Middle East

Is Britain ready to defend itself against Iranian reprisals?

Operation Midnight Hammer, America’s air and missile strikes against Iran at the weekend, did not involve the United Kingdom. Although the Prime Minister was informed of the military action in advance, there was not, so far as we know, any request from the United States for British approval, participation or support, and Sir Keir Starmer continues to call for a de-escalation of the conflict. There had been a great deal of suggestion that the UK might be drawn into action against Iran. The most likely scenario was thought to be a request from Washington to use Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, the maritime and air base America leases from Britain

Is Iran about to choke the West’s energy supply?

Nato has learned nothing from Russia’s energy blackmail – and Iran is about to prove it. With precision warheads and hypersonic payloads tearing Israeli and Iranian skies, you might think we’re witnessing the next frontier in modern warfare. But it’s an old game, played with old rules. And once again, Tehran reaches for its well-worn lever of power: energy blackmail. Already, markets are twitching. Crude has jumped over 10 per cent Senior Iranian officials, including Revolutionary Guard commander Esmail Kowsari, have warned that, if Israeli attacks continue, Tehran will not only exit the non-proliferation treaty (thus tearing up its last fig-leaf of nuclear restraint), but will also close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s

Why Muslim-majority countries have turned against Iran

Swift condemnations have poured in from the Muslim world castigating Israel for bombing Iran. The UAE condemned Israel ‘in the strongest terms’, Jordan spoke up against Israeli attacks ‘threatening regional stability’, Saudi Arabia denounced ‘blatant Israeli aggressions’, Turkey espoused ‘an end to Israel’s banditry’, while various Muslim diplomatic groups, including the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation (OIC), demanded ‘international action’ against the Jewish State. But cloaked underneath this predictably farcical rhetoric of ‘Muslim unity’ are the evolving interests of many of these states, which today align seamlessly with Israel. Saudi Arabia has described ‘evil’ Iran as the ‘head of the snake’ In Israel’s immediate neighbourhood, Lebanese officials are blocking the depleted Iranian jihadist proxy Hezbollah from taking action against Israel. Meanwhile, the Ahmed al-Sharaa-led Syria,

Only regime change will solve the problem of Iran

The Middle East currently stands at a crossroads. The future geopolitical balance and perhaps also the historical direction of the region depend on the outcome of the war currently underway between Israel and Iran. With the US poised on the cusp of possible intervention, it’s important to grasp the nature and dimension of what is at stake.   To understand the weight of the present moment, it is necessary to accurately define the nature of the current conflict and its roots. This is a war not only or primarily between states. It is a conflict between systems of governance and between rival visions of the region.   The objective needs to

Will Trump pull the trigger and strike Iran?

This morning’s sirens shattered the early calm across much of Israel. Quiet anticipation had already been building, as signs pointed to a long anticipated American entry into the conflict, but no one yet knows when, or if, it will truly come. It had been a relatively quiet night; after a brief stint in the bomb shelter around midnight, I had managed to sleep uninterrupted until around 7 a.m. when the Home Front Command app sent the ‘pre-alert’ warning. A sign of how quickly you adapt, I first warmed up the Gaggia and made myself an espresso, before entering the shelter in our building as the sirens began to wail through

‘De-escalation’ won’t work on Iran

As Donald Trump hastily dashed home from the G7 meeting in Canada to deal with the escalating conflict between Iran and Israel, Prime Minister Keir Starmer went to speak to reporters. The G7 resolution on Iran, he said, ‘was about de-escalation’. ‘The thrust of the statement is in accordance with what I was saying on the way out here, which is to de-escalate the situation, and to de-escalate it across the region rather than to escalate it,’ he added. The Prime Minister has clung doggedly to this line since the first reports came through early last Friday morning of massive and coordinated Israeli air strikes on Iran. That afternoon, Downing

Will Iranians rise up against the mullahs?

