Politics

Read about the latest UK political news, views and analysis.

Friday

21 Jul 2023

Seven graphs that show the challenge for the Tories at the election

The Tories have avoided total wipeout in last night’s triple by-election. Rishi Sunak dodged the embarrassment of becoming the first Prime Minister in 50 years to lose three by-elections in a single day. While the Lib Dems won Somerton and Frome and Labour secured victory in Selby and Ainsty, the Conservative candidate in Uxbridge, Steve Tuckwell, managed to hold onto Boris Johnson’s old seat with a much reduced majority of 495 votes. The result in Selby and Ainsty meanwhile, where Labour candidate Keir Mather took the seat, was the biggest majority the Labour party has ever overturned in a by-election: the Tories had previously held the seat with a majority of

James Heale

Sunak narrowly avoids triple by-election defeat

12 min listen

There was something for everyone in the by-elections with each of the three big parties getting a seat. The Tories lost Somerton and Frome to the Lib Dems and Selby and Ainsty to Labour but did narrowly cling on in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, albeit with a reduced majority of just 495 votes. James Heale unpacks the results with Fraser Nelson and Katy Balls. Produced by Oscar Edmondson.

Patrick O’Flynn

A nagging doubt about Keir Starmer has been exposed

‘One out of three ain’t bad’ isn’t a saying you hear often. Yet avoiding a clean sweep of by-election defeats overnight will surely have Rishi Sunak breathing a sigh of relief. Holding on in Boris Johnson’s old seat of Uxbridge & South Ruislip not only means the Tories have exceeded the rock-bottom expectations of the pundit class, but there is an unmistakeable further intuition hanging in the air: had Johnson not lost his courage and instead decided he would trust his electors and stand in a by-election under the recall process, then he surely could this morning be the man who had pulled off an unlikely triumph. And imagine how

Ross Clark

Has Britain avoided falling into recession?

Earlier in the week, the stock market responded very positively to news that inflation had come out a little lower than expected (even though, at 7.9 per cent, it is still far ahead of where most forecasters, from the vantage point of the beginning of 2023, would have expected it to be by now). Markets have been left largely unmoved, however, by two pieces of positive news this morning: lower than expected public borrowing in June, and higher retail sales, also in June. The volume of sales was up 0.7 per cent in June compared with May. While that was, in part, due to the extra bank holiday in May, which

Nick Tyrone

Does the Somerton victory mark the return of the Lib Dems?

Set against the expectation of a triple by-election defeat, last night will be seen as cause for optimism by some Tories. Labour failing to take Uxbridge and Ruislip is an unexpected boost for Rishi Sunak – and a result that will be seized upon by Keir Starmer opponents, not least those in the Labour party. Given the Boris baggage and the national polling, this is a seat Labour should have taken and probably with a reasonable majority. However, there is still plenty to glean from yesterday that should concern the Tories. Losing a seat like Selby is alarming, particularly doing so to Labour by a margin of more than 4,000 votes.

Stephen Daisley

Tories shouldn’t deceive themselves over their Uxbridge win

Some Conservatives are going to take heart from the by-election results. They may have lost Somerset and Frome to the Liberal Democrats on a 29 per cent swing. Selby and Ainsty may have fallen to Labour, who overturned their biggest ever majority (20,137) at a by-election. But they held on in Boris Johnson’s former seat, Uxbridge and South Ruislip. By just 495 votes, mind you, but a win is a win. Labour is blaming its defeat on local opposition to Sadiq Khan’s Ulez policy. The lesson some Tories will take from this is that they must pivot to champion ordinary people, particularly motorists, over policies to limit carbon emissions. Put

Steerpike

Watch: Johnny Mercer attacks Labour ‘Inbetweeners’ MP

An enjoyable bit of by-election telly this morning. As political bigwigs trooped into the news studios to discuss last night’s results, Sky’s deputy political editor Sam Coates took the chance to ask Johnny Mercer what he made of Selby’s new MP Keir Mather. The ‘baby of the House’ is just 25 years old and is now the first MP born during the Blair government. Mercer though was not impressed by his new parliamentary colleague. ‘We don’t want parliament to become like the Inbetweeners‘ he claimed, pointing out that Mather had spent more time at Oxford University than in subsequent gainful employment. That argument found little favour with Labour’s Baroness Chapman

