Middle East

Jake Wallis Simons

A Saudi-Israel peace deal would be a game-changer

It emerged this week that the head of the Mossad, David Barnea, slipped quietly over to Washington in July to hold secret talks about the prospect of an Israel-Saudi peace deal. This was part of a drip-drip of stories suggesting that an agreement may be back on the cards after an Iran-Saudi deal brokered by China complicated things in March. Israel is far from finished as a beacon of hope in the Middle East In another significant development, the respected Saudi newspaper Arab News published an editorial this week selling a possible deal to its readers. This followed a study finding that Saudi Arabia has scrubbed ‘practically all’ antisemitism and

The increasing irrelevance of Benjamin Netanyahu

Jerusalem The most tedious question in Israeli politics is: ‘Will this be the end of Benjamin Netanyahu?’ It has come up again in recent weeks as Israel has found itself on the brink of chaos over his coalition government’s attempts to pass laws weakening the independence of the judiciary, including the Supreme Court. And while the civilian unrest is unprecedented in the country’s history, anyone who has spent even a moderate amount of time observing Israel in the past decades should know by now that the answer, as long as Netanyahu is still breathing, is ‘no’. Netanyahu can’t discipline or sack his ministers. To do so would almost certainly cost

Iran’s morality police can’t save the mullahs forever

Iran’s so-called morality police, loathed and feared in equal measure, are back patrolling the streets of the country. They temporarily disappeared from view in the wake of the widespread public protests over the death last September of Mahsa Amini, a young Kurdish woman. She was arrested and beaten, and subsequently died in police custody. Her crime? Not wearing the hijab ‘properly’. She had a few strands of hair showing, enough to be deemed a violation of the strict dress code for women. She paid for this with her life.  Iran’s leaders were rattled by the furious public reaction to her death. Thousands marched in protest, demanding rights and protections for

Was I right about Iraq?

Back in March there was a glut of pieces about the 2003 Iraq war. The 20th anniversary seemed to much of the political and pundit class to be the perfect time to return to this scorched landscape. A number of people asked me to throw in my views and I failed, for two reasons. Firstly because, as some readers will know, I hate anniversaries and the lazy hook they provide to the news cycle. Secondly, because each time I sat down to try to write about those days I found myself unusually conflicted. Those of us who defended the war have spent 20 years filled with ‘if onlys’ The reason

Why won’t James Cleverly stand up to Iran?

The Foreign Office is making a big mistake in failing to designate Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as a terrorist group. The 100,000 strong organisation, the most powerful wing of Iran’s security apparatus, was established after the 1979 Islamic revolution. For decades it has been at the heart of Iranian support for global terrorism on foreign soil, including the UK and Europe. It also arms and supports militant groups across the Middle East. By any rational measure the group meets all the criteria for a ban under the 2000 Terrorism Act. Yet the Foreign Office continues to avoid the necessary step of proscribing the revolutionary guards, despite fresh evidence from

Prepare for the Saudi tennis takeover

The self-serving ethical blind spots of some of those in charge of running international sport never ceases to amaze. Step forward Andrea Gaudenzi, a former top 20 singles player who now leads the Association of Tennis Professionals (ATP), the global governing body of the men’s circuit. Gaudenzi recently revealed that tennis officials have been in discussions with Saudi Arabia’s public investment fund on projects including events, infrastructure and technology investment. He described the talks  as ‘positive’, before adding predictable reassurances that any investors had to respect the history of the sport. Is there a sport left that stands for anything more than just succumbing to Saudi Arabia’s latest big money

The tragedy of Iraq’s Jews

Walk into my grandmother’s living room in north-west London, and you could be forgiven for thinking you had suddenly stepped into the Middle East. The coffee table is laden with treats, from homemade date-filled flatbreads to baklawa and nuts. Al Jazeera plays on the flatscreen, reeling off the latest news about the Israel-Palestinian conflict. In the corner of the room is a darbuka drum and my late grandpa’s backgammon set for anyone who fancies a game. In the kitchen there are two pots brewing: one making slow-steamed tea laced with cardamon, the other Arabic coffee ready to be poured into miniature cups. Unsurprisingly, my family are often here – along with the

