Politics Archives

Sunday

3 Aug 2008

How different things would be if Blair had sacked Brown

As the Blair memo shows us today, the grinning charlatan had the right idea. He stayed too long, and as a result his own popularity was destroyed. But he knew how to fight the Tories. If his “trust schools” idea had not been torn to shreds by Labour rebels (who were directed by Brown), Michael Gove would not have an education policy. If Blair had kept his nerve with welfare reform in 1998, then he would have used the boom years to do what Chris Grayling will do in office – and the Tories would not have a welfare policy. The Blairites knew (after 2001) that the country wants more power in

Peter Hoskin

Has Harman ruled herself out?

Harriet Harman has been one of those mooted to succeed Gordon Brown. But here’s what she says in today’s News of the World (article not online, as far as I can tell): “When you face these kinds of global problems you need as prime minister someone who is respected … Gordon Brown is the right person for the job.” With a leadership struggle on the horizon, there’s a danger of reading too much into what the main players say. And, as James suggested a few days ago, Harman could be holding back for strategic reasons. But, still, this message of support sounds as unambiguous as they get. Certainly more unambiguous than anything David

Peter Hoskin

Will the money men help Miliband’s cause?

The Miliband leadership bid is picking up steam. According to today’s Sunday Telegraph, his team are already drafting the Foreign Secretary’s speech for the upcoming Labour conference – and it’s set to offer an “alternative vision of Labour’s future” to the one put forward by Brown. All fascinating stuff. But, in the same Sunday Telegraph article, it’s this passage that jumped out at me: “Allies of the Foreign Secretary signalled that wealthy private individuals who had stopped giving Labour money under Mr Brown were likely to be persuaded to reopen their cheque books if Mr Miliband became leader.” If this is true, the money men really could play a crucial role

Peter Hoskin

GB demolished by TB

Earlier this week, the expectation was the the Brownite attack dogs would set about demolishing David Miliband in today’s papers. But – as I outlined here – they were soon brought to heel by Brown, on Stephen Carter’s advice. So what’s in today’s paper’s instead? Answer: a whole load of trouble for our Prime Minister. The worst for him is in the Mail on Sunday. They’ve managed to get their hands on what is alleged to be a memo sent out by Tony Blair after last year’s Labour conference. In it, he lauches a scathing assault on Brown and his premiership. Our Dear Leader is accused of being a “lamentable” and “vacuous” prime minister, who’s “junked the [Blairite] policy agenda

Saturday

2 Aug 2008

Peter Hoskin

The Sunday Essay: send in your submissions

We’re introducing a new feature to Coffee House – the Sunday Essay. Each Sunday, we’ll post an essay by one of our readers, on any political, cultural or sporting topic. The first essay will appear on Sunday, 10 August. If you’d like your writing to be considered, just e-mail an article of between 500 and 1500 words to me at phoskin @ spectator.co.uk – the Coffee House team will pick out the best submission each week, and post it on the website the following Sunday. It doesn’t matter whether you’re an MP, a member of the policy wonk world, or have nothing to do with politics whatsoever – all submissions will be read and evaluated. So,

Charles Moore

The Spectator’s Notes | 2 August 2008

When David and Samantha Cameron appeared in the newspapers on Monday, photographed on the beach at Harlyn Bay in Cornwall, it was a ‘defining moment’. For the first time in our history, a British political leader has clearly benefited from a holiday snap. Harold Macmillan was pictured on a grouse moor, looking socially divisive. Harold Wilson, in shorts and sandals and with pipe on the Isles of Scilly, did not look like a leader of men. Jeremy Thorpe charged up holiday beaches in a hovercraft, wearing a three-piece suit and a trilby hat (am I making this up?). Mrs Thatcher, also in Cornwall, but in a headscarf, was visibly impatient

Alex Massie

When You’ve Lost Polly Toynbee…

I read Polly Toynbee today and assumed it had to have been written by some pluck-faced intern charged with writing nonsense in the style of La Toynbee while she gets away from it all at her Tuscan villa. But apparently not. It is not a spoof or a parody. Anyway: Gordon is dead, long live the boy Dave! Seriously. Even so, it’s worth noting that even Brown’s most deluded defenders are now switching sides. Suddenly everything changed. The burst of optimism was so startling it dazzled those too long trapped deep in a dungeon. In that one moment it was all over for the old leader who had plunged them

Peter Hoskin

Will Toynbee’s praise help or hinder Miliband?

