America

Iran’s attack on Pakistan shows how close the Middle East is to war

Iranian airstrikes on ‘militant bases’ in neighbouring Pakistan signal a dangerous and worrying escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Details of what unfolded remain sketchy, but Iranian media reported that the strikes were aimed at the bases of a Sunni militant group, Jaish al-Adl. The missiles and drones landed in the Balochistan province, which lies along the 600-mile border between the two countries. Both countries have long bickered over the activities of Baloch separatists and other militant groups in the border region. All it would take is one misunderstanding or false move to spark all-out war Pakistan’s foreign ministry said two children were killed and three others were injured. The Pakistani

What would Trump’s return mean for relations with China?

Over the past few days it has become clear that Donald Trump’s return to the US presidency has gone from being an outlier to an increasing likelihood. His landslide in the Iowa caucus yesterday only confirms this further. As the first term of Joe Biden’s presidency comes to a close, one of his achievements is no doubt the increased coordination amongst leading democracies when it comes to dealing with the challenge that China presents. Under Biden’s tenure the G7 has agreed to collectively fund an alternative to Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and work on de-risking their supply chains away from the country. Meanwhile, in the past year, the US and

The devastating cost of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan

The next twelve months will be dominated by elections, with polls expected in at least 64 countries. Of these, there are only a few that really matter in geopolitical terms. The US elections of course, especially if won by an isolationist Donald Trump (assuming he is allowed to run). India’s parliamentary elections in April will help steer the course of a superpower for the future. And in Europe, the rise of populist parties may well change the direction of the EU in the years to come. But perhaps the most consequential one has just happened this weekend, in Taiwan, where William Lai has just been elected president. There is significant

Freddy Gray

Everything is falling into place for Donald Trump

Vivek Ramaswamy, the impressive podcast guest who has spent the last few months pretending to be a serious Republican presidential candidate, has just suspended his campaign after winning eight per cent of the vote in the Iowa caucuses. ‘This entire campaign is about speaking the TRUTH,’ he said. ‘We did not achieve our goal tonight.’ He endorsed Donald Trump even though on Saturday Trump called him ‘sly’ and ‘deceitful’. No matter: it’s not as if any Ramaswamy supporters will be queuing up to vote for Nikki Haley any time soon. DeSantis and Haley have proved that you can spend an awful lot of money failing to beat Donald Trump The

Trump’s big Iowa win spells the end for Ron DeSantis

Until now, the person who won the Iowa caucus by the largest margin was Bob Dole back in 1988 – by 12 points. A ray of hope that the Nikki Haley contingent and the Ron DeSantis faction harboured was that even though Trump was likely to win, perhaps he wouldn’t win convincingly. An achievement they understood — history and Bob Dole be damned — to be 50 per cent of the vote. If he won less than that — by 40 per cent, say — they could claim that he won by a ‘disappointing’ result.  A writer for Vox, for example, wrote this: ‘If Trump underperforms polls — getting around 40 percent or lower, or having

How Ecuador became a narco state

Ecuador was once spared the worst of the narco-warfare and insurgencies that have plagued Latin America. No longer. The storming last week of a TV station in Guayaquil by gun-brandishing thugs showed how no one, and nowhere, is safe from the narco gangs who rule the streets. The latest chaos was unleashed after a major crime lord escaped from prison. José Adolfo ‘Fito’ Macías Villamar had been taunting authorities for months, even starring in a music video while ostensibly confined under heavy security. Now, he is on the loose.  In recent years, the murder rate has risen by 500 per cent as the once mostly-peaceful land has become a battleground for warring drug

Freddy Gray

Trump looks unstoppable in Iowa

The bitterly cold conditions in Iowa today have at least given journalists something to talk about. There’s a distinct lack of political drama, given everyone expects today’s Republican caucuses to be a blowout win for Donald Trump. The main questions of interest are: will Nikki Haley or Ron DeSantis finish second? And will Trump break Republican records and win more than 50 per cent of the vote? Given that polls suggest Trump voters are far more enthusiastic than the supporters of his rivals, the arctic temperatures may only give him a further advantage. The weather is also a handy metaphor for the frozen state of Republican politics: Haley and DeSantis’s

Jake Wallis Simons

Why the West should target Iran as well as the Houthis

Peace cannot always be won by peaceful means. This is a truth that is as tragic as it is perennial. When history forges an enemy that cannot be placated, the blind pursuit of ‘peace in our time’ only shores up an even more devastating conflict in the future. This lesson, learned so painfully by previous generations, has faded in the somnambulant years of postwar Britain. It is one that we are starting to remember. Today, the defence secretary Grant Shapps pledges 20,000 British personnel to take part in a major Nato exercise to prepare for a potential Russian invasion of Europe. His words are unvarnished. ‘We are in a new

When will Kamala Harris come clean?

The world has changed since Kamala Harris ran for president in 2019. The US has withdrawn from Afghanistan (a decision she supported), war rages in Ukraine (as western funding and materiel commitments face domestic opposition in the United States and the EU), and tensions remain high in the Middle East as conflict continues in Israel/Palestine, catalysed by Hamas’ attack on 7 October.  But for all the attention paid to the US presidential contest (set to have its first caucus vote next week in Iowa), and its implications for American foreign policy, little has been paid to vice-president Harris’ foreign policy ambitions. Given how much power the White House has to

Freddy Gray

Why Trump can’t be stopped

Donald Trump has dominated Republican politics for so long that it can be hard to remember the time when he did not. It’s easy to forget that at the beginning of 2016 he started the Republican primary process by losing the Iowa caucuses to Ted Cruz, his more conservative rival. ‘He stole it,’ Trump tweeted afterwards, graceful as ever in defeat. ‘The State of Iowa should disqualify Ted Cruz from the most recent election on the basis that he cheated – a total fraud!’ Trump went on to stun the world, of course, by winning the Republican nomination, then the White House. American politics would never be the same again.