Joe Biden is wrong to roll out the red carpet for Narendra Modi

On taking office, Joe Biden promised a new approach to foreign policy based on prioritising democratic values and human rights. The US president spoke of ‘the battle between democracy and autocracy’ as the defining struggle of the time, effectively dividing the world into two clear and opposing camps. Now Biden is having to eat his own words by playing host to Narendra Modi, the prime minister of India. It would be a stretch to describe Modi as a standard bearer for human rights or Western democratic values.  Even so, Modi is being given the red carpet treatment in Washington, including the honour of making an address to a joint session

What Avi Shlaim gets wrong about the persecution of Jews in Iraq

In his Spectator review of Avi Shlaim’s memoir Three Worlds, Justin Marozzi refers to the author’s claims about the 1950-51 terrorist bombings of Jewish targets in Baghdad: ‘Shlaim’s bombshell is to uncover what he terms “undeniable proof of Zionist involvement in the terrorist attacks”, which helped terminate the millennial presence of Jews in Babylon’. Marozzi calls these claims ‘controversial’ but he doesn’t delve into just how controversial. The charge is that Zionists attacked Iraqi Jews in order to encourage them to flee to Israel.  There are several problems with this theory. As the investigative journalist David Collier has argued, ‘these explosions did not cause the exodus…the Iraqi Jews were persecuted, were offered a window to leave, and despite the fact they had to

The West could pay a heavy price for the Taliban’s war on drugs

The meth and heroin addicts were still gathering in their hundreds in a squalid encampment under the Pul-e-Sokhta bridge in the Afghan capital of Kabul. It was a sorry sight to see them squatting beside bonfires while stray dogs ran around them, barking. Many were homeless and had nowhere else to go.  ‘It’s easier to access the substance here,’ a dealer and one of the bridge camp’s scruffy inhabitants told me. ‘Everything is available here, best quality. They (the police) come here but they don’t bother us a lot. We are friends with the dogs; when it’s cold the dogs sit next to us; they may get high when we

Putin’s anti-western oil alliance is coming unstuck

As Russia frantically attempts to hold on to its territorial gains in the face of the much-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive, there are early signs that it is also failing to retain its diplomatic and foreign policy advances. The anti-Western energy alliances it had constructed around the world with many of the leading oil and gas producers, which had endured despite the invasion, are beginning to fracture. Its attempts to shutdown competitors to Russian oil and gas have proved futile. It all went wrong so quickly for Russia. Back in 2016, the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) expanded to include Russia as part of OPEC+. The deal, painstakingly brokered by Saudi

David Loyn

Why Iran and the Taliban are clashing over water

Remarkable as it may sound, it looks as if a border skirmish this week between Iranian and Afghan border guards, which involved at least three deaths, was about water. This is not the first border clash as tensions grow over scarce water resources between Iran and the 20-month old Taliban regime, although it is the first that is known to have cost lives.   Earlier this month, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi raised the issue of the 1973 water treaty, designed to share access to water from the Helmand river, which flows across the border. He claimed that the Taliban were violating terms of the agreement, under which Afghanistan is committed

What Erdogan’s victory means for British-Turkish relations

During his 21 consecutive years in power Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has proven many of his critics, and Turkish opinion polls wrong. Once again he has won a decisive victory in the country’s presidential elections. In the end, Turks cast their votes for stability, despite a considerable number of western analysts expecting the opposite outcome earlier this year.  Now, what does that mean for Turkish-British bilateral relations?   It’s no secret that Europe’s security starts at Turkey’s borders. Various regional conflicts – such as Iraq, and Syria – have proven this to be the case. After the unprecedented refugee crises over the last decade, western countries bitterly realised that without cooperating with Ankara, controlling massive

