Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Wednesday

29 May 2024

Could the election be closer than you think?

Yesterday, the firm I work for, J.L. Partners, released a poll showing a 12-point lead for Labour over the Conservatives. This gap between the parties is much narrower than other polling companies are predicting – with several other polls showing a 20 point plus lead for Labour. Our poll still shows that Labour is heading for victory, but it has already been seized on by the Conservatives as a sign that they are still in contention in this election campaign. What explains the difference in these polls? And could the election in fact be closer than many think? To understand how we have arrived at this result, you also have to understand the

Steerpike

Is Apsana Begum next to go from Labour?

It’s a busy day in Labour land, following the mishandling of the Diane Abbott disaster. But now Mr S hears of a fresh row brewing in another of Labour’s London safe seats. In 2019, the Corbynite candidate Apsana Begum was chosen to replace the moderate Jim Fitzpatrick for the Poplar and Limehouse constituency. Her first two years as an MP were dominated by her trial for housing fraud, of which she was cleared in court in July 2021. She subsequently fell out with her constituency party to such an extent that in July 2022, the local branches and their affiliates voted for a full ‘recall’ process to determine who would

Terry Barnes

Victoria’s absurd new minister for men’s behaviour

Australian states like to advertise themselves on car number plates with a catchy slogan capturing what they see as their self-image. My home state of Victoria’s slogan is ‘The Place to Be’. When it comes to identity politics and the state government’s obsession with progressive causes – to the point of being extremist – Victoria is very much Australia’s place to be. To assume, as Allan has, that all men are toxic perpetrators-in-waiting is an insult to the overwhelming majority of men who deplore family violence of any sort Cursed with a conservative opposition that can’t organise a knees-up in a brewery, Victoria is all but permanently governed by an Australian Labor party that, even

Steerpike

Iain Dale quits LBC to run as Tory candidate

It’s the end of an era for over 70 Tory MPs who will quit their seats at the next election – but one media veteran is making a rather interesting move in the opposite direction. Iain Dale, who has worked at LBC since 2010 and has presented a number of shows including Cross Question and All Talk, told listeners on Tuesday night that the show would be his last as he wants to stand for the Tory candidacy in Tunbridge Wells. After an extremely successful broadcast career, it’s quite the decision… The seat is currently held by Greg Clark MP, who announced last week that he will be joining the

Arieh Kovler

Netanyahu’s strategy in Rafah isn’t working

On 7 April, six months after the October massacres in southern Israel, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told the public that the country was just ‘one step away from victory’ in its war against Hamas in Gaza. Nearly two months later, Israel hasn’t taken that step yet. The war continues. No more hostages have been released alive. Hamas rockets still fall inside Israel, including a barrage earlier this week that rained down on the suburbs of Tel Aviv. The two leaders of Israel’s war effort haven’t spoken to each other for a fortnight In the meantime, international public opinion has hardened against Israel. Some countries, like Colombia, have broken diplomatic relations.

Steerpike

Has Starmer told the truth about Diane Abbott?

Sir Keir Starmer has made personal integrity front and centre of his election campaign. When asked about his multiple broken pledges two days ago, the Labour leader declared that ‘I think it’s more important to stand in front of the electorate and say, “I’m sorry, I can’t now afford what I said before”… I’m not going to tell you you can have everything and then break a promise’… I think that is basic honesty with the electorate.’ But has Starmer given that ‘basic honesty’ when it comes to the matter of one of his own party’s MPs? On Friday, Sir Keir was asked by LBC’s Nick Ferrari about his party’s

Andrew Tettenborn

Is the West being hypocritical about Georgia’s foreign agents law?

