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John Keiger

A dual crisis is looming for France

Financial crises are often linked to a political crisis. On 8 September, the French government will submit itself to a vote of confidence – which, by all accounts, it will lose. At issue is France’s parlous financial state, which a minority French government seeks to address. This week, French 30-year bond yields reached levels unseen since the Greek debt crisis in 2011, while the 10-year yield has surpassed present-day Greece’s.  France’s economy minister was quick to warn that France’s lamentable financial position could leave it facing an IMF bailout. This was intended to frighten MPs ahead of the vote rather than reflect reality. Greece was borrowing at near 30 per

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Ross Clark

No, Ed Miliband: zonal pricing won’t cut energy bills

Is Ed Miliband going to announce a move towards a zonal electricity market, where wholesale prices would vary between regions of Britain? It would appear to be on cards following the Energy and Climate Secretary’s interview on the Today programme in which he said he was considering the idea. Miliband’s apparent support for the plan follows intense lobbying by Greg Jackson, CEO of Octopus Energy as well as support from the National Energy System Operator (NESO), the new government-owned company which oversees the grid. However, zonal pricing is bitterly opposed by others in the energy industry, including Chris O’Shea, the generously-moustached CEO of Centrica, and Dale Vince, CEO of Electrocity

Ross Clark

Will inflation cause a house price crash?

Just what would finally bring the seemingly endless boom in house prices to a halt? A global banking crisis which resulted in the collapse of several large institutions plus others having to be bailed out by the government? A pandemic which cost the lives of over 100,000 people in Britain, led to the enforced closure of most shops and contracted the UK economy by nearly 20 per cent in a year? Had you raised either scenario when the market was racing ahead in the mid-2000s there would have been a general assumption that yes, either would have been fatal, leading to a house price crash. Sure enough, the first of these

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Why our MPs deserve a pay rise

Are MPs underpaid? Yes, according to Sir Peter Bottomley, who declared that life on an MP’s salary of £82,000 can be ‘really grim’. In saying so, Bottomley succeeded in uniting his fellow MPs – who would rather not have to deal with a further round of anger at their pay and conditions – and the general public – who resent having to pay for their elected lords and masters in the first place. But the furious backlash doesn’t mean Bottomley isn’t right. In Parliament, as anywhere else, you get what you pay for. If we want a better class of MP, it’s time to splash the cash. Not everyone sees it this way, of

Kate Andrews

Sajid Javid is right to make the NHS more accountable

The health secretary has announced more money for the National Health Service. It’s a story we’ve heard time and time again – but this time the details are different. Sajid Javid has committed an additional £250 million for GP health practices to assist them in expanding their hours and upping the number of face-to-face appointments they offer. In-person appointments plummeted during lockdown and have never recovered: they are now hovering around 60 per cent, compared to 80 per cent pre-pandemic. So what’s new? In short, the money comes with more accountability. A league table is being created to rank surgeries on how many in-person appointments they offer. Patients will also

James Forsyth

The legacy of Covid: a much bigger state

Covid transformed the role of the state. During the pandemic, the government did things it would never normally even contemplate. At the same time as it restricted civil liberties, it intervened in the economy to an extent never before seen in peacetime. Through the furlough scheme, close to £70 billion was spent on paying people’s wages. Other government economic interventions seem minor in comparison. What is a few hundred million here and there when the state has been spending billions so regularly? History suggests that when the state expands in a crisis, it doesn’t revert to its pre-crisis level once the emergency is over. The second world war led to

Martin Vander Weyer

Why we should all start hoarding cash and loo rolls

If there’s anyone in Britain who knows how to keep grocery shelves stacked, it’s former Tesco chief executive Sir Dave Lewis, who has been named as Downing Street’s ‘supply chain tsar’. Application of Tesco’s mastery of logistics and fierce discipline on suppliers should keep delivery trucks moving, so long as they have drivers. But even Lewis won’t be able to avert the pre-Christmas surge of panic-buying which I’m told Cabinet Office planners fear — especially if it’s combined with a major outage in the banking system. Last week’s Facebook crash was a warning that blank screens are only a couple of burned-out circuits or a cyberhacker’s half-hour away. And if

Brexit has ended Thatcherism. And about time, too

A Conservative government is raising taxes to fund the NHS and telling business to pay its workers more. The world is upside down, and classical liberals are furious. Steve Baker, one of those MPs, tweeted a picture of a pile of books including Hayek, Popper and Von Mises and said ‘This is what we believe’, reminding us of a time when Conservatives sought to shrink the government, not grow it. Until recently, most of us thought Margaret Thatcher and Conservatism were synonymous. We were wrong. While Hayek, Popper and Von Mises are definitely part of the conservative canon, and classical liberals part of the family, they dominated the right at

Kate Andrews

Is the economic recovery still on track?

