Politics Archives

Monday

3 Apr 2023

By reducing oil production, Opec is only helping Russia

Just when we thought inflationary forces were softening, the price of crude oil has shot up sharply today in response to an announcement by Opec that it will try to reduce production. A barrel of Brent crude, which touched $120 last summer before falling back to $75 last month, reached $85 at one point today. Some analysts expect it to hit $100. Given that the benign forecasts for inflation which shaped Jeremy Hunt’s budget were predicated on a falling oil price, has the case for economic recovery now collapsed? Unfortunately, in spite of the US’s drive towards energy independence in recent years, the world remains depressingly reliant on Opec for

Ian Williams

What would be the real cost of defending Taiwan?

It’s 2026 and China begins its invasion of Taiwan with an intense missile bombardment that in a few hours destroys most of the island’s navy and air force. The Chinese navy begins ferrying its main invasion force of tens of thousands of soldiers and equipment across the Taiwan Strait. But all is not lost. US submarines, bombers, and fighter jets, reinforced by Japan’s Self-Defense Forces, rapidly cripple the Chinese fleet. The People’s Liberation Army is defeated, and communist party rule in China destabilised, but victory for the US and its allies comes at an enormous cost. Chinese missiles destroy US bases in Japan and Guam; the US loses dozens of

Ross Clark

Scotland is making education strikes in England worse

If anyone thought that the public sector strikes were fading out, this week marks a resurgence, with Passport Office staff striking for five weeks – apparently on behalf of other civil servants whose absence might be less noticed – along with the National Education Union (NEU). The education union voted by a margin of 98 to 2 per cent for two days’ strikes on 27 April and 2 May. Pleas to save children further disruption to their education following months of school closures during Covid-19 appear to have fallen on deaf ears. The NEU vote shows one thing which has been little commented upon during this round of strikes: the

Steerpike

A brief history of Sir Keir Starmer’s trans flip-flopping

Where public opinion goes, Sir Keir follows. Tony Benn used to divide politicians into two categories: the Signposts and the Weathercocks, with the Labour leader falling decidedly into the latter group. As public attitudes on women-only spaces and elite sport have hardened in recent years, the Leader of the Opposition has slowly, painfully followed suit, often to the chagrin of Labour’s LGBT+ factions. Below is a timeline of Sir Keir’s shifting stance over the past three years of his leadership… November 2020 – Five months after being elected leader, Starmer posts on Facebook that ‘Trans rights are human rights, and your fight is our fight too. The Labour Party stands

Steerpike

Watch: Jacinda Ardern’s successor struggles to define a woman

Is Labour’s state of confusion about sex and gender going global? Labour leader Keir Starmer was widely mocked this weekend when he was asked by the Sunday Times to define a woman, and claimed that 99.9 per cent of women don’t have a penis – which if nothing else, rather contradicted his previous assertion that it was wrong to say that only women have a cervix. Now though his gender vacillation appears to be causing problems all the way over in New Zealand for Jacinda Ardern’s successor as Prime Minister, the Labour politician Chris Hipkins. Asked in a press conference how he and his government would define a woman – in

Steerpike

Now Humza’s henchman takes aim at Rod Liddle

There’s no shortage of problems in Humza Yousaf’s in-tray as he gets his feet under the desk at Bute House. Striking workers, anaemic growth, a crumbling NHS: there’s plenty to occupy Yousaf and his new cabinet of old faces. So Mr S was therefore surprised that one minister clearly has enough time to moonlight as a media critic too. Step forward, Paul McLennan MSP, the who occupies the housing brief – a job with no end of issues. But McLennan seems to not be fulfilled by his duties in parliament and government. For the East Lothian ex-councillor always finds time to criticise those journalists whose writings he feels are insufficiently

Patrick O’Flynn

Britain deserves better than Keir Starmer’s opportunism

A few weeks ago, Keir Starmer was told by his advisers that he would have to U-turn on his radical stance on trans rights or he would not win the next general election. One senior Labour source told the Times back then: ‘If Keir is still being asked by the time the election campaign begins what a woman is, then he’s lost on day one. Scotland is a warning to him… self-ID is not going to happen under a Labour government.’ So it was only a matter of time before Starmer’s support for gender self-ID went the way of many of his other principled stances such as support for free

