Economy

If you want a laugh, I recommend an article which appeared in the March 1998 issue of Scientific American, ‘The End of Cheap Oil’. In it, oil geologists Colin J Campbell and Jean H Laherrere used terribly clever models to tell us that global oil production would peak around 2004-05, after which we would be trying to rely on an ever-dwindling, ever more expensive supply of oil, with huge consequences for the global economy. Campbell was so sure of his thesis that three years later he formed the Association for the Study of Peak Oil, coining a new term which would be thrown about over the next couple of decades.

When Dame Alison Rose was a frontrunner for chief executive of NatWest in 2019, I described her as ‘sensible’ and ‘unspun’ and said I hoped she’d get the job. That view was based partly on personal impression and partly on a prejudice of mine, expressed consistently since the 2008 crisis, that women often make better senior bankers than men, being less prone to macho risk-taking. Rose has now yielded to political pressure and resigned over her role in the false reporting of the decision to ‘exit’ Nigel Farage as a customer of NatWest’s subsidiary, Coutts. But this column has never been in the business of following the baying crowd in

Not for the first time in his colourful life, the perennial rebel Nigel Farage has the establishment on the run. This time it is the financial establishment and its media allies. The former Ukip leader has already garnered apologies over conduct or coverage from NatWest, which owns Coutts bank, the high-profile podcaster and former BBC man Jon Sopel, the BBC’s business editor Simon Jack and the chief executive of BBC News Deborah Turness. Farage is currently circling NatWest chief executive Dame Alison Rose in the manner of a hungry shark who has scented blood in the water. Not his, but hers. Dame Alison appears to be Farage’s prime suspect in

It will trash the brand. It will alienate its core users. And relaunching and rebranding a failing business almost never works. As Elon Musk drops the Twitter blue bird and swaps it for an X, we will hear plenty of arguments about why the world’s second richest man has made another critical commercial mistake. In fairness, some of them have a point. Yet Musk’s critics are making a mistake by missing the real purpose of the new name. X only exists to kill off Twitter. The rebrand was announced in a typically haphazard way. As of today, Twitter will be known simply as X. It was Musk’s boldest move yet

Two by-election defeats have made it a miserable morning for the Tories, even if they did manage to cling on in Uxbridge. But they’ve had better-than-expected news on another front. This morning’s update from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) reveals that public sector net borrowing has come in lower than what was forecast at the March Budget: £18.5 billion in June, compared to the Office for Budget Responsibility’s (OBR) prediction of £21.1 billion. Borrowing last month was £0.4 billion less than the year before, while interest payments on government debt saw a huge drop: from £20 billion last June down to £12.5 billion this June. Don’t be fooled: these are still

Today and tomorrow’s strike by NHS consultants underlines how industrial action has become the preserve of the well-paid. The consultants appealing for public sympathy were, according to NHS figures, paid a mean basic salary of more than £97,000 in the year to March. On top of this they received mean overtime and bonus payments of close to £30,000, bringing their total mean earnings to more than £127,000. Yet not all of these were working full-time. The mean basic salary for full-time staff was more than £105,000. And of course, on top of this they have been offered a pay rise of 6 per cent – which they have rejected. The

Nigel Farage has been cancelled by his bank because their reputation risk committee doesn’t approve of his political views and has branded him a ‘chancer’ and ‘grifter’. This matters to him because, having been cancelled by one bank, it is almost impossible to get an account with another – you are obliged upon opening a new account to reveal if you have ever been turned down or thrown out of a bank before.  Reputation risk has become all the rage in recent years as companies, governments and individuals scramble to protect themselves from the fate suffered by trial by media and powerful regulators. PR firms and management consultancies charge high fees to

It’s been more than two days since Keir Starmer told the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg that Labour would keep the two-child benefit cap, yet the party seems no closer to finding resolution on the issue. The pushback within the party has been intense, with plenty of people (including, reportedly, members of the shadow cabinet) asking how the opposition leader can keep a benefits cap that he once railed against. But Starmer isn’t budging. Speaking on a conference stage with former prime minister Tony Blair this evening, Starmer insisted this wasn’t an issue of changing hearts, but rather a changing set of circumstances. Speaking about spending commitments more generally, Starmer noted that:

I have been playing a game with myself recently: asking just what would it take for me to vote Labour at the next election? The gossip out of No. 10 has answered it for me: if, as rumoured, the Prime Minister toys with the idea of abolishing inheritance tax – at a time when the government has jacked up tax for many millions of workers through fiscal drag and lowering the 45 pence tax threshold – then suddenly Keir Starmer is going to look a relatively attractive option. Yes, I really would rather have a PM who thinks a woman can have a penis, than I would a party that

That Rishi Sunak chose to announce his decision to give public sector workers a 5 to 7 per cent pay rise with a press conference tells you everything you need to know. There is no requirement for him to be anywhere near a pay announcement: indeed, it was chief secretary to the Treasury John Glen who made the statement in the Commons. But Sunak clearly thinks there is a big political win here for him in dealing with the ongoing strikes. Sunak confirmed in his opening statement that ‘we are accepting the headline recommendations of the Pay Review bodies in full but we will not fund them by borrowing more,