World

Wednesday

Charles Lipson

Biden failed on Iran

Did American failures contribute to Hamas’s war of terror – its unprovoked attack, its total surprise, its horrific butchering of innocent civilians simply because they are Jews? Yes, but a lesser one. The failures to discover the plans, deter the attack and, having failed at deterrence, to defeat it promptly are Israel’s. The secondary actor here is Iran, not the United States. It was the Islamic regime in Tehran that supplied its terror partner with funds, plans, intelligence and weapons. The basic mistake was a soft, accommodating policy toward Iran and its terrorist proxies Still, the US played a role – a combination of bumbling incompetence and fundamental policy errors

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

When naivety meets terror

On Monday evening a service of remembrance was held in Arras cathedral in northern France. The congregation was there to pay its respects to Dominique Bernard, the teacher who was murdered by an Islamist at his school last Friday, not far from the cathedral. The service was led by Bishop Olivier Leborgne. ‘We don’t have all the answers, but we believe that peace is our future,’ he told the congregation. As worshippers lit candles, the choir sang ‘Jesus, the Christ, the inner light, don’t let the darkness speak to me’. The Libyan who knifed to death three gay men in a park in Reading didn’t have much fraternal feeling, nor

Seth J. Frantzman

What Israel can learn from the battle for Mosul

Israel’s fight against Hamas has been compared to the war against Isis between 2015 and 2019. That war was largely waged in Iraq and Syria, and one of the most important battles was the struggle to retake Mosul from the Islamists in 2017. The city and its outlying areas were home to two million people when Isis conquered it in the summer of 2014, and Isis had embedded itself within the local population. Around two million people live in Gaza today. It’s hard to distinguish Hamas from civilians. When the Iraqi offensive against Isis in Mosul began in October 2016, there were warnings about the threat to the civilians in the city. I covered

Max Jeffery Max Jeffery

‘It’s a necessity that the Middle East fears us’

Micah Goodman is done being nice and even-handed. He became a best-selling philosopher by telling Israelis that the Palestinians needed more freedom. He said if the West Bank had better roads and an airport and more land and fewer checkpoints, relations between Israelis and Palestinians would improve. There was a way through the stalemate, if only people worked together. But now he wants war. Goodman is rageful about what Hamas did to his Israeli brothers and sisters ‘It’s a necessity that the Middle East fears us’, Goodman says, calling from Jerusalem. ‘That Hezbollah gets a panic attack when it pronounces the word Israel. That in Iran they have a panic attack from the thought of a military interaction

Tuesday

Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

Putin will be hoping for gifts from Xi in Beijing

In the early hours of this morning, Vladimir Putin touched down in Beijing to attend the third forum of the Belt and Road initiative (BRI) at Xi Jinping’s invitation. The trip is clearly important to Putin: it is just the second time that he has left Russia, and the first time travelling beyond the former Soviet Union, since the international criminal court (ICC) issued a warrant for his arrest in March. Xi invited Putin to attend the forum back in March in a show of unity when the former visited Moscow just days after the ICC issued its warrant. At the time, the visit – during which both leaders were

Jake Wallis Simons Jake Wallis Simons

Calling a terrorist a terrorist

Last night, after a suspected Islamist fanatic gunned down two Swedish football fans in Brussels to ‘avenge Muslims’, the BBC ran a headline calling it a ‘terror’ attack. This should seem entirely unremarkable. After all, it was a terror attack, so the language had the benefit of being accurate. The problem, of course, is that the corporation has a policy of refusing to describe the butchers of Hamas in the same terms.  It is true that the BBC amended the headline pretty quickly after realising its error. The broadcaster has insisted in its guidelines that its journalists should use descriptive terms like ‘bomber’, ‘attacker’, ‘gunman’, ‘kidnapper’, ‘insurgent’ and ‘militant’ by default. As John

Andrew Tettenborn

Donald Tusk’s victory will only please Brussels

Change in Poland looks likely. A second exit poll gives the ruling Law and Justice party (PiS) the most votes, but not enough to form a majority. The nativist right-wing party Konfederacja might’ve helped them form a coalition, but even combined the two parties still don’t have the numbers. Ex-Eurocrat Donald Tusk, who leads Civic Platform (KO), says he has built a coalition with Lewica, on the left, and Third Way (TD), conservatives, that can govern Poland. The result is not particularly good for the Polish people, or for Europe, but the European Commission in Brussels, and progressives on the Continent generally, will be delighted. Brussels benefits twice over from Tusk’s

Svitlana Morenets Svitlana Morenets

Is Russia’s latest offensive faltering?

