Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The fictions have begun…

The Prime Minister’s Spokesman has just given the lobby a briefing – and repeating what Darling briefed the Cabinet. I hope Chancellor started his presentation with the words “once upon a time” because what followed was demonstrable fiction. Here are the main points:- 1) All the countries in the world are facing problems 2) Britain is well-placed to withstand these problems. 3) Inflation is low 4) Debt is low, by historical and international standards are low 5) Economic growth is resilient. My response: 1) There is a global credit crunch, but Britain will be amongst the worst hit by it (see point 5) 2) We would be well-placed had a

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What’s the right response to boredom?

The spin ahead of the Budget is that it is going to be really quite dull, a chance for Darling to remind us of his ability to bore us all into submission. The Treasury keeps stressing that there are no rabbits to be pulled out of hats. Either this is an elaborate double-bluff or we are all going to need to heavily caffeinate ourselves to get through the speech, my money—the £1.79 for a coffee at Pret to be precise—is on the latter. If Darling plays it Boycott straight, it poses a challenge for David Cameron. Most of his backbenchers, and his grassroots, will be looking for a morale boosting,

Matthew Dancona

Lest we forget | 12 March 2008

Lest we forget: in the midst of today’s Budget-mania, pause and consider that the Lisbon Treaty, a sweeping package of reforms to our relationship with the EU, cleared the Commons without a hitch last night. So much for Tony Blair’s promise in April 2004 to mount a definitive national debate on the original EU Constitutional Treaty (of which the present Treaty is a shame-faced near-replica). “Let the issue be put and let the battle be joined!” declared Blair in the Commons. Well, that pledge of a referendum was dumped on the spurious grounds that the new text is not “constitutional” – and so there will be no battle to join.

Tuesday

The Spectator

Budget 2008: Live coverage

Tune into Coffee House tomorrow for live coverage of Alistair Darling’s Budget speech from 12:30pm.  Throughout the day, we’ll have anaylsis from Matthew d’Ancona, Fraser Neslon, Martin Vander Weyer and several guest contributors.

Peter Hoskin

Budget 2008: What to expect

The Guardian’s politics blog has a great post outlining all the the latest “speculation, leaks and educated guesses” on tomorrow’s Budget.  So far the most striking predictions are: 1) £5 billion of tax rises; 2) more cash for failing inner city schools and the Academies programme; 3) a tax on plastic bags, among a whole raft of green proposals; and 4) an above-inflation increase for the duty on beer, wine and spirits.

Peter Hoskin

An unfashionable view

MPs will soon have to show receipts for all expenses claims over £25.  After the Conway scandal, surely that’s a good thing?  I think so.  Yet the press release sent out by Martyn Jones MP – and highlighted over at Red Box – does make some persuasive points against.  Here’s the key passage: “Monitoring an influx of allowance claim forms will require the Department of Finance and Administration to employ more staff for more hours. This department already costs £17,000,000 per year to run and has increased by over a third the amount of people it employs in the past twenty years. I am not trying to say that MPs are above scrutiny

Peter Hoskin

Devolving responsibility 

Three Line Whip are reporting that Paul Murphy, the current Welsh Secretary, is being lined up by Gordon Brown for a new Cabinet position – the Secretary of State for the UK’s devolved regions: Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.  After Lord Goldsmith’s suggestions this morning, it looks like another effort to coordinate Britishness.

Peter Hoskin

A poll conundrum

The latest Times / Populus poll places the Tories on 37 percent (down 3 on last month); Labour on 34 percent (up 3); and the Lib Dems on 19 percent (up 2). The poll was conducted at the weekend – after the vote for a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty – making the Labour and Lib Dem gains counterintuitive.  I’m aware that Europe doesn’t rank high among voters’ concerns.  But other evidence strongly suggests that people care about a referendum, if only because it was a manifesto promise.  How to read the poll findings, then?  Do people not feel all that betrayed by Labour and the Lib Dems, or has the sentiment just not filtered through in this

Monday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Hammond puts his foot in it

Philip Hammond, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury, has just finished a pre-Budget lobby briefing, which I suspect will end in some troublesome headlines for him tomorrow for two reasons.  First, non doms. Hammond asks us to believe that the Tory non-dom tax would scare away fewer millionaires than Labour’s policy. But the Tory figures claim they’d sting non-doms for £2.8bn, four times what Labour hope to sting the non doms for (Labour will only tax those who have been here for seven years). Hammond says the non-doms prefer certainty. Presumably for newly-arrived non doms that means the certainty of getting stung for £25k under the Tories versus the certainty of

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Darling wins one

Over at Boulton and Co, Jonathan Levy reports that Alistair Darling has successfully faced down Gordon Brown over who should lead an inquiry into the economic effects of climate change. Darling wanted Adair Turner but Brown is still unhappy with Turner over his pension reform report which was too free thinking for Brown’s tastes. However, the puppet Chancellor has stood his ground and Turner will reportedly be announced as the head of this review later today. All this acts as further proof of Iain Martin’s thesis that after his nightmare start and the briefing against him, Darling is now determined to fight his corner. 

