World

Mark Galeotti

The misconception about Putin’s big red nuclear button

There is a common misconception that the leaders of nuclear states have a ‘red button’ that can unleash Armageddon. As Vladimir Putin continues to hint at the use of non-strategic (‘tactical’) nuclear weapons in Ukraine, there is some comfort in the knowledge that it is not so easy. Ironically, launching the kind of strategic nuclear missiles whose use would likely spiral into global destruction is somewhat easier than deploying the smaller weapons which – however vastly unlikely – could conceivably be used in Ukraine. These lower-yield warheads would need to be reconditioned in one of the 12 ‘Object S’ arsenals across Russia holding them, and then transported to one of

‘In Russia, there’s just emptiness’: An interview with a Putin draft dodger

Thousands of Russians are fleeing from Putin’s forced mobilisation. To escape from a call-up – and probable death sentence – on the frontlines of Ukraine, men and women are leaving behind their friends, families and possessions. They must dodge patrols and mobile check points at the borders to catch those trying to evade the call up. The lucky ones make it out. But even once these people have escaped Putin’s clutches, the terror and fear endures. I met one of these men, Maxim, in a bar in Tbilisi, Georgia. He and his wife had just fled from Russia, after Putin’s ‘partial mobilisation’ order of 21 September. Though it is now well into October,

Lisa Haseldine

Can Putin successfully drag Belarus into war with Ukraine?

Putin’s war in Ukraine is not going his way. As the screw tightens on him, what options does he have left up his sleeve? There remains, of course, the possibility that Putin could, at some point, choose to deploy nuclear weapons – he himself has threatened this enough times. But there is also Belarus. Controlled by Alexandr Lukashenko, currently in his sixth term as president thanks to an election in 2020 rigged in his favour with Putin’s help, the country has sat on the fringes of the war since it began. On Monday, as Putin launched his latest attack on Ukraine, Belarus announced that, together with Russia, it was deploying a joint regional

The sorry state of Turkish football

Pity the fans of Trabzonspor, a football club from Turkey’s Black Sea region. In May, the team was crowned champions of the Super Lig, Turkey’s answer to the Premier League, for the sixth time in their history. Three months later, they lost to FC Copenhagen in the Champions’ League play-offs meaning that, for the first time in 27 years, no Turkish team will play in the tournament. Trabzonspor’s defeat was a drop in a wider malaise. The Turkish game has been in decline for a decade, battered by mismanagement, political interference and the devaluation of the Turkish lira, which is worth just one-eighth against the euro what it was in

Svitlana Morenets

Ukraine braces itself for Russia’s cold war

So far this week, 128 Russian missiles have been fired at Ukraine. Half were intercepted by air defences, according to figures from Ukrainian authorities, but all too many of the others hit their target: power stations. This is a new phase in war, an anti-humanitarian campaign to cut supplies of water, electricity and leave the notoriously cold Ukrainian winter to do its worst.  ‘Ukraine is about to face the hardest winter in all the years of independence,’ said Volodymyr Zelensky in one of his nightly addresses to the nation. About a third of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure has been hit by Russian missiles and Iranian kamikaze drones. Kyiv had expected Russia

The sectarian shame of Ireland’s women’s football team

How bad is Irish nationalism’s sectarian problem? In the somewhat Panglossian world occupied by nationalist and republican activists and politicians – boosted by recent census and election results – it doesn’t really feature in the discussion.  At the recent ‘Ireland’s Future’ conference in Dublin, attended by thousands of people, the grubby stuff – the legacy of the Troubles and all – barely featured amidst the hopeful mood music and good vibes. The sight of the Republic of Ireland’s women’s football team celebrating their World Cup qualification in Glasgow earlier this week with the pro-IRA chant of ‘Oh, Ah, Up the ‘RA” – a line taken from a Wolfe Tones song –

What does the 6 January subpoena mean for Trump?