Tom Goodenough

Starmer hails ‘historic’ moment after Selby by-election victory

Labour has won the Selby and Ainsty by-election – overturning a majority of more than 20,000, the biggest it has ever overcome at a by-election. But in a surprise result, the Tories held on in Boris Johnson’s former Uxbridge and South Ruislip constituency by 495 votes following a recount. Elsewhere, Rishi Sunak’s party lost in the Somerton and Frome by-election. The Lib Dems reversed a Tory majority of 19,000 in a decisive victory which saw Ed Davey’s party secure a majority of more than 11,000 votes. Davey said the result shows the party is ‘firmly back’. While the results show the scale of the task ahead for Sunak, the Tory

Katy Balls

Sunak avoids triple by-election defeat after Tories hold Uxbridge

Rishi Sunak has narrowly avoided three by-election losses. Overnight, the Conservatives lost Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats, overturning a majority of 19,213 to lead by 11,008 votes, and Selby and Ainsty to Labour, with Keir Starmer’s party overturning its largest ever majority at a by-election in post-war history. However, the Tories managed to narrowly cling on in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, with a reduced majority of just 495 votes. It means today’s results are a mixed bag for Starmer and Sunak. As is often the case with by-elections, it is Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey who has the most to be happy about

Thursday

20 Jul 2023

Lloyd Evans

Roll up, roll up for Ian Blackford’s farewell tour

Ian Blackford, the SNP MP, is to stand down at the next election. And last night he gave an interview to Anand Menon of the think-tank UK In a Changing Europe. The mood was cosy, the questions as soft as marshmallows. Menon opened with the issue of independence and he allowed Blackford to change the subject from ‘process’ to ‘the kind of country Scotland will be’. Blackford stated correctly that Scotland’s status as England’s poorer neighbour encourages the best and brightest Scots to move south. And he quoted a statistic suggesting that England has benefited from Scottish inward migration in every decade since the 1850s. He outlined a solution that

William Moore

Road rage: the great motorist rebellion has begun

38 min listen

This week: In his cover piece for the magazine Ross Clark writes about ‘the war on motorists’. He argues that the backlash against London Mayor Sadiq Khan’s expansion of Ulez is just the beginning, as motorists – and Labour MPs – prepare to revolt. He joins the podcast alongside Ben Clatworthy, transport correspondent at the Times, to discuss whether the Ulez expansion is just a money-grab. (01:11). Also this week: In his piece for The Spectator, journalist Ian Williams compares both Labour and Conservative policy on China. He says that Labour is gearing up to take a much more hawkish stance on China. He is joined by Charles Parton, senior associate fellow at

Geoff Hill

Putin has escaped his South African dilemma

As a founding member of the International Criminal Court, South Africa has an obligation to arrest Vladimir Putin should he ever step foot in the country. This posed a problem for Pretoria, given the Russian leader was due to attend a meeting of the Brics trading group in Johannesburg next month. No longer. President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Wednesday that Mr Putin would be staying home. Long-range warheads landing on Jo’burg, Durban and Cape Town would soon have shortened Brics to Bric The International Criminal Court has accused him of war crimes in Crimea, especially over the treatment of children, and has issued a warrant to all member states. Pretoria has been neutral on the war in

Lisa Haseldine

Prigozhin reappears for first time since failed Wagner coup

Nearly four weeks on from his failed coup, Evgeniy Prigozhin, leader of the Wagner group, has finally resurfaced in public. A video published on the social media app Telegram shows the mercenary chief apparently greeting newly–arrived fighters at a military camp in Belarus and praising them for their efforts on the front line in Ukraine. Due to the near-darkness in which the footage was taken, only Prigozhin’s silhouette is visible; nevertheless, his distinctive bald head, faintly illuminated by the setting sun, and his voice make him confidently identifiable. It appears the video was taken in recent days at a military camp identified by some as the one at Osipovichy in the eastern Mogilev region.