Fredrik Erixon

Why Sanna Marin lost Finland’s election

A journalist and observer of Finnish politics once said there is one headline that works for every Finnish election: ‘Finland elects new government, nothing will change’. Few prime ministers have survived longer than one term in the Arctic nation. Just as day becomes night and that spring follows on winter, the rhythm of the country’s elections has been to hand victory to the main opposition party – depending on which of them that was outside the last ruling coalition. Finland’s major parties are all centrist and pragmatic, and the difference between the left and the right is hard to detect. Even the populist Finns party feels tidy and well-behaved. With

Sunday

2 Apr 2023

Ian Williams

It’s time for a reckoning with Chinese big tech

It has been a bumpy week for China’s beleaguered technology giants. They are under increasing scrutiny overseas, and the communist party continues to tighten the screws on them at home. In many ways they are also their own worst enemies. The UK has become the latest government to ban the Chinese-owned TikTok from government devices over security concerns. Parliament has also banned the app from its network. This follows similar bans from the European Union and 11 countries, including France, New Zealand, Denmark and the US. Western lawmakers are unconvinced by TikTok’s often cack-handed attempts to distance itself from its Chinese parent, ByteDance, and that company’s obligations to the Chinese

Joe Bedell-Brill

Sunday shows round-up: fear of ‘cultural sensitivities’ to blame for grooming scandal, says Braverman

Refugees shot at by Rwandan police in 2018 Home Secretary Suella Braverman faced up to Laura Kuenssberg this morning, keen to talk again about her ‘dream’ of successfully implementing the Rwanda immigration policy. Kuenssberg surprised her with a report of a 2018 incident in which refugees protesting in Rwanda over food rations were shot at and killed by police. She asked Braverman if this suggested Rwanda might not be a safe destination: Braverman – overall migration numbers should come down Kuenssberg also spoke to Braverman about lawful immigration. Braverman claimed she stood by her party’s manifesto principle of reducing the overall number of migrants, although she was evasive when pressed

George Magnus

Britain’s new trade deal is about more than GDP

With the announcement this week confirming the UK’s accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP), the British government has concluded its most important trade agreement since leaving the EU. It is joining a modern free trade area (FTA) comprising 11 Pacific Rim countries located in the most dynamic part of the world, measured by GDP growth, and accounting for about 11 per cent of world output. Or just over 14 per cent with the UK included. Curiously though, the trade and economic benefits which the UK might derive are likely to be pretty meagre. The real story in the UK’s additional tilt into Asia is potentially

Iain Macwhirter

Humza Yousaf is the Scottish Jeremy Corbyn

As he took office last week commentators, myself included, compared the new First Minister Humza Yousaf to Liz Truss, the chaotic, unpopular and short-lived former leader of the Conservative Party. Yousaf is similarly unpopular with voters, has a record of serial ministerial failure and, like Truss, has surrounded himself with a cabinet of cronies. Nor is Yousaf expected to linger very long in Bute House. Right on cue, the first poll since Humza’s installation as FM shows the SNP lead over Labour cut to 6 per cent – enough for the nationalists to lose 18 seats in next year’s general election. However, now we have seen the First Minister’s priorities after his first week

Quinn Slobodian

Dominic Cummings understands Singapore. The Tories still don’t

I’ve read Kwasi Kwarteng’s surprisingly positive review of my book, Crack-Up Capitalism. Although it was unexpected to see someone from the libertarian corner being so enthusiastic about what is clearly a critical book, the experience was not new. After my previous book, Globalists: The End of Empire and the Birth of Neoliberalism, was published in 2018, I was startled to find Deirdre McCloskey, a leading classical liberal historian, praising the book as a manual for ‘keeping a liberalism which has made us rich and free.’ Globalists explained how neoliberals wanted to keep decision-making from democratic electorates. I took McCloskey’s praise as a validation of my core thesis. If it’s bracing to see a neoliberal academic

Saturday

1 Apr 2023

Steerpike

Is Kate Forbes undermining Humza Yousaf already?