Iran’s crumbling regime is fighting a war to the death on two fronts. The first and foremost is the conflict with Israel. It is safe to say that the Israelis – so far at least – are winning comfortably. The other conflict is the fight the mullahs are waging against their own people. The outcome of that battle is much harder to predict. The initial success of the Israeli strikes has given Iranians an unprecedented chance to seize the moment and topple their oppressors. Can they do it? Will they do it? And what becomes of the country if it frees itself from despotic rule? The rift between Iranians and their rulers

Why Britain needs Israel to win against Iran

It’s understandable that the focus of coverage of Israel’s strikes on Iran, and the Iranian regime’s response, has been entirely on the potential regional consequences of Israel’s mission to destroy Iran’s nuclear capability. But although this may seem more like a version of Neville Chamberlain’s infamous ‘quarrel in a faraway country between people of whom we know nothing’ than an issue of immediate relevance to British national security, it is most definitely the latter. It is vital to our national security that Israel succeeds. For one thing, Iran operates hit squads in the UK with the explicit aim of assassinating British citizens it deems to be enemies. It’s said that

Israel isn’t close to victory over Iran

Amongst a swirl of pronouncements from Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran – and against the dramatic backdrop of an Iranian TV presenter’s rather tired fire and fury being interrupted by the sound of bombs – Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Israel is close to “victory.” Yet despite Ayatollah Khamenei being hidden in a bunker, experiencing regular panic attacks and now shielded from the worst news of his battered nation, any talk of “victory” by the Israeli prime minister feels hollow and premature. Talk of human rights, revolutions and the evils of the Islamic Republic have been cast aside as luxuries As this war thunders into its fifth day, Iranians across the country

How Iran is piercing Israel’s state-of-the-art missile defences

Since the beginning of ‘Operation True Promise III’ – launched after Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear infrastructure, leadership targets, and military sites – Iran has fired over 370 ballistic missiles at Israel, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office on Monday. This is not the first time Israel has faced large-scale Iranian missile attacks. Similar volleys were launched in April and October 2024. The difference this time is that the strikes have caused casualties inside Israel. According to the latest reports, 24 people have been killed and roughly 600 injured in Iranian missile attacks. Missile defence is often described as shooting a bullet with a bullet, except that the target travels

Israel will not be cowed by Iran

Yesterday morning, as families in central Israel emerged from bomb shelters after yet another sleepless night, the air was once again rent by sirens and the thunder of incoming missiles. Fires ignited across multiple cities. In Petah Tikva, a building lay smouldering from a direct hit. In Haifa, Iranian missiles struck near the port, severely damaging a power facility and forcing Bazan, Israel’s major oil refining and petrochemicals company, to suspend activity at all its plants. With grim efficiency, medics and emergency teams scrambled to locate survivors. It was the largest barrage of the war so far – around 100 ballistic missiles launched in a single salvo. And yet, amid the

Stephen Daisley

Why is the US so reluctant to fight Iran?

MAGA (Make America Great Again) isolationists all agree: the United States must not be drawn into the Israel-Iran war. Donald Trump was not elected president to become entangled in pointless foreign conflicts. Over on Truth Social, Trump’s hokey-pokey routine continues – in, out, in, out, send the Fifth Fleet out? – and America Firsters despair at the prospect of the US fighting ‘a war for Israel’. In Jerusalem, the thinking is the exact opposite: Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu is reportedly concerned that the unpredictable Trump could push Israel to conclude Operation Rising Lion before its military objectives are met. This is all very interesting as Kremlinology, but it also throws

Iran is too weak to wage a ground war against Israel

As Israel advances its surgical reduction of Iran’s nuclear facilities and senior command, and Iran continues to launch missiles randomly at Israeli population centres in response, it is interesting to note what is not happening. Notably absent is any ground element to the war, which is currently being fought entirely between air and missile forces.   Israel has effectively reversed two decades of Iranian advance across the Middle East This brings home just how much the picture has changed in Israel’s favour over the last 20 months. It also reveals the deeper logic of this war. On 6 October, the Iran-led regional alliance stood as the most powerful strategic axis in the Middle East, pursuing