Meet the women vying to be Trump’s running mate

‘Ibelieve President Trump will have a female vice-president,’ said Donald Trump’s former strategist Steve Bannon in a recent interview. He was echoing the thoughts of many of those close to the probable 2024 Republican nominee. Mr Trump himself has said that he likes ‘the concept’ of choosing a female VP. Happily for him, there is no shortage of Republican women auditioning for the role of best supporting actress. The second season of The Golden Bachelor is coming sooner than anticipated. Kari Lake, the former TV newscaster turned politician, won the Conservative Political Action Committee’s (CPAC) straw poll for the VP slot last spring. Lake demurred at the time, as she

Steerpike

Watch: Trump mocks Macron’s accent

Emmanuel Macron is facing something of a crisis at home: his prime minister has resigned and his party is trailing that of his fierce rival Marine Le Pen by up to ten points in the run-up to crunch European elections. But Macron’s troubles don’t stop there: his ‘friend’ Donald Trump has been busy on the campaign trail in the United States, mocking his old ally and imitating the French leader’s accent. During a rally in Iowa, Trump told the crowd what happened when he threatened to slap tariffs on French wine and champagne if France imposed duties on US tech giants: Trump told the crowd: ‘I said, ‘Emmanuel, how are

Julie Burchill

The unbearably smug spectacle of the Golden Globes

Does anybody actually watch televised Hollywood award shows anymore unless, like me, they’re being paid to? Until ‘The Incident’ at the 2022 Oscars between Will Smith and Chris Rock, the answer was clear; between 2014 and 2020, even the Academy Awards lost almost half their audience, which fell to 23 million. But in 2023, figures were up by a whopping 18 million as eager punters tuned in, perhaps hoping to see a spot of ‘bitch-slapping’ between Cate Blanchett and Michelle Yeoh. The Golden Globes, lacking the iconic oomph of the Oscars, has fared even worse, despite being a broader church in that they cover the year’s top televisual as well

What’s the truth about the US defence secretary’s mystery illness?

Questions are growing over who knew what, and when, about the hospitalisation of the American Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin, the most senior official in the chain of command between the president and the military. Austin was taken to hospital on New Year’s Day but the news was kept secret. Astonishingly, even president Joe Biden does not appear to have been told that Austin was unwell until last Thursday, four days after his admission to the Walter Reed National Medical Center in Maryland. Key figures in the Pentagon and members of Congress were also kept in the dark, and only informed on Friday. There have even been claims that senior members of his

George Floyd was no martyr

To write that George Floyd died is to take a position. The received belief is that he was murdered – a murder bigger, in its consequences, than any other crime for decades. Unlike the relatively muted protests against the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the streets of the world hosted men and women passionate in their denunciation of Minneapolis police officer Derek Chauvin, whose detention in May 2020 of Floyd by, apparently, kneeling on his neck for around ten minutes, had killed him.  Chauvin became a synecdoche for the perceived repressions of the state – any state, from South Africa to Germany, no matter how strongly committed to democratic governance and civil rights. In Melbourne, in

Freddy Gray

Biden’s bogus memorialisation of 6 January

It’s fright month in Joe Biden’s America, folks. Today, 5 January, the US President will travel to Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, to mark the third anniversary of the riot on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC on 6 January 2021. He would have done it on the day but the event had to be rescheduled due to an incoming storm. Biden also likes to rest on the weekends.  Still, near the spot where George Washington and his continental army survived the brutal Revolutionary War winter of 1777-78, the increasingly ethereal 46th president will endeavour to summon the tough ghosts of America’s founding. He will deliver yet another warning about the petrifying threat which

Brendan O’Neill

Harvard’s Claudine Gay isn’t a victim of racism

A month ago, Claudine Gay of Harvard University was obsessed with putting things into context. Asked at that now infamous Congressional hearing on campus anti-Semitism whether calling for a genocide of the Jews is a violation of Harvard’s code of conduct, Gay said it would depend on the context. Her remarks raised eyebrows worldwide. The idea that there are some contexts in which it might not be a violation of Harvard’s code of conduct to say ‘Kill all Jews’ made many wonder what the hell is going on at that university. Fast forward four weeks and now Gay seems content to do away with context completely. Consider her resignation letter

Lionel Shriver

Hell hath no fury like the left scorned

Over a leg of lamb, I joined five other expat Americans for Christmas. Our topic du jour was which faction in our homeland we were most afraid of. Revisiting that boisterous conversation appeals, because in this re-enactment, I’m the only one who gets to talk. With forbidding rapidity, one armchair assertion has gone from audacious augury to trite truism: that whichever party wins the presidency, a substantial proportion of the losers will not accept the result as legitimate. Imagine, then, that it is Wednesday 6 November 2024, and a presidential victor has been declared. Whose indignation would pose the greater threat to American civic order – the left’s or the

Claudine Gay is gone – but Harvard’s radical clerisy remain

In the end, Barack Obama, Penny Pritzker, 700-some members of the faculty, the mighty voice of the Harvard Crimson and the entire nomenclature of the Diversity, Equality and Inclusion movement could not save her from herself. Claudine Gay resigned as president of Harvard University after a month of relentless criticism. In principle, her feckless performance on 5 December before the House of Representatives’ committee on education and the workforce should have been sufficient to persuade Harvard’s board (which aristocratically calls itself the Harvard Corporation) to cut her loose. But it took wave after wave of revelations about alleged Gay’s plagiarism to break the hauteur of Ms. Pritzker and the ten other members