Stephen Daisley

The liberal case for Nigel Farage

After ‘it’s not happening’, ‘it may be happening, but for different reasons’, and ‘would it be such a bad thing if it was happening?’, we have finally arrived at the ‘it’s happening and it’s a good thing’ stage of the Nigel Farage banking story. This now-familiar pattern of motivated reasoning was first identified by conservative writer Rod Dreher in his law of merited impossibility, which described how progressives could simultaneously hold the views that gay marriage wouldn’t diminish religious liberty and that the religious liberty of opponents of gay marriage ought to be diminished. As Dreher put it: ‘It will never happen, and when it does, you bigots will deserve it.’ Freedom

Ross Clark

Striking consultants aren’t likely to get sympathy

Today and tomorrow’s strike by NHS consultants underlines how industrial action has become the preserve of the well-paid. The consultants appealing for public sympathy were, according to NHS figures, paid a mean basic salary of more than £97,000 in the year to March. On top of this they received mean overtime and bonus payments of close to £30,000, bringing their total mean earnings to more than £127,000. Yet not all of these were working full-time. The mean basic salary for full-time staff was more than £105,000. And of course, on top of this they have been offered a pay rise of 6 per cent – which they have rejected. The

Steerpike

Do the public really support Mick Lynch’s rail strikes?

Britain is once again stuck at a red signal – with yet another set of rail strikes bringing the country’s trains to a halt today. The key question is whether most commuters will even notice the strikes are on, considering the dire state of the railway network. Still, at least one person is in a chipper mood on the picket line: the RMT’s resident harbinger of joy, Mick Lynch. The union boss told Sky News from outside Euston station that the public had shown the strikers ‘massive support this week’ as part of the campaign to keep ticket offices open, adding that ‘our dispute is resonating with not just with RMT

Damian Reilly

Nigel Farage, NatWest, and the sinister rise of corporate ‘purpose’

The plot is thickening. If it turns out NatWest CEO Alison Rose was the source for BBC business editor Simon Jack’s scoop that private bank Coutts, part of the NatWest Group, rejected Nigel Farage as a customer not because of his political views but for a supposed lack of funds, then it’s hard to see how she will last in her job to the end of the week. According to the Daily Telegraph, Rose sat next to Jack at a charity dinner the night before he published his story. At the time of writing, neither had responded to questions about what they’d discussed. Certainly, the Coutts dossier that Farage has

Steerpike

Defence Select Committee move against Tobias Ellwood

Oh dear. It seems that Tobias Ellwood has slipped up one too many times. On Monday night he posted a video declaring that Afghanistan under the Taliban has become a ‘country transformed’ with ‘security vastly improved, ‘corruption reduced’, the ‘opium trade ended’. An immediate outcry followed, with a furious Mark Francois raising the matter at PMQs on Wednesday. Ellwood apologised on Piers Morgan’s TalkTV show and subsequently deleted the video but the damage was done. Four members of the Defence Select Committee – Kevan Jones, Mark Francois, Derek Twigg and Richard Drax – have now tabled and published a confidence motion in him, meaning a vote will take place in

John Oxley

Britain has a Martin Lewis problem

Martin Lewis, the Money Saving Expert, has become the sage of the cost-of-living crisis. He is closing in on national treasure status, dispensing helpful advice on TV and online to help people avoid rip-off charges and ensure they are getting the benefits they are entitled to. This is all good work, but as the housing campaigner Anya Martin notes, Lewis, and resources like him, rarely focus on increasing earnings. Watching the similarly themed American show How to Get Rich on Netflix, the contrast is noticeable. The expert here, an American named Ramit Sethi, does all the Lewis-style tricks to save pennies here and there – but also encourages his subjects to leverage their

Mark Galeotti

Will MI6’s Russian recruitment drive work?

Sir Richard Moore, head of the Secret Intelligence Service – MI6 – follows the tradition of only giving one public address a year, so it is inevitably scrutinised carefully for signs and portents. His speech at the UK embassy in Prague, inviting Russians to spy for Britain, required no particular reading between the lines. After a suitable preamble noting Britain’s strong relationship with the Czech Republic, he pivoted from Moscow’s brutal suppression of the liberal Prague Spring in 1968 to Soviets, the bravest of whom, seeing ‘the moral travesty of what was being done…acted on their convictions by throwing in their lot with us, as partners for freedom.’ This was

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