The French academic paying a heavy price for probing the Muslim Brotherhood

Loitering by the entrance, I clock a large gentleman with tattoos crawling up his neck from underneath his collar. It’s immediately obvious he’s not there for lunch: he is there on behalf of the French state to prevent an assassination. Specifically, the targeting of the academic I am meeting: Dr. Florence Bergeaud-Blackler, who’s been living under police protection for the last six weeks since the reaction to her book on the Muslim Brotherhood took a turn. The Muslim Brotherhood is perhaps the most significant Islamist organisation in the world. A political party founded against the backdrop of 20th century colonialism in Egypt, it arrived in the West via students and exiles fleeing repressive

Stephen Daisley

The inconvenient Palestinians

His name was Abdullah Abu Jaba and I want you to remember it because it’s the last time you’ll hear it. He was a Palestinian from Gaza, reportedly a father of six, and was killed in the latest clashes between Israel and Palestine Islamic Jihad. You haven’t heard of Abu Jaba because he was an inconvenient Palestinian, one who cannot be held up as the latest victim of Zionist aggression. Pictures of his weeping widow and confused children will not fill your social media timeline. Major media outlets will not compete to tell human interest stories about how he played with his children or how his family will cope without him. No

How president Erdogan defied the odds – again

The results of yesterday’s election have come as a sobering shock for many in Turkey. Although president Erdogan fell just short in the first round of the 50 per cent he needed to automatically secure another term, a parliamentary majority remains within his grasp. Erdogan is now expected to comfortably win the run-off. Even before the counting was finished, he delivered a victory speech in Ankara on Sunday night. If Erdogan surpassed expectations, the opposition significantly underperformed. In the lead-up to the election, numerous polls suggested that the joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, held a lead of up to five points over his rival, giving him a good chance of

David Loyn

Is the West preparing to sell out the Afghan people again?

While the Taliban continues to double down against women in Afghanistan, the UN appears to be wanting to normalise relations with them. Women in the country are already blocked from almost all jobs and all education. Yet a week after the extremist group barred females from working for the UN, the organisation’s deputy secretary general Amina Mohammed said it was now time to take ‘baby steps’ towards ‘recognition (of the Taliban)’.   As UN spokespeople tried to limit the damage, protests poured in from Afghan opposition groups. One statement from a wide group of Afghan artists and human rights activists slammed nearly two years of ‘futile regional and global diplomacy’

Why wasn’t the Foreign Office prepared for Sudan?

The fiasco in Khartoum is being widely interpreted as a tragic failure of intelligence. James Cleverly, the Foreign Secretary, is facing questions about how and why the government was caught unawares as Sudan descended into bloody chaos. There are bodies on the streets of Khartoum, foreigners have fled the city, and those who remain are braced for a resumption of war. A United Nations-brokered truce turned out to be illusory. It is tempting to think of diplomats as an unnecessary luxury in the 21st century, but they are vital The British military managed to evacuate about 100 diplomatic staff but most of the estimated 4,000 British nationals remain in a

Benjamin Netanyahu has made his troubles even worse

Israeli politics is rarely quiet, but recent events have taken the drama and volubility to another level. The country has faced 11 weeks of protests against the make-up of Israel’s governing coalition and reforms to the country’s judicial system. Hundreds of thousands of people have taken to the streets. Roads have been blocked. The Knesset and politicians’ homes in Jerusalem have been targeted. Israeli police have used mounted officers, stun grenades and water cannon to disperse demonstrators. With the protests showing no signs of abating, last night – ahead of his visit to London – the country’s prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu made a tone deaf television address. ‘We can’t let any

Is this the man who could topple Turkey’s president Erdogan?

After months of negotiations and a week of drama, the Turkish opposition bloc has announced Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People’s Party (CHP), as their joint presidential candidate. The general election in May looks set to be the biggest challenge president Erdoğan has faced since coming to power in 2002. An unusual scene unfolded in Ankara on Monday night. A huge portrait of Atatürk, the radically secular founding father of modern Turkey, fluttered in the breeze over the headquarters of an Islamist party. Outside, thousands gathered, chanting the name Kılıçdaroğlu, a politician from a religious minority, the Alevis, who have faced persecution for most of the Turkish Republic’s