Compared with July, August’s GDP boost looks much healthier — but that’s not saying much. Originally thought to have stagnated at 0.1 per cent, the economy in July actually shrank by 0.1 per cent, according to the latest update from the Office for National Statistics. If inflationary pressures continue to surge, the Bank may have no choice but to act Still, August’s GDP increase of 0.4 per cent puts the economy back on the upwards trajectory, now estimated to sit 0.8 per cent below pre-pandemic levels. Despite so-called ‘freedom day’ arriving halfway through July, people continued to socially distance in order to avoid being mandated back into their homes. A

Why is British Airways banning ‘ladies and gentlemen’?

British Airways is dropping ‘ladies and gentlemen’ from its announcements. In the name of diversity and inclusion, the airline has instructed staff to use a more ‘gender neutral’ salutation. You might think that after 18 months of turbulence, BA has more important things to worry about. In spring and summer last year the company was forced to cut 10,000 jobs, representing a third of its workforce, after Covid grounded most of its aircraft. The airline was the biggest user of the furlough scheme, claiming over £10 million in June this year alone. You might think that after 18 months of turbulence, BA has more important things to worry about Nonetheless,

Kate Andrews

The good and bad news about Britain’s labour market

Now that the Chancellor’s furlough scheme has come to an end, are employers rushing to lay off those workers whose wages have been paid, at least in part, by the government?  The good news for Rishi Sunak – and the taxpayer, who footed the bill for this multi-billion pound scheme – is that the early evidence suggests they are not: in the three months leading up to August, the headline unemployment rate dipped again. It is now down to 4.5 per cent, having peaked just over five per cent last winter. The picture in the labour market isn’t necessarily all rosy Figures from the Office for National Statistics will still take several months

Will the National Insurance hike weaken the Union?

Given the enormous power that Conservative leaders wield within the party, it is not surprising that the party should come to take on the character of its leaders. In the case of Boris Johnson, it is his protean quality that seems to have rubbed off. Where a previous leader might have had a policy agenda or ideology, today’s Tories have cheery slogans which can mean almost anything. Thus in the course of half a dozen recent Tory conference events one will have heard at least that many different definitions of ‘levelling up’, while the big corporate lobbies and third sector groups insist that whatever they normally talk about is absolutely essential

Kate Andrews

A global corporation tax is a terrible mistake

International cooperation is alive and well – at least when it comes to raising taxes. One hundred and thirty six countries have now signed up to a global minimum corporation tax of 15 per cent, proposed by G7 countries in June and pushed heavily by the UK Treasury. This is another step forward for what is thought to be the biggest overhaul to the international tax system in a century. The installation of a corporate tax floor is part of a comprehensive effort to reform how multinational companies are taxed: that is, to more precisely target where profits are being made (instead of where products are being created). ​​Firms with

Ross Clark

Is Britain’s economy being starved of talent?

How is the Prime Minister’s bid to turn Britain into a high-wage economy progressing? It couldn’t be going better just at the moment, to judge by a survey by IHS Markit for KPMG and the Recruitment and Employment Confederation. In September – data was collected between the 13 and 24 September – there was a sharp rise in hiring, while starting salaries were rising at their fastest pace in the 24 years in which the survey has been undertaken. The number of permanent as well as temporary appointments was high, although the latter fell back from a record high in August. The survey suggests that the jobs market turned in

Kate Andrews

Has an unemployment crisis been avoided?

Rishi Sunak always said furlough wouldn’t save every job, especially as the pandemic changed the way we live and spend. Now that the scheme – which paid the salaries of millions of workers across the UK – has come to an end, was Sunak right? Early evidence suggests businesses are bringing their employees back to work, either into their old jobs or repurposing them into new roles. According to the BBC, the 31 companies that took at least £1 million of furlough money last month (including airlines, which are still only running around half as many flights as in 2019) aren’t yet planning on making mass redundancies – even though the scheme has

James Kirkup

Does Sunak care about net zero?

