Middle East

Sunday

Paul Mason

Israel has a chance to de-escalate after Iran’s failed attack

Iran’s strike on Israel yesterday is, simultaneously, a moment for alarm and calm. Alarm because, by unleashing more than 300 drones, cruise and ballistic missiles in response to Israel’s attack on its Damascus consulate at the start of the month, Iran is basically saying: we can do this every time Israel or its allies cross a line. Calm because not only did Israel repel the attack, it did so thanks to collaboration from its Western allies and friendly Arab states, with both Saudi Arabia and Jordan opening their skies to US combat aircraft. Israel has the right to defend itself, and will doubtless respond militarily. But its allies have a

Sean Rayment

Despite their failed attack, Iran should not be underestimated

Iran’s overnight mass drone attack on Israel was supposed to be payback for the assassination of Iranian Republican Guard Corps commander General Mohammad Reza Zahedi. In truth, though, it was a tepid, face-saving response which the ayatollahs in Tehran knew would fail. In the early hours of this morning, the Iranian army described what it called ‘Operation Honest Promise’ – the drone and missile attack on Israel – as a complete success. But in reality, the attack had minimal tactical impact, despite the highly orchestrated flag waving jubilation in Tehran’s Palestine Square. Iran’s military would have made certain that both Israel and the US, knew what was coming Former MI6 Chief Sir

Thursday

Eliot Wilson

Has Iran saved Israel’s relationship with the US?

Only a few days ago, President Biden was framing remarks about Israel in tones which were astoundingly critical for an American leader. For decades it has been axiomatic that there is barely a cigarette paper between Washington and Jerusalem, but Israel’s prosecution of the war in Gaza has threatened to push them apart. Biden condemned the ‘indiscriminate’ bombing, and last week made his views unmistakable clear: ‘Israel has not done enough to protect civilians.’ Suddenly, though, without meaning to, it looks like the Islamic Republic of Iran may have saved Israel’s most important bilateral relationship. Last week, an Israeli air strike on Iran’s consulate in Damascus killed 16 people, including

Tuesday

Jonathan Spyer

Iran’s four options for revenge against Israel

I recently returned from a trip to the south east Syrian province of Deir al Zur, where I witnessed Kurdish and American soldiers in a tense face-off against Iranian and proxy forces along the Euphrates River line. After making my way home to Jerusalem via Iraq, Jordan and northern Israel, I had hoped for a couple of days respite from the Middle East and its attentions. No such luck. A terse message arrived in my community WhatsApp group: ‘The Home Front Command has this evening updated the list of required items, in an article at its national emergency portal. In contrast to the previous list, the current list includes food

Wednesday

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

The truth about Israel’s ‘friendly fire’

David Cameron has got some front. The Foreign Secretary is haranguing Israel over its tragic unintentional killing of seven aid workers in Gaza, and yet he oversaw a war in which such ‘friendly fire’ horrors were commonplace. In fact, more than seven people were slain in accidental bombings under Cameron’s watch. Terrible accidents happen in war It was the Libya intervention of 2011. In that Nato-led excursion, in which Cameron, then prime minister, was an enthusiastic partner, numerous Libyans died as a result of misaimed bombs. Things got so bad that the West’s allies took to painting the roofs of their vehicles bright pink in an effort to avoid Nato’s

Duncan Gardham

Did an Iranian hit squad attack a journalist in London?

Counter-terrorist detectives investigating a stabbing of a dissident Iranian journalist in London have discovered that three suspects left the country within hours of the attack. Pouria Zeraati, 36, a presenter for Iran International, was knifed in the leg outside his home in Wimbledon on Friday. The suspects fled the scene to Heathrow before boarding a flight. Police are keeping an open mind about any potential motivation for the attack but the chief suspects are operatives of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).  Iran has a long history of targeting those they believe are threatening the regime, but the last two years have seen a peak in threats to dissidents living overseas. Since 2022, counter-terrorism police

Tuesday

Gareth Roberts Gareth Roberts

Anti-Israel virtue signallers should leave Eurovision alone

The 2024 Eurovision Song Contest – the final of which will be held in Malmö on 11 May – is the latest peculiar target of pompous virtue signallers. The hosts of the UK’s largest Eurovision screening have announced their decision to scrap the event. The reason? Israel, of course. ‘We have collectively decided not to screen the Grand Final of the Eurovision Song Contest this year while Israel remains in the competition,’ the independent Rio cinema in Dalston, east London, said in a statement. Reminder: they are talking here, not about the fall of the Berlin Wall, or the Good Friday Agreement, but The Eurovision Song Contest – which generates