Poor Donald Trump. The 6 January committee has subpoenaed him. The New York attorney general is seeking to put the kibosh on his new Trump II organisation. The Supreme Court has rejected his bid to stymie the Mar-a-Lago investigation. What next? Will it turn out that Jared or even — gasp! — Ivanka has been ratting him out to the feds about his hoarding of secret documents at Mar-a-Lago? Far from ending with his ousting from the White House, the Trump show has become an unending pageant of new plot twists. The central actor remains Trump and Trump alone, intent on hogging the spotlight in one way or another. Far

Iranians have turned against the mullahs’ empire building

Iran’s protestors are showing immense courage. That is a given. But the reasons why are worth spelling out. Not only do they have the bravery to demonstrate against a theocratic dictatorship which has veiled women against their will for over forty years; they also protest in the full knowledge that the regime has already killed many thousands of activists in Iran and across the Middle East. The protestors face a leviathan. They are up against the very heart of an expansionist empire. From the very beginning, the leaders of Iran’s Islamic Revolution, which took power in 1979, conceived of their mission as a world-wide one. It was their job to

Philip Patrick

Hard to swallow: the unjustified hype around Japanese food

Tokyo After 23 years in Japan, having tried everything from yatai (street food) to deep-fried globe fish in a kaiseki (traditional) restaurant, I have come to the conclusion that Japanese food is overrated. It is rarely less than perfectly presented, and it can be superb – but it can also be bland and homogenous. Part of the problem is that much of what delights the Japanese about their food is unrelated to its actual taste. If British food, in the bad old days at least, was simply fuel, Japanese food has always been, to some extent, art. A high-end Japanese meal is the equivalent of a Wagnerian gesamtkunstwerk, with the

Why America’s cannabis experiment failed

Indiana Once cannabis legalisation in the US started being taken seriously a decade ago, the majority of liberal Americans supported it. It just seemed like common sense. No longer would pot users have to rely on street dealers, so criminal organisations would wither away. At the same time, states would benefit from billions in tax revenue. Booze, after all, was once held under the thumb of prohibition in the US, bringing about 13 years of black market activity and gang violence, which all ended when prohibition was repealed in 1933. The alcohol trade is now one of the leading earners in America and contributes roughly $260 billion to the economy.

Kremlin crack-up: who’s out to get Putin?

The soldier with the Kalashnikov wasn’t happy. Neither were the hundreds of comrades who had chosen him as the spokesman for their angry complaints as they milled about on a train platform somewhere in Russia. ‘There are 500 of us, we are armed, but we haven’t been assigned to any unit,’ the newly mobilised soldier complained on a video that went viral earlier this month. ‘We’ve been living worse than farm animals for a week… Nobody needs us, we’ve had absolutely no training.’ Other soldiers, most of them masked, chipped in with more grievances. ‘The officers treat us like animals,’ shouted one. ‘We’ve spent a fortune on buying food for

China’s great leap backward

This month should have marked the end of Xi Jinping’s time as leader of the Chinese Communist party. The twice-a-decade party congress is being staged in Beijing. It is a grand event at which a new General Secretary is meant to be either nominated (five years in advance) or given power. But Xi has changed all that. He has sidelined all opposition and is now settling down to his 11th year in office – fully intent on ruling for life. The world’s second-largest economy will therefore this weekend be reconfirmed as an outright dictatorship. Ten years ago there was a fatal car crash in Beijing involving a Ferrari driven by

Steerpike

EU chief blasts Brussels’ diplomats

The verdict is in: European Union diplomats are useless. But this isn’t the view of one of the EU’s usual detractors. It’s the assessment of Josep Borrell, Brussels’ very own foreign affairs chief. In a damning briefing to the European External Action Service, Borrell said he was fed up finding out information from newspapers before hearing it from his own officials. ‘Quickly for the European standard means a couple of months,’ said Borrell ‘This is not a moment when we are going to send flowers to all of you saying that you are beautiful, you work very well and we are very happy, we are one big family,’ Borrell said, before launching into his furious rebuke