The Georgian parliament has rammed through its new foreign agents law amid massive protests, overriding the veto of pro-western and pro-EU president Salome Zourabichvili. The new law essentially will require all non-commercial organisations operating in Georgia to register as foreign agents and publicise themselves as such if they receive over 20 per cent of their funding from abroad. Its aim is to counter the influence of pro-western NGOs in the country. The Georgian government has a point when it defends the requirement of registration as a transparency measure The proposal has already caused serious unrest, and this will undoubtedly now balloon. You can see why. The government led by ruling

Tuesday

28 May 2024

Steerpike

Diane Abbott banned from standing for Labour

The drama in Westminster never seems to end – and tonight is certainly no exception to that rule. In one of the biggest developments of the week, it transpires that Sir Keir Starmer’s Labour party will not allow veteran MP Diane Abbott to represent the party at the upcoming general election. However, Abbott has reportedly been given the Labour whip back as a middle way. The Hackney North & Stoke Newington MP was the first black woman elected to parliament, serving continually since 1987 and achieving a majority of over 33,000 in 2019 – but Labour’s decision this evening is likely to bring her 37-year political career to end. The

Steerpike

Poll slashes Labour lead to just 12 points

They think it’s all over – but is that actually the case? After a difficult start to the campaign for the Conservatives, many of their own MPs had privately written off their chances at this election. However a new poll out tonight could force the skeptics to think again, with Labour’s lead down to just 12 points. The survey for JL Partners revealed that the Starmer army still retain some 40 per cent of the vote but suggested Sunak and the Tories are coming up on the rails with 28 per cent. The fieldwork for this poll was done on Friday 24 and Saturday 25 May, shortly after the Prime

Steerpike

BBC presenter grovels after Farage jibe

It seems these days that the BBC is doing a better job of creating the news than presenting it. Today’s row is about one of the broadcaster’s stars entering into a spat with Reform’s Nigel Farage — and losing rather spectacularly… The I’m a Celeb finalist was out today helping promote Richard Tice’s party in Dover as he made his first big speech of the election campaign. At a gathering of party supporters and journalists, Farage spoke of immigration problems seen in Europe. Quoting remarks made by Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, the Reform founder pointed to ‘the wave of — and I’m using his words not mine — “aggressive, young males” that

James Heale

Police drop investigation into Rayner housing claims

Labour’s election campaign continues to get off to a good start. Greater Manchester Police (GMP) has today confirmed that it will take no further action against Angela Rayner after accusations surrounding her living arrangements. Officers from the force launched an investigation into the party’s deputy leader in April after Tory MP James Daly registered a complaint. It followed reports in the Mail which suggested that Rayner might have lived primarily at her then-husband’s address in Stockport, despite registering to vote under her own – a potential breach of electoral rules. But this afternoon GMP released a 121-word statement which says that after ‘a thorough, carefully considered and proportionate investigation’ they

Katy Balls

Who’s winning the TikTok election battle?

12 min listen

Days into the election campaign and parties are scrambling to get their message out on social media. With both Labour and the Conservatives joining TikTok, who has a stronger message? Katy Balls speaks to Sean Topham, co-founder of Topham Guerin who ran the Conservative’s 2019 social media campaign.

Steerpike

Reeves reprises her Wikipedia tribute act

Once we had New Labour: now we have Changed Labour. As part of Sir Keir Starmer’s bid to prove that his party is different (honest!) since the far-off Corbyn days of, er, April 2020, Labour has been out today banging the drum for business. The Opposition is terribly proud of itself for stitching together a letter of support for its economic policies, signed, no less, by some of the country’s leading business experts. What a coup! But Mr S could not help but wonder about some of the names signing the letter that Rachel Reeves touted today in her big speech in Derby. For one thing, there were no FTSE 100

Limor Simhony Philpott

Israel may have to stop its offensive in Rafah

The devastating fire that, according to Hamas, killed dozens of displaced civilians in Rafah and that reportedly started because of an Israeli attack on Hamas terrorists, has come at the worse possible time for Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu. Four days ago, the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ruled that Israel must immediately halt activities in Rafah. Although the language used by the court could imply that Israel may carry out some activities in the city as long as it conforms to its obligations under the Genocide Convention, there were international calls on Israel to cease all activities, and warnings of a disaster have sadly come true. Israel’s ability to carry on in