Peter Hoskin

Budget 2008: Sending out a message

As Dr Oliver Hartwich outlined on Coffee House yesterday, The Treasury doesn’t have much room for manoeuvre ahead of Wednesday’s Budget.  In short: it’s down to our economy being taxed, spent and borrowed up to the hilt.  Even shorter: it’s down to Gordon Brown’s decade as Chancellor. What, then, can Alistair Darling use the Budget for?  He’d have found some inspiration at the pre-Budget event organised by the British Bankers’ Association (BBA) and the think-tank Reform this morning.  As the chief executive of the BBA, Angela Knight, put it: this Budget shouldn’t be about tweaking, twitching or changing – there’s no space for that.  Instead, it should be about “sending out a message”.  A message which tells the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

And the lion shall lie down with the lamb

The most surprising piece of news in the papers this morning is that Gordon Brown is sounding Peter Mandelson out about whether he would like to serve a second term as Britain’s European Commissioner. It is, as The Times notes, a rather drastic turn around since last March when Mandelson rather tartly declared: “I don’t know whether this is going to come as a disappointment to him, but he can’t actually fire me. So like it or not, I’m afraid he will have to accept me as commissioner until November 2009. But I will not be seeking a nomination for a further term.” It appears that the great Mandelson Brown

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Political progress in Iraq

The latest State of Iraq update from the Brookings Institution in The New York Times confirms the security success of the surge—there have been fewer civilian deaths in Iraq this past February than in any since the war started. Now, the argument moves to whether Iraqi politicians are capable of taking advantage of the space created by the surge. It is clear that national reconciliation in Iraq remains a considerable way off. But it would be wrong to dismiss the definite signs of progress we have seen on this front recently. As the report notes, “The most intriguing area of late is the sphere of politics. To track progress, we

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The height of hypocrisy

I was right – Clegg’s speech was better with the volume down. He wasn’t just copying Cameron’s walkabout speech tactics but also his “broken politics” analysis (itself inspired by Obama). Given his role in last week’s vote on the EU referendum, it was the height of hypocrisy. He led his party to abstain, thus denying the public the say he promised them in his own manifesto. Actions speak louder than words in politics. He was forced to choose between the people (who want a referendum) and the Westminster system he affects to despise. In that vote, he showed the world where his loyalties lie. He was a key accomplice in

Michael Fallon

Budget 2008: Brown’s wasted years

Five years ago, Gordon Brown’s 2003 Budget forecast that the current budget would now be in surplus by £9 billion.  That might have allowed the new Chancellor to cut taxes for the lowest-paid, or to invest more money in our third world infrastructure. In fact, the budget never got into surplus at all.  Brown conceded a year ago that the deficit this March would be £4 billion.  In October Alistair Darling increased that to £8.3 billion.  The City fears it will turn out even higher. The good years have been wasted.  The budget is now forecast to reach surplus by 2010, four years later than originally planned.  Overall debt today is

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

Hamming it up

Well, David Cameron has changed politics in this regard: no party leader can give a speech without walking around the stage – at least for a bit.  Over at the Lib Dem Spring Conference, Clegg is hamming it up a bit too much – flapping his hands like he’s trying to take off. I’ll watching from the best possible vantage point: a cafe, which has the tv on but volume turned down. I’ll eat my hat if the text of his speech is half as good as Cable’s yesterday. After the self-inflicted humiliation of the EU vote last week, the best Clegg can hope for is damage limitation.

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Talking the talk while walking the walk

David Cameron’s piece in The Sunday Telegraph this morning is a neat example of how he tries to position himself politically. On the one hand, the article is about what could be considered a classically right-wing cause: getting those on incapacity benefit who, physically, can work off the welfare roll and into paying employment. But rather than concentrating on the tough side of this message—for instance, the Tory’s plans for independent medical check for all incapacity benefit claimants—Cameron focuses on the children, worrying about the “half a million children who are dependent on their parents’ incapacity benefit. That’s half a million kids trapped in poverty with parents who, increasingly, are

Saturday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Can Cable turn the Lib Dems into The British Bull Moose Party?

Vince Cable’s speech to the Lib Dem spring conference today showed how fortunate it was for the two main parties that he did not become leader either in 2006 or after Ming Campbell’s departure. He is able to deliver cutting criticism of the two main parties while staking out political positions that appeal to both Labour and Tory voters. The address was littered with Cable’s usual telling jokes. His one on Northern Rock definitely hit home: “During the Northern Rock crisis the boat was drifting listlessly. Captain Brown was hiding in his cabin. And Midshipman Osborne was jumping excitedly in and out of a lifeboat.” But the most powerful part of

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The Brown Machine Roars into Gear

I am taken to task by CoffeeHousers for praising Brown’s new team– or, as CS rather wonderfully puts it, “making cow eyes at the latest set of rentaquote spivs”. Have I gone native in a Westminster village that confuses spinners with real people? John says I’m too close to the story: outsiders should not be hired in British politics. After indulging me with that 2,400-word extended version of my political column, here’s a rather prolix reply.   First, CS, I have done a few blogs saying Team Brown is getting better because I have found this to be the case. Simple as that. Labour’s attack machine is sharper. Twice now

Friday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

“Appalling people doing appalling things”

Great column by Simon Jenkins in today’s Guardian. The celebration of the “Cheeky Brothers” Martin McGuinness and Ian Paisley has been nauseating. Now the old brute has gone and good riddance to him. Or at least so you might think. But no, instead you could have been forgiven for supposing that a national treasure is slipping from the scene. Jenkins is absolutely correct: Why do rats float while good men sink? Readers may have exploded over the headline on this page yesterday. It read “A fascinating, gracious man”, and crowned a eulogy on Northern Ireland’s retiring first minister, Ian Paisley, written by his one-time bitterest foe, Gerry Adams of Sinn