Putin’s acolytes are boxing him in

As Russia continues to get routed in eastern Ukraine – losing territory, machinery and personnel to an emboldened Ukrainian counteroffensive – infighting has intensified in the Kremlin. Looking for someone to blame, the various factions are increasingly attacking Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and his Ministry, and seeking an escalation of hostilities in Ukraine.  When Russia lost the town of Lyman less than 24 hours after illegally annexing four regions that included it, Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov called for a tactical nuclear strike on Ukraine. He also lashed out against the General Staff, and threatened to send Central Military District Commander Alexander Lapin to the front to ‘cleanse his shame in blood’. While

The West is on the road to energy ruin

Since the beginning of the Ukraine war and the sanctions it triggered, energy prices have skyrocketed. Liz Truss has warned that soaring energy bills are a ‘price worth paying’ in order to stand up against Vladimir Putin. President Joe Biden has called this year’s rocketing bills ‘Putin’s price hike.’ Margrethe Vestager, vice president of the European Commission, has encouraged Europeans to take short, cold showers to conserve energy. ‘When you turn off the water, say ‘Take that, Putin!’’ she urged. But are the high prices really Putin’s fault? He didn’t sanction himself, after all. It’s the West that chose to cut itself off from the Russian fossil fuels upon which it had

Who really blew up the Kerch Bridge?

Who blew up the Kerch bridge? One of President Zelensky’s most senior advisers, Mikhailo Podolyak, has suggested that the Russians did it themselves. ‘Isn’t it obvious who made an explosion?’ he asked on Twitter. ‘Truck arrived from RF (Russian Federation).’ Officially, the Ukrainian government is saying nothing: its secret service has said it will remain quiet until after the war. Zelensky himself has so far refrained from commenting on the attack, except to say that the ‘weather has been cloudy in Crimea.’ If indeed they were responsible, why would the Ukrainians not claim responsibility for a sabotage attack of high sophistication that caused widespread jubilation in Ukraine and across the world? The

Mark Galeotti

Putin’s attack dog brings a terrible type of warfare to Ukraine

The Crimean Bridge bombing was an unwelcome gift to both Vladimir Putin – who had celebrated his 70th birthday the day before – and the new overall commander of the ‘Special Military Operation,’ General Sergei Surovikin. Today, they returned the favour with a missile bombardment of Kyiv and other major cities of the like not seen since the start of the war. Missiles and kamikaze drones hit a range of targets, some perhaps considered strategic in the loosest sense such as bridges and railway hubs, but most entirely civilian. The west of the country, which has largely avoided the worst of Russian attacks, also came in for an indiscriminate pounding.

Svitlana Morenets

Putin’s blitz marks the next phase in Ukraine’s war

Since the attack on the Kerch bridge in Crimea, the world has been awaiting Putin’s answer. It came this morning in the form of Russian missiles fired over Ukrainian cities. To add to this, Belarusian media is also reporting the deployment of Belarusian troops to the conflict for the first time. Of the 83 Russian missiles fired into the country, 43 have been intercepted by Ukraine’s air defence system (which has also intercepted dozens of Iranian Shahed-136 kamikaze drones) but Kyiv has been hit. Lviv, Dnipro, Kharkiv and Odesa have also been targeted – large and small cities are under attack. The number of dead and wounded is unknown. All

Russian terror bombing arrives in Ukraine

It depends on when you are reading this but it’s possible that as you do, Russian missiles are still falling on Kyiv. The Ukrainian capital, and cities across the country, have been subject to a devastating missile barrage last night and this morning. The attacks on Kyiv are intended to create nothing but terror. Missiles fell in succession on civilian areas: children’s playgrounds, ordinary business areas, office buildings. They arrived at the height of the morning rush hour, hoping to kill as many commuters and families as possible, and the drumbeat has continued after that. Residential and business areas of the Ukrainian capital that had broadly been spared missile and