Middle East

Qatar is basking in its latest diplomatic success. On Monday evening, Qatari diplomats brokered a ceasefire between Israel and Iran. This truce remains intact despite Iran’s parliamentary vote to suspend cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) nuclear watchdog and brinkmanship over alleged breaches of the ceasefire.  Qatar’s success was the product of years of tenacious diplomacy and capitalisation on time-tested partnerships with the key warring parties. During the summer of 2022, Qatar hosted indirect nuclear negotiations between US and Iranian officials. While these talks did not produce immediate results, Qatar continued its efforts. In August 2023, Qatar facilitated a US-Iran hostage deal that led to the unfreezing of $6 billion (£4.4

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, has made his first public comments since the ceasefire with Israel took hold. Khamenei, who has ultimate authority over all major decisions in the country, has not been seen or heard from in more than a week. His pre-recorded speech, aired on state television, is meant to put an end to rising speculation about his fate after he went into hiding at the start of the conflict. In the televised address, the Iranian leader hailed his country’s ‘victory’ over Israel and vowed never to surrender to the United States. The Iranian leader was eager to tell anyone who would listen that the US bombing of

It was bound to happen. Leaving aside, for the moment, the burning question of whether the US strikes on Iran will have set back Tehran’s nuclear programme by weeks, months or years, this moment feels in many ways like an apotheosis of sorts. The Omega (or perhaps Alpha depending on your sense of ontology) of US attempts at talking to the Islamic Republic, a culmination of decades of frustration at the Ayatollah’s unique ability to talk peace and negotiation while murdering and destabilising. The Islamic Republic now has few good options The history of the Islamic Republic, from its brazen assassinations to the long-drawn out nuclear saga, is one in which the public face of the regime – suave diplomats and

Nato has learned nothing from Russia’s energy blackmail – and Iran is about to prove it. With precision warheads and hypersonic payloads tearing Israeli and Iranian skies, you might think we’re witnessing the next frontier in modern warfare. But it’s an old game, played with old rules. And once again, Tehran reaches for its well-worn lever of power: energy blackmail. Already, markets are twitching. Crude has jumped over 10 per cent Senior Iranian officials, including Revolutionary Guard commander Esmail Kowsari, have warned that, if Israeli attacks continue, Tehran will not only exit the non-proliferation treaty (thus tearing up its last fig-leaf of nuclear restraint), but will also close the Strait of Hormuz. That’s

Amongst a swirl of pronouncements from Tel Aviv, Washington and Tehran – and against the dramatic backdrop of an Iranian TV presenter’s rather tired fire and fury being interrupted by the sound of bombs – Benjamin Netanyahu has claimed that Israel is close to “victory.” Yet despite Ayatollah Khamenei being hidden in a bunker, experiencing regular panic attacks and now shielded from the worst news of his battered nation, any talk of “victory” by the Israeli prime minister feels hollow and premature. Talk of human rights, revolutions and the evils of the Islamic Republic have been cast aside as luxuries As this war thunders into its fifth day, Iranians across the country