The biggest story of the Tory conference wasn’t about a gaffe or a controversial statement. It was about something that wasn’t said, and the person who didn’t say it. Rishi Sunak’s silence on net zero is a big deal, as the next few weeks will prove. The Chancellor didn’t mention net zero in his conference speech. So what, you might ask? After all, it’s an environmental thing and he’s Chancellor, right? No. net zero is an economic story, and a big one. It’s about growth, investment, public spending, tax and jobs. According to Sunak’s Treasury: This will be a collective effort, requiring changes from households, businesses and government. It will

Martin Vander Weyer

Why stamp duty doesn’t add up

‘Blame it all on business’ was the Tory strategists’ answer to petrol queues and the risk of a no-turkey Christmas that threatened to distract the party-conference faithful from adulation of the Prime Minister. As spin, it might have been shocking if it wasn’t so familiar. But as an explanation of the supply crisis, the idea that business has been deaf to years of warnings that it could no longer rely on immigrant labour is hogwash, rivalled only by the proposition that spiralling wages will lead us to a fairer society — rather than contributing to a bout of uncontrolled inflation in which higher pay actually buys fewer goods because all

Ross Clark

Levelling up is Johnsonian cakeism

Until this morning, few people in Britain will have heard of the works of Wilfredo Pareto (1848-1923). Now, thanks to prime ministerial recommendation, his name is suddenly on everyone’s lips. Maybe he was even the inspiration for the name of Boris Johnson’s one-year-old son. Pareto, apparently, is the inspiration behind the whole idea of ‘levelling up’ But was it good idea to raise the memory of the Italian economist and political philosopher? Pareto, apparently, is the inspiration behind the whole idea of ‘levelling up’. The slogan, implied the PM, is derived from the concept of ‘Pareto Improvements’ — improvements, he said, which can raise the quality of one person’s existence

Robert Peston

How will Boris build his ‘high-wage, high-skill’ Britain?

There are a few problems with Boris Johnson’s big idea, namely that the sharp fall in the supply of unskilled and semi-skilled workers in the UK – triggered by Brexit, reinforced by Covid – will automatically lead businesses to invest, such that the UK’s long history of low productivity and low incomes will end on his watch. His vision, the philosophical heart of his speech to Tory conference this morning, is of a gleaming new ‘high wage, high skill, high productivity economy’ and that ‘we are not going back to the same old broken model with low wages, low growth, low skills and low productivity, all of it enabled and

It is hard to take Sunak’s jobs plan seriously

At some point, Rishi Sunak is going to need to pick a lane. There is only so long that the Chancellor can claim to believe that excessive borrowing is immoral while borrowing to such excess. His trick yesterday was to make all the right noises about restraint while unrolling a £500 million ‘plan for jobs’. Take away his earnest delivery and it’s still not clear whether he’s the boozer at the bar telling the world about the dangers of alcoholism, or the sensible friend ordering the taxi home. Let’s be fair. Sunak has had to deal with exceptional circumstances in the last 18 months, and is taking steps to cease

Kate Andrews

Sunak faces the free-marketeers

Rishi Sunak didn’t give too much away tonight when he spoke in the ‘ThinkTent’ at Conservative Party Conference. The Chancellor is known for being cautious with his words, and has been increasingly tight-lipped in the weeks leading up to his October Budget. But his presence at the fringe event was telling in itself. Sunak was only billed for one public fringe event this year, co-hosted by the Institute of Economic Affairs and Taxpayers’ Alliance. Their ‘ThinkTent’ boasts some of the most free-market, libertarian events you’ll find at conference: both organisations are strong advocates for a low-tax, smaller state. So, not necessarily an obvious place to find the Chancellor who has overseen record peacetime

Kate Andrews

Rishi takes inspiration from Thatcher – with one key difference

There are two Tory conferences simultaneously taking place in Manchester, within the same conference hall and inside the same fringe events. One is attended by elated activists, who are revelling in the December 2019 victory they never got to celebrate at party conference last year. The other is attended by increasingly agitated grass root faithfuls, who are up in arms about their party hiking taxes: especially the National Insurance rise on workers and employers, set to kick in next year. Unsurprisingly, most ministers are tapping into the mood of the first group. They hail the success of the party on fringe panels and at drinks receptions. Yesterday evening, Michael Gove