Polly Toynbee’s article in today’s Guardian is really quite remarkable. She’s certainly cooled towards Brown and his government over recent months. But now the split is complete and unequivocal. Here’s what she has to say about the Prime Minister’s reshuffle plans: “It’s all too late. No one listens to a leader once 85% of people decide he is ‘not up to the job’, as in this week’s YouGov poll. It needs someone untrammelled by the past to change direction now.” And who should that someone be? Toynbee certainly rhapsodises enough about David Miliband. His Guardian op-ed is described as a “sketched outline of radical policies”. And his appearance on the Jeremy Vine Show apparently

Peter Hoskin

On the verge of a reshuffle

Brace yourselves – the reshuffle forecasts have shifted from ‘likely’ to ‘imminent’. According to this morning’s paper’s, one could come as early as September 1st, as Brown tries to reestablish his government after the summer recess. So, who’ll go where? Well, there’s talk of promotions to the Cabinet for Liam Bryne and Jim Murphy (the former was awarded The Spectator/Threadneedle’s ‘Minister to Watch’ 2007, and the latter was recently interviewed by Fraser). And demotions for Des Browne, Paul Murphy and Hilary Benn. But the big question is of what Brown will do with David Miliband, if the Foreign Secretary hasn’t formally lauched a leadership challenge by then. A “job swap” between him and Alistair Darling is “one option” currently being considered – sending Milband to the Treasury,

Fraser Nelson

‘There is nothing saying Labour will ever win power again’

The choice facing the governing party is between defeat and annihilation, says Fraser Nelson. For now, Labour is mired in ‘division without decision’ as Jack Straw, David Miliband and others wait to see who — if anyone — will wield the knife against Gordon Brown The catalpa trees in New Palace Yard are in bloom, a glorious heatwave has struck London. Yet dark despair is curling through the core of the Labour party. From Cabinet level to the rank and file, there is a hardening awareness that for Gordon Brown to fight the next election would be to court disaster. Yet no one can say with confidence how the Prime

The Spectator

Leader of the lemmings

So madly introspective and self-obsessed has Labour become that it seems almost impolite to intrude upon its private agonies. Yet since the party is still notionally governing the nation it is our duty to knock on the door, and ask what all the tears and shouting are about. The conduct of the government since the Glasgow East by-election has been a study in the pathology of denial. The Prime Minister and his colleagues insist that they are ‘getting on with the job’ and focusing on the public’s priorities — refusing, so they claim, to be distracted by little local difficulties. One wonders how many little local difficulties are needed —

Friday

1 Aug 2008

Alex Massie

The pity! The pity!

If you think John McCain has problems or you think George W Bush is unpopular, spare a thought for poor Gordon Brown. I can’t recall when I last saw a poll as brutal as today’s Daily Telegraph/Yougov survey. Look at this: 15%! To repeat, 15%! Hell, Brown’s plight is so severe that 42% of voters now feel “sorry” or “very sorry” for him. You’d put a dog out of it’s misery and pain if it were suffering like this…

The Spectator

The week that was | 1 August 2008

A selection of posts made this week on Spectator.co.uk: Fraser Nelson wonders whether Alex Salmond is the real threat for Labour, and laments Gordon Brown’s reverse Midas touch. James Forsyth says the numbers don’t add up for David Miliband, and gives his take on the Foreign Secretary’s infamous Guardian op-ed. Peter Hoskin reports on a poll kicking for Brown and his would-be leadership challengers, and observes the parallels between Brown and Nixon. Daniel Korski gives his suggestions for how David Cameron should reshape the machinery of government. Sean Martin assesses the new search engine Cuil. Stephen Pollard claims Cameron’s got it right when it comes to teaching children to drink.