It’s less than a week since Humza Yousaf triumphed in the SNP leadership election by less than 2,500 votes and already his tactical wizardry is bearing fruit. Yousaf’s first decision on taking at Bute House was to humiliate Kate Forbes, the woman who took on and almost defeated the entire party machine, by offering her the job of Rural Affairs – a significant demotion from Finance Secretary. She instead quit the government with her replacement, Shona Robison, rubbing salt in the wound by suggesting Forbes told Yousaf that she wanted to spend more time with her family. Such suggestions have clearly irked Forbes, who has come out fighting in an

Natasha Feroze

Have US-UK relations improved with Rishi Sunak?

10 min listen

Natasha Feroze speaks to Katy Balls and Freddy Gray about Biden’s upcoming visit to the UK. Given the President’s proud Irish roots, how much will he try throw his weight around on Brexit? And how worried are the Democrats about Trump’s indictment?

Edward Howell

Is North Korea about to test another nuke?

North Korea’s spring has started with a bang. The United States and South Korea have staged their largest joint military exercises in five years, and Pyongyang’s rhetoric is becoming more aggressive. Kim Jong Un has warned that the US and South Korea would ‘plunge into despair’ for holding the drills, as he fired two missiles into the sea between the Korean Peninsula and Japan. Kim’s regime has already fired more than 20 missiles this year, launching increasingly ambitious and sophisticated ballistic and cruise missiles. Earlier this week, North Korean state media proudly claimed that the regime had developed tactical nuclear weapons for the first time. Photographs showed Kim inspecting what looked like miniaturised nuclear warheads that

Amra Sabic-El-Rayess

Putin is copying the propaganda playbook of Serbian war criminals

A year ago, Ukrainian soldiers discovered evidence of the Bucha massacre in which Russian forces slaughtered hundreds of Ukrainians in cold blood. Far from owning up to its crimes, Russia has spent the past 12 months trying to spin the massacre as a Western-inspired conspiracy.  The Kremlin said the allegations are a ‘monstrous forgery’ aimed at denigrating the Russian army. This attempt to whitewash the truth has disturbing parallels with the cover up of atrocities that occurred in my home country, Bosnia, during the 1990s. There are chilling links between today’s war crimes denialism by Russia and the genocide denialism that continues in Bosnia to this day, over the murder of more than

Kate Andrews

For once, there’s a battle of ideas happening in the Tory party

Yesterday’s announcement that the UK has joined the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership brought with it a unique sense of unity within the Conservative party, with very different Tory factions praising the new trade bloc. But yesterday is behind us. Now it’s back to business as usual. Today ushers in the corporation tax hikes that Rishi Sunak first announced as chancellor back in 2021. The rise – from 19 per cent to 25 per cent for the largest companies – is, if anything, more divisive today than it was two years ago, as the decision was fiercely debated during the leadership election last year and then scrapped by Liz Truss

Ed Balls

After 50 years: where next for VAT?

What is the appropriate act to mark the fiftieth anniversary of Value Added Tax in the UK? Are we celebrating? Surely not. Are we mourning? If only. But we should at least pause and reflect on the central role that VAT has played in our recent economic history. The third largest source of tax revenue, forecast to deliver over £160 billion to the Exchequer this year, VAT has always been a cash-cow, but never without complaint. Most of the debates surrounding its introduction in 1973 focused simply on who and what should remain outside its claws. If you want an indication of what a different world this was, just look

Katy Balls

Katy Balls, Lisa Haseldine and Graeme Thomson

20 min listen

This week: Katy Balls discusses why Humza Yousaf is the Union’s best hope (01:00), Lisa Haseldine reads her interview with former Georgian defence minister David Kezerashvili (07:00), and Graeme Thomson asks whether supergroups are really that super (13:54). Produced and presented by Oscar Edmondson.