James Heale

Farage speaks of ‘six-year plan’ as he launches campaign

The Royal Cinque Ports Yachts Club was an appropriate place for Nigel Farage to make his first big speech of the election campaign today. Set on the Dover seafront, it offered the perfect setting for Farage – Reform’s honorary president and spiritual figurehead – to lambast the Tory record on small boats. The Conservatives, he said, had betrayed their 2019 voters by allowing an ‘invasion’ of migrants: ‘If 3,800 boats and 125,000 people isn’t a sort of slow motion D-Day in reverse, I don’t know what is.’ It was the kind of stump speech that we have seen honed in endless GB News monologues, with the familiar cast of villains:

Steerpike

Watch: Ed Davey struggles to stay afloat during campaign tour

It’s a gaffe a day in British politics, as poorly-planned campaign visits are fast turning party leaders into laughing stocks. The latest victim is none other than Sir Ed Davey, who is currently on a UK tour to spread the word that the Liberal Democrats are putting the issue of sewage dumping at the top of their manifesto. This morning, Davey joined local MP Tim Farron on a constituency visit to Windermere in the Lake District to campaign on water cleanliness. For that reason alone — never mind the fact that the Lib Dem leader is not exactly an, um, experienced paddleboarder — it’s certainly rather brave of Sir Ed

Kate Andrews

Did Rachel Reeves just rule out more tax hikes?

Speaking to business leaders in the East Midlands this morning, Rachel Reeves delivered a fairly uncontroversial speech. In her first major address since the election was called last week, the shadow chancellor insisted that Labour is the ‘natural party of British business’ (a point bolstered by today’s letter signed by over 100 business chiefs endorsing Labour). She said she wanted ‘to lead the most pro-growth, pro-business Treasury our country has ever seen’ – who could argue with that? She then went on to restate her commitment to fiscal discipline and a promise to make the numbers add up. While the dig at free markets won’t have been everyone’s cup of tea, it was

Iain Macwhirter

The SNP has finally given up on Greta Thunberg

It is less than three years since Nicola Sturgeon was taking selfies with Greta Thunberg at the COP26 climate talks in Glasgow. Now in this election the climate, if you’ll excuse the pun, has changed beyond all recognition. Gone is the moral posturing and climate alarmism of recent years as the Scottish parties desperately roll back on their climate rhetoric in the face of huge job losses in Scotland’s energy sector. Black is the new green. Oil and gas companies are no longer climate pariahs. It was of course Nicola Sturgeon back in 2021 who made Scotland the first country in the world to declare a ‘climate emergency’. We cannot

Ross Clark

The truth about pensioners and tax

The Tories’ ‘Triple Lock Plus’ is a pretty blatant attempt to secure the votes of a demographic group which is more inclined to vote Conservative than any other. That much is clear. The party’s proposal would give pensioners a high personal tax allowance to spare them from having to pay income tax as the state pension rises faster than either inflation or average earnings. If the government wants to spare pensioners from having to pay income tax it could, of course, raise the income tax threshold for everyone. But instead, while pensioners are spared tax, the personal tax allowance for working-age people is due to be frozen for another four

Steerpike

Labour takes down Tory attack TikTok video

Another day, another gaffe. Only this time it’s the Labour party in the firing line, not so long after the launch of its brand new TikTok account. It has been live for all of four days and Starmer’s army has been busy getting to work on their latest form of social media self-promotion — posting 30 videos, gathering 75,900 followers and amassing 1.5 million likes. But it’s not all been plain sailing for the Sir Keir’s lefty lot. Labour’s comms team seems to have gotten a little ahead of itself in its rush to take the platform by storm and there are concerns the party may have, er, broken some