Russia’s latest offensive has exacted a heavy toll on its forces. They have lost 127 tanks, 239 armoured personnel vehicles and 161 artillery systems in the past week, according to Kyiv, with the casualties reaching more than 3,000 military personnel. Vladimir Putin is trying to change the narrative, framing Russian forces’ actions as ‘active defence’ rather than ‘active combat operations’. While Putin tries to temper expectations of major frontline gains, the battle for Avdiivka persists, albeit with waning intensity. ‘I hope that these dirtbags who settled in Avdiivka will be levelled with three-ton bombs in a similar way Israel is levelling Gaza right now’, said Sergey Mardan, a Russian state

Monday

Ross Clark Ross Clark

How has Britain avoided a recession?

For the past 18 months, the UK economy has been stuck in the purgatory of an eternally predicted but non-arriving recession. The Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR), Bank of England, and the IMF have been among those to have predicted recessions that have not – yet – happened. But now, for what it is worth (which, to judge by the history of economic forecasting, is not much), one often-pessimistic body has stuck its neck out and said that Britain will avoid a recession. The EY Item Club has upgraded its forecast for economic growth across 2023 from 0.4 per cent to 0.6 per cent. Next year, it says that growth

Anna Richards

Poland’s rejection of conservatism isn’t quite as it seems

Poland looks set to head into a month of intense coalition-building. The exit poll for the country’s parliamentary election on Sunday showed Jarosław Kaczyński’s Law and Justice party with the single biggest result of 36.8 per cent, but it still fell short of being able to form a government by itself. Donald Tusk’s Civic Coalition gained 31.6 per cent of the vote, followed by the Third Way with 13 per cent, the Left with 8.6 per cent, and Konfederacja with 6.2 per cent of the vote, respectively. The late poll released around 8 a.m. Polish time, which took account of around half of the election’s overall result, remained broadly consistent

Limor Simhony Philpott

Netanyahu’s greatest failure

Over the weekend, the IDF confirmed that it killed the Hamas terrorist who commanded the attack on Israel a week earlier. It was later disclosed that the terrorist was arrested by Israel in 2005 for abducting and killing Israelis. He was released in 2011 by Netanyahu’s government in return for a captive Israeli soldier abducted in 2006 as part of a prisoner exchange deal. Netanyahu knew that Hamas received money, weapons and training from Iran The deal included the release of over 1,000 prisoners, many of them dangerous terrorists who returned to Gaza and rose through the ranks of Hamas. This controversial agreement exemplifies Netanyahu’s failed policy of containment and

David Cohen

Is New Zealand about to return to the world stage?

After six years of Labour party rule in New Zealand, the country’s foreign policy brings to mind the line about everything being at sea except the fleet. While the conservative National party of prime-minister-elect Christopher Luxon won on familiar-sounding domestic problems – galloping consumer prices, spiking interest rates and urban crime – the importance of foreign policy was not that far away.   For decades, New Zealand has made much of its independent foreign policy stance Luxon, a former airline boss, has hinted that he will be on board the diplomatic jet as soon as he has finished hammering out a coalition agreement. While the National party mustered an emphatic majority on

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

France’s teachers are scared

Rarely has the publication of a book been so providential. The Teachers Are Scared was released in France last Wednesday, written by Jean-Pierre Obin, a former teacher who rose to become the General Inspector of France’s National Education.   Two days later, Dominique Bernard was stabbed to death in his school in Arras. The man arrested on suspicion of his murder is a young Islamist of Chechen origin, the same profile as the extremist who killed Samuel Paty in 2020.   Two dead in three years, and France’s teachers live in fear that there will be more Two teachers murdered in three years. No wonder, as Obin states, ‘80 per

Dalibor Rohac

Law and Justice has lost. Where does Poland go now?