Fraser Nelson

We’re hurtling over the economic precipice

Like the Road Runner’s Coyote speeding off a cliff, it will take some time before Britain looks down and realises that Brown has led us over an economic precipice. The CPI target of 2% inflation will be a joke – from now until about 2010. We’re likely to hit 5% by Christmas and stay there for a good chunk of next year. It will, quite literally, be the biggest overshoot anywhere in the world now – not just currently, but in the history of inflation targeting outside of Africa. Even the Bank of England is coming to terms with this, so we can forget a rate cut next week. Citibank thinks

Peter Hoskin

Your questions for Chris Grayling

It’s been a week since we asked CoffeeHousers to put forward their questions for Chris Grayling. We’ve since picked out the best five, which have now been put to the shadow work and pensions secretary. He’ll get back to us at the start of next week. The CoffeeHousers whose questions were chosen can e-mail me on phoskin @ spectator.co.uk to claim their t-shirt and 180th Anniversary issue of the magazine. Anyway, here are the questions: Marcus Cotswell “What are your plans for reducing the incidence of means-testing in the benefit system, with particular reference to the impact on incentives to save?” Diana “Is there a place for Frank Field in

Peter Hoskin

Will the tensions at No.10 leave the door open for Miliband?

Much has been made about the tensions between the Brownite old guard and the Stephen Carter-led new guard at No.10. Those same tensions are now threatening to play havoc with Brown’s response to the speculation surrounding his position. The initial response of “Brown’s allies” to Miliband’s infamous op-ed was all-out war. They briefed newspapers that the Foreign Secretary is everything from “immature” to “a traitor”. The word in Westminster is that that briefing came from the stable of Ian Austin / Damian McBride – the Brownite old guard. It wasn’t sanctioned by Brown, and even he’s said to have been taken aback by its ferocity. Equally taken aback – and furious – is

Peter Hoskin

Miliband: ‘Cameron’s substance is nonsense’

Ok, so that isn’t a new quote from David Miliband – it’s the headline to an article he penned for The Spectator back in October 2006. After the events of the past week, it’s well worth another read. UPDATE: At the suggestion of CoffeeHouser Terry (see comments below), here’s Oliver Letwin’s reponse to Miliband – ‘It is Milband, not Cameron, who’s confused’

Peter Hoskin

Boris backs Obama

Boris has endorsed Barack Obama’s bid for the US Presidency, claiming that a victory for the Illinois senator would “do fantastic things for the confidence and feelings of black people around the world”. It means the London Mayor has broken political convention on getting involved in foreign elections. And I imagine he’s ruffled a few Tory feathers in the process. P.S. Do check out The Spectator’s endorsement of John McCain here.

Fraser Nelson

Has Brown’s reverse Midas touch upset the British Energy takeover deal?

I, for one, am weeping no tears about the collapse of the British Energy takeover deal. Invesco and Prudential – the institutional shareholders understood to have led the backout – are right to say that if energy prices are likely to be high for the foreseeable future then a greater premium should be attached to the price. They’re especially right to be nervous if the matchmaker was one Gordon Brown, who has a reverse Midas touch when making investment decisions. First came his disastrous foray into asset management, selling the nation’s gold at a fraction of today’s price (actually, it’s worth being specific: he sold our gold for $275 an ounce, against

Peter Hoskin

Can anything go right for Labour?

Since June, Jack Straw’s been trying to push through reforms which would limit the Tories’ ability to pour £millions into key marginal seats between elections – the ‘Ashcroft Effect’ as it’s sometimes called. Well, it’s not looking too promising for Straw’s plans. The Guardian have got their hands on a document in which the Electoral Commission’s chief executive, Peter Wardle, expresses “serious reservations” about the proposed reforms. Of course, the commission can’t block the legislation. But the reforms would only come into effect after it’s offered its guidance. And the commission’s reservations mean that Straw may be waiting some time for that. So much time, in fact, that it’s looking unlikely the changes will come into effect before the next election. So, Tory