The danger of recognising a Palestinian state

As Western leaders prepare to gather in New York this week to discuss international recognition of a Palestinian state, a stark signal from Washington demands their attention. US Ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee has openly stated that he does not believe Palestinian statehood remains an American foreign policy goal. ‘Unless there are some significant things that happen that change the culture, there’s no room for it,’ Huckabee told Bloomberg News this week, adding that such changes ‘probably won’t happen in our lifetime’. The White House, far from rebuking him, referred reporters to past remarks from President Trump questioning whether a two-state solution ‘is going to work’.  Huckabee’s statement is, of

Saudi Arabia’s soft power art attack

From roughly the 1970s to the mid-2010s, Saudi Arabia was the stuff of nightmares, referred to now, with understatement, as ‘the dark period’. Governed by the austere, brutal credo of the cleric Muhammad ibn Abd al-Wahhab, an 18th century Quran literalist who divided the world into true Muslims (Salafis/Wahhabis) and their mortal enemies, Saudi life was ruled by fear of the omnipresent religious police. Executions were commonplace, TV was banned, women were essentially locked up, and most foreigners and outward travel were blocked.  Wahhabiism has been softened a great deal since then. Since 2017, when the frenetic moderniser Mohammed Bin Salman (MBS) became Crown Prince, a thousand laws have been dropped, and suddenly women, while still second-class

Israel strikes Iran – how will Iran retaliate?

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Israel struck military and nuclear targets in Iran overnight in a major escalation of hostilities in the Middle East has begun further strikes on Friday. Iran has vowed retaliation though President Trump has warned Iran and encouraged the Iranians to continue negotiations over their nuclear programme. Further talks had been due to take place this weekend. What’s Israel’s objective? And does this underline the unpredictability of geopolitics, at a time when the UK has pledged significantly more money for defence?  Patrick Gibbons speaks to James Heale and Michael Stephens, associate fellow at RUSI. Plus: updates on assisted dying and the government’s plans for welfare. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Israel’s war with Iran is only getting started

With the launch of Operation ‘Rising Lion’, Israel appears to have sought to take advantage of a narrow window of opportunity. Through its own actions over the last 18 months, the Iranian regime brought itself to a moment of extreme vulnerability. Tehran found itself in an uncomfortable position in which it continued to seek to prosecute its long war against Israel – intended to result in the Jewish state’s demise – while at the same time finding itself shorn of many of the capacities for aggression and defence on which it had relied. Israel has struck in this narrow window. Iranian has retaliated. The two sides are continuing to exchange strikes.   The

Stephen Daisley

Israel’s Iran attack has done the West a favour

Israel’s overnight strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran represent the initial salvo of what Jerusalem is calling Operation Rising Lion. In Genesis 49, Jacob tells his sons: ‘Judah is a lion’s cub/ from the prey, my son, you rise up/ He lies down and crouches like a lion/ like a lioness — who dares disturb him?’ Jerusalem is bracing itself for painful reprisals and has put its citizens on alert Israel rose up after years of warning the world of Iran’s plot to acquire nuclear weapons. In a series of daring precision strikes, it has targeted key regime figures, ballistic missile supplies and the Natanz nuclear facility. Israeli intelligence

Israel’s attack on Iran marks the beginning of a new era for the Middle East

On 5 June 1967, Israel destroyed three Arab air forces with a devastating pre-emptive strike at the start of what became the Six-Day War. Overnight, Israel has undertaken what appears to be a similarly devastating pre-emptive attack, this time on Iranian nuclear, military and terror facilities. Israel has undertaken what appears to be a devastating pre-emptive attack But there is a key difference between the two strikes. In 1967, Israel was fighting to defend only itself. It had no allies in the region and little concern with what happened outside its own borders. Today, Israel is not only acting as a proxy for the West itself; it is acting against