If it continues to hold, the likely electoral victory of Poland’s opposition last night is good news for all those concerned by the health of Polish democracy. In a recent piece in The Atlantic, Anne Applebaum painted a dire picture of creeping state capture, suggesting that in some ways, ‘Poland already [resembled] an autocracy,’ and eloquently arguing why the election campaign was ‘neither free nor fair.’  She has a point. Yet, notwithstanding the ruling party’s vicious and paranoia-driven campaign, the election was bound to be a highly competitive one. But even if the Law and Justice Party (PiS) won enough mandates to form a government, it would hardly be in a position to

Seth J. Frantzman

Israel is trapped in a dilemma

Hamas’s attack was designed to massacre as many civilians as possible, while also striking at Israeli military posts along the Gaza border. Hamas knew that 7 October was going to be the biggest attack in its history, even if it didn’t know that it would be able to lay waste to 20 border communities, causing 50,000 to evacuate and leading to the deaths of 1,300. As the war grows and Iranian-backed groups begin to threaten a wider conflict, it’s worth looking at what might come next. To understand that we need to know how Hamas got to this point and what are its plans for the region.   If Israel

Sunday

Helen Dale

Why Australia’s Voice vote failed

Since 1999, asking how many referendums Australia has had – then how many have passed – has been a pair of standard pub quiz questions. Everyone knew we’d had 44 since Federation in 1901 and only eight had ever passed. Well, questioners in pubs across the country will have to make a minor update. Australia has now had 45 referendums, for a meagre harvest of eight changes to its written constitution. The Voice to parliament has been voted down even more comprehensively than the Republic was in 1999. It lost in every state and one of the country’s two sparsely populated territories. If it were possible to kill it any

Joe Bedell-Brill

Sunday shows round-up: Israel defends the Gaza siege

This week’s political shows were dominated by the Israel-Palestine conflict, as Israel prepares for a land, sea and air assault on Gaza. Israel has said it will not supply water, fuel or electricity to the region unless Hamas releases its hostages and has instructed the people of Gaza to head south to avoid the imminent attack. A humanitarian disaster looms in an already densely populated area, and Victoria Derbyshire asked Israeli government adviser Mark Regev to respond to allegations that the actions of Israel could be breaking international humanitarian law and even amount to war crimes. Regev denied the allegations but he implied that Israel would target civilian zones because

Ian O’Doherty

Ireland’s troubling response to the Israel attacks

It’s a widely known secret within Israeli diplomatic circles that Ireland is seen as something of a lost cause.  While the Irish left is quick to react with fury to any accusations of anti-Semitism, insisting instead that they are merely opposed to Zionism and the Israeli government’s policies, sometimes that seems a distinction without a difference. This week has certainly been one of those times.  The Irish like to pride themselves on their internationalist outlook, but as a frustrated Israeli diplomat once informed me, the Irish are ‘Jew blind’  As the true horrors of what happened in Israel began to emerge this weekend, I naively remarked to my wife that

Austin Williams

Israel’s war with Gaza has exposed China’s impotence

Only last week, China was pushing itself forward to be the regional eminence grise in the Middle East, the powerbroker driving renewed Palestine-Israeli peace talks. In August this year, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi said that Chinese-mediated detente was driving a ‘wave of reconciliation’ in the Middle East. China’s inflated sense of its influence in the region came to a juddering halt in the light of the horrific attacks on Israel by Hamas militants last weekend. As a self-declared mediator in the region, China refused to condemn the Isis-style barbarity of Hamas, instead choosing to chide Israel for refusing to enter talks. It called for both sides ‘to remain calm

Saturday

Terry Barnes

The crushing defeat of Australia’s divisive Voice referendum

Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese, urged his fellow Australians to take ‘the opportunity to make history’ today. And they did, but not in the way that Albanese had so fervently hoped. His government’s referendum, which aimed to change the country’s constitution to entrench an Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander advisory voice to Australia’s parliament and executive government, was defeated by a majority of voters in all Australian states. The final margin, 59 per cent to 41 per cent between Yes and No, was not just decisive. It was a landslide of resounding proportions, almost a mirror reversal of the polled support for the Voice as recently as April. The biggest