders – like the bungled election – and you have what I think has proved his undoing: his reliance on dodgy statistics. We call them “Brownies” here in Coffee House – statistics produced using a variety of tactics. Sometimes exaggeration, other times simple concoction. But each of them undermines his best hope of success: portraying himself
Nelson Mandela speaking out against Robert Mugabe, last night: Hat-tip: Politics Home
Here are David Davis’s to the last six questions put forward by CoffeeHousers. For Part I click here. 6) Harry: “How do you square your party’s opposition to 42 days detention, and their support for the EU arrest warrant? Are the two not contradictory? Would a Conservative Government repeal/opt-out of the EU arrest warrant?” In fact, four years ago, I am quoted by the Sun as saying that the EU arrest warrant scheme creates: ‘a ludicrous concept’, whereby ‘people can be extradited without trial for an act that may not be an offence in this country.’ I have consistently resisted moves to weaken or remove British control over our criminal
We’ve just uploaded the latest magazine content, and I’d recommend you check out Fraser’s article on the initial priorities of a Cameron government. What will they be? As Fraser puts it: “My conversations with the key players in the preparation strategy suggest unambiguously that schools reform and an overhaul of the welfare system will be the priorities — the hope being that both undertakings will have yielded palpable interim results which will help Mr Cameron secure a second term.” In other words, the Tories will push what are currently their most promising – and fully fleshed-out – policy areas. This is no bad thing. The ideas of Chris Grayling and
Stephen points out that there may be one last obstacle to ratification of the Lisbon Treaty.
So Brown’s decided not to mark his first anniversary as Prime Minister. But David Miliband is doing. He’s interviewed by Steve Richards in today’s Independent, under the headline ‘Miliband’s manifesto’. Cue much cursing and spluttering in No.10. To be fair, Miliband refuses to be drawn on questions of party leadership, as in this passage: “I put it to him that some of his admirers in the Labour party were disappointed he did not challenge Brown in last year’s leadership contest. Some of them wonder whether he really wants to be a leader. Could he reassure them by making it clear that at some point he has the appetite to lead?
Here are David Davis’ answers to the first 5 questions put forward by CoffeeHousers: 1) Simon Chapman: “The Conservative Party had won the argument and the moral victory. There are still battles to be fought in Parliament. As Shadow Home Secretary, in the current polls, you had the opportunity in two years time to reverse not only 42 days but the whole erosion of liberty that you have championed. Why, then, did you decide that your resignation was a more effective strategy for your cause and to achieve your objective of civil liberty reform, than the alternative option open to you: staying in your job, leading the parliamentary battle, and
I had thought it impossible to pay tribute to our servicemen in a more garbled way than Brown did last week. But Khalid Mahmood proved me wrong. He stuttered, gasped, looked at his papers. How difficult can it be to ask one question? When he sat down, I thought he’d be mortified. But he smiled broadly, and a mischievous thought struck me. Was his job to sound so breathtakingly incoherent that Gordon Brown sounds fluent? Perhaps his trick worked, because Brown came across better than we’re used to. And Cameron was not quite as good as normal, going on strikes. Brown asks what the Tory position is on reopening pay deals
Courtesy of the essential Politics Home, here’s footage of the Brown & Cameron exchanges in PMQs today. Fraser’s report will be up in a couple of minutes.