Zoe Strimpel

Britain should follow Germany’s lead in weeding out anti-Semites

On the surface of it, Germany’s new pathway to citizenship sounds like a rare dose of sense from the one country in the Western world whose modern history means it still understands why Israel has a right to exist. One surefire short-hand for establishing who means us ill is by singling out those who mean our Jews ill The shake-up makes it easier to get German citizenship, allowing people to apply five rather than eight years after they arrive in the country – and just three years for those with good language skills. But for die-hard anti-Semites, the process will get harder, with questions that may involve naming the date of Israel’s founding

Daniel Thorpe

Is this the beginning of the end for Erdogan?

President Erdogan’s political star rose when he won the local elections in Istanbul exactly 30 years ago. ‘The one who wins Istanbul wins the whole of Turkey,’ he once said. His famous sentence is now back to haunt him. People already talk about ‘the beginning of the end’ for Erdogan In Istanbul yesterday, tens of thousands of people gathered to celebrate not Erdogan but Ekrem Imamoglu, the opposition’s incumbent mayor, in municipal elections. Despite the fatigue from last year’s general elections, over 78 per cent of Turkey’s 61 million-strong electorate turned up to cast their votes yesterday. Their backing for Imamoglu was resounding: his Republican People’s Party (CHP) performed spectacularly, securing 37.7

Limor Simhony Philpott

How will Iran respond to Israel’s assassination in Damascus?

Last night, six missiles fired from an Israeli F-35 combat aircraft hit and destroyed a building belonging to the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria. At the time, a meeting between high-ranking members of the Iranian Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and members of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad were taking place. The attack resulted in the death of two IRGC generals: Mohammad Reza Zahedi who was leader of the Quds force – the IRGC force in Syria and Lebanon – and his deputy, Sardar Haji Rahimi. It is reported that at least five other IRGC officers were killed in what is one of Israel’s most successful assassinations of senior Iranian commanders.

Thursday

Jake Wallis Simons Jake Wallis Simons

Biden’s Rafah plan will only help Hamas

The fathers, brothers and sons who are risking their lives for their country do not want to go into Rafah, on the Egyptian border of the Gaza strip. The ordinary Palestinians who hate Hamas and wish for a swift Israeli victory – and there are more of them than you think – do not want a battle in Rafah. There are more than a million human shields there. The question is not one of wants. The question is one of needs. If Rafah remains untouched, Israel will have lost the war Attacking the terrorists’ last redoubt is not some kind of genocidal indulgence, as many in the west would shamefully

Tuesday

Limor Simhony Philpott

Why Israel targeted Gaza’s al-Shifa hospital

Gaza’s largest hospital, al-Shifa, was once again turned into a battlefield yesterday. Five hours of fighting between Israel and Hamas at the hospital, viewed by Israel as a base used by terrorists, led to some 80 Palestinians being detained. Israel claimed to have killed about 20 terrorists in the precision raid, including Faiq Mabhouh, the head of Hamas’s internal security operations. The IDF (Israeli Defence Forces) also found a large cache of weapons, including rifles, grenades, rocket launchers and cash hidden inside al-Shifa. Mabhouh’s death follows that of Marwan Issa, deputy commander of Hamas’s military wing, last week. These killings will dramatically weaken Hamas, but Israel remains some way off the

Saturday

Paul Morland

Hamas blew Gaza’s golden opportunity

Whatever else the arguments concerning the Gaza War, none is more wrong-headed than the suggestion that Gazans were living in such straitened circumstances that they had no choice but to ‘break out’ on 7 October. Palestinian solidarity protestors routinely describe Gaza as a ‘prison camp’. Even the Foreign Secretary David Cameron has previously used that term to talk about Gaza. In the wake of the Hamas massacre, the UN Chief Antonio Guterres insisted that the events of 7 October ‘did not happen in a vacuum’. Although he later denied that this was a ‘justification’ of the murders, rapes and kidnappings of Israelis by Gazans, Guterres’s comments tied in with a

