Politics

Do check out Mike Smithson’s latest post over at Political Betting, in which he relays an email he received from Nick Sparrow of ICM.  Sparrow highlights the close fit between August ICM polls in the years before elections and the actual election results themselves: “August 1996 poll suggested that Labour were ahead by 12%. The result – Labour won by 13% August 2000 poll suggested that Labour were ahead by 10% The result – Labour won by 9% August 2004 poll suggested that Labour were ahead by 3% The result – Labour won by 3% August 2009 poll suggests that the Tories are ahead by 16% The result – ?????????”

So the Afghans have now voted in their second-ever presidential elections. Well, some of them have. But with the extent of voting unclear, accusations of poll-rigging rife and violence claiming countless innocent lives, it is far too early to call the process a success. Today, the Elections Commission will likely release preliminary results, with a full tally expected in a month’s time. Wisely, key US and UK officials have been circumspect in their pronouncements. The EU Monitoring Mission has said the election was “mostly good and fair.”  But Afghan observers cited “some credible allegations of fraud and mistakes by elections officials.”  NDI, the US organisation, said the poll “involved serious

In an episode of Yes Prime Minister, a tobacco mogul asks Sir Humphrey: “Does he carry any clout in Whitehall?” The Mandarin replies: “None at all, he’s only a minister.” The context has changed but the essential truth remains – most Cabinet ministers have no clout in government whatsoever. That at least is the view of four former Sir Humphreys. Lords Turnbull, Wilson, Butler, and Armstrong are quoted in the Guardian saying that New Labour has centralised government around a clique of special advisers. The result? The marginalisation of the cabinet and the breakdown of what they term ‘the efficient and proper conduct of government’. Not even Jonathan Powell denies

Last week, defence maestro Kevan Jones launched his master-strategy to smear General Sir Richard Dannatt. It was ingenious. An FOI request would reveal the General to be a spendthrift, abusing taxpayers’ generosity by lavishing their money on his grace and favour accommodation and on raucous parties for his army mates. To borrow a phrase, there was just one small flaw in the plan: it was rubbish. The Mail reveals that General Dannatt’s grace and favour apartment is a stable block, not a palace, and that he pays tax on it because he views it as a perk. His other claims are modest. Audiciously, Sir Richard secured £19,270.77p in expenses between 2005

It’s worth reading Iain Dale’s interview with Ann Widdecombe in the latest issue of Total Politics. Widdecombe is, of course, standing down at the next election, and much of the interview concerns her future plans: she wants to appear on Strictly Come Dancing, for instance, perhaps as the feminine answer to John Sergeant. But, naturally, the outspoken MP makes some forceful points about the current state of British politics. Her conclusion?  That things are so bad she’s had enough. First, she attacks Cameron’s ‘A-list’ candidate selection policy: ‘We have gone for category rather than ability. We’re looking for more women. I’m all for more women, I’m all for more members