Monday

Limor Simhony Philpott

Why a Ramadan ceasefire in Gaza looks unlikely

Hopes for a temporary ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas during Ramadan were dashed over the weekend, when it became apparent that no such deal would be reached before the beginning of the holy month. Weeks of tough negotiations that raised optimistic speculations about a deal have so far produced no tangible results. Hamas has hardened its position on a temporary ceasefire that would include the release of Israeli hostages in return for Palestinian prisoners. This came as no surprise to Israeli negotiators; Israel has been warning for weeks that Hamas is set to reject a deal while attempting to provoke violent clashes between Palestinians and Arab-Israelis, and Israeli security

Monday

Damien Phillips

Netanyahu’s post-war Gaza plan looks dead on arrival

Israel’s government has finally begun to turn its attention to what happens once the war in Gaza is over. The ‘basic contours’ of a hostage deal – and possible second Gaza ceasefire – continue to take shape, with further talks set to take place this week in Qatar’s capital Doha between Israel’s intelligence services, the United States, and Hamas via Qatari and Egyptian mediators. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plan for post-war Gaza has been a long time coming, with his government constantly dogged by the question of what its goals are beyond destroying Hamas and what the endgame for the Palestinians might look like. You would think that with

Thursday

Jawad Iqbal

America might regret its Baghdad drone strike

The latest American drone strike in Iraq, which killed the commander of a powerful Iranian-backed militia group, is one more dangerous escalation in the increasingly unpredictable Middle East conflict. The US strike in the Iraqi capital Baghdad targeted Wisam ‘Abu Baqer’ al-Saadi – a senior leader of Kataib Hezbollah, which the Pentagon blames for the attack that led to the deaths of three American soldiers in Jordan last month. The rationale for the American retaliation is clear enough. It sends a powerful message that Washington will punish attacks on US forces in the region, using every means to hunt down those responsible. Everyone and everything – from military leaders to

Wednesday

Jawad Iqbal

Pakistani politics is like a Monopoly game

The levels of cynicism and disillusionment surrounding the upcoming parliamentary elections in Pakistan – due to take place tomorrow – are remarkable, even for a country with a chequered democratic tradition. Few people believe the vote will be free or fair, with widespread speculation that the country’s all-powerful military has already decided the result and will stop at nothing to get its way. Put simply, the election is a charade.  This is how things stand. The country’s former prime minister, Imran Khan, is in jail. More on him later. Another former leader, Nawaz Sharif, who was in exile after his own spell in jail, has returned home, and all outstanding cases against

Monday

Jay Mens

Performative airstrikes against the Houthis will achieve nothing

Performative sanctions have long been the last refuge of the lazy policymaker looking to ‘do something’. Take, for instance, the sanctions that are slapped on unsavoury individuals from around the world on an almost-weekly basis: Turkish assassins, Iranian guerrilla commanders, Somali pirates, and Yemeni rebels are among those who have been whacked with the sanctions stick. Unsurprisingly, nobody has repented as a result of being listed, meaning that the sanctions roster is a government naughty list and little more. After more than a decade of performative sanctions, the public is slowly cottoning onto the fact that they don’t seem to offer much. Amidst this scrutiny, policymakers are increasingly drawn to

Tuesday

Jawad Iqbal

Why Jordan is in Iran’s sights

The drone attack on a US base in Jordan that killed three American troops and injured dozens risks bringing one more country into the orbit of the war between Israel and Hamas. US president Joe Biden has blamed ‘Tehran-backed militants’ operating in Syria and Iraq for the strike on Tower 22, a US base on Jordan’s border with Syria, and has promised reprisals. Iran has denied any involvement: Tehran prefers to let its proxies do its dirty work. Watching on nervously is Jordan. Iran, whatever its denials, has much to gain by sowing instability in Jordan Iranian-backed militias in Syria, Iraq and Yemen have now launched more than 150 attacks on US positions in

Monday

Jay Mens

Time is running out to crack down on Iran

Three American soldiers on the Syria-Jordan border were killed by Iranian drones on Sunday. Since October, Iranian drones and missiles have injured nearly two hundred American troops. The pipe dream that was the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action – the Iran deal – could not seem more distant. The equation at the heart of the deal, more money for more Iranian concessions, vanished shortly after an agreement was concluded in 2015. In the years since, Iran’s funding to its regional proxies exploded, and its proxies’ attacks on Israel and the Gulf states continued unabated. The Houthis in Yemen, who emerged in earnest after the deal was struck, are now a