World

Russian roulette: what ‘tactical’ nuclear war would mean

In 1861 an American seed-drill designer named Richard Jordan Gatling created a super-weapon that he believed would bring an end to war. With his hand-cranked, ten-barrel machine-gun, Gatling did for warfare what his contemporary Isaac Singer had done for sewing, bringing mechanisation to a former handcraft. Gatling’s gun fired more than 200 rounds a minute – as much as an entire battalion of soldiers with muzzle-loading muskets. In his memoirs, Gatling wrote that ‘if a four-man machine-gun crew could kill a thousand infantrymen in five minutes’ then perhaps the terror created by such a weapon would ‘discourage war altogether’. Robert Oppenheimer, the creator of the first atom bomb, was motivated

Kate Andrews

The US midterm results are a wake-up call for the Republicans

There was no ‘red wave’ in America last night. This became obvious fairly early on, when congressional seats the Republicans hoped to pick up in New England failed to flip. Many on the American right had made the assumption that seats won by Democrats by a few percentage points in 2020 would easily turn red. This turned out to be wrong. In fact, there has been very little turnover in the House of Representatives or the Senate in either direction so far. The election map looks stuck in time, a close replica of how politics panned out two years ago, with both Democrats and Republicans holding their seats. Yet much

Why the red wave never crested in the US midterms

The 2022 midterm election was supposed to be a red wave. Instead, it turned out to be a night of razor-thin victories for Republicans, disappointment for many Donald Trump-backed candidates and a sigh of relief from Democrats. It was nothing approaching the wave some polling suggested. And it raises fundamental questions about the direction of the GOP in an era of party factionalism. There are two fundamentals that consistently indicate the outcomes of most midterms: the approval rating of the president and the right track/wrong track question on the direction of the United States. Both indicators strongly showed a Republican wave was imminent, leading the overwhelming majority of prognosticators, myself

Freddy Gray

Midterms: No red wave, America is still very divided

Is it a red wave? A ripple? Or a trickle? Nobody quite knows. However, what looks certain is that the Republican blow out that many right wing pundits were anticipating has not happened. Crucially, the Democrats have won the crunch Senate race in Pennsylvania. John Fetterman, the man who had a stroke just a few months ago, defeated Mehmet Oz, who the late polls suggested would win.  Elsewhere, it turns out the polls were right — the Senate races are incredibly tight. It looks as if a dramatic late surge for Adam Laxalt in Nevada means the Republicans should squeak another Senate victory for there. So … over to Georgia,

Seven things to watch out for in the midterm elections

The sting music has blared, the media hype is in, and the midterms are set to be the most important American elections in nearly two years. Now, as normal people head to the polls, it’s time for us political junkies to jumper-cable our brains straight into the vote tallies. You, too, can pretend to know what will happen before the results are even in. Here are seven things to watch tonight as the makeup of Congress is decided. The Pennsylvania Senate race The most ballyhooed Senate contest really is worth all the attention it’s getting. For some of us, choosing between stroke victim John Fetterman and Oprah houseplant Mehmet Oz

Ross Clark

Britain would be wrong to pay climate change reparations

Is it right that Britain should pay £1.5 billion for developing countries to adapt to floods, cyclones and rising sea levels as Rishi Sunak has announced at Cop27? Absolutely. That is what aid money is for: to help countries cope with natural disasters. If you can spend some of this money in advance of those disasters so that these countries might better be able to cope with them when they do occur, then so much the better. Would Britain be right, on the other hand, to pay reparations to developing countries on the basis that the industrial revolution started in Britain and we, therefore, have high historic carbon emissions? Absolutely not, and

Freddy Gray

How worried are the Democrats about the US midterms?

‘There are two things that are important in politics,’ said the 19th century senator Mark Hanna. ‘The first is money and I can’t remember what the second one is.’ The maxim remains true in 2022. Public polling is all well and good, and useful in its way. Yet in a country as sprawling and complex and bitterly divided as the United States of America, and with so much information available online at everyone’s fingertips, polls can easily be used to suggest whatever you want.  Political parties inevitably lie about their electoral prospects and hide their rather more sophisticated (and less biased) internal polling. But campaigns can’t altogether conceal their spending

The Republicans will come for the FBI after the midterms

As one commentator noted, Tuesday’s red wave in the midterm elections is going to be like the red elevator scene in The Shining. I had to look that one up but, yep, it seems like an appropriate metaphor for what is about to happen. Some hapless scribe called Emily Oster recently wrote an article for the Atlantic called ‘Let’s declare a pandemic amnesty’. That’s not likely, Emily. The rules introduced by power-hungry apparatchiks throughout the land destroyed businesses, ruined nearly two years of education and socialisation for children, made it impossible to visit your dying grandmother, go to the beach or to church or celebrate your favourite nephew’s birthday. The spectacle of the coercive power of the

Philip Patrick

Football’s problems run far beyond the Qatar World Cup

Are there any redeeming features of the Qatar World Cup? Perhaps one: the tournament has a sane and logical format. Having 32 teams reduced to 16 after the group stage, followed by a straight knock out is easy to understand and should produce an exciting third round of games and plenty of thrills thereafter. But if you do have the stomach for Qatar 2022 savour this comforting crumb: it could be the last time a major tournament is organised in a way that makes sense from a footballing – rather than a revenue generating – standpoint. For let’s look ahead to USA 2026. There might not be human rights concerns

How Matt Hancock turned a failure into success

Eating kangaroo penis on live TV will not be the first gut wrenching challenge of Matt Hancock’s career. At the end of a long day in September 2007, Matt walked into my office looking like his dog, cat and pet parrot had all been shot. He closed the door behind him and said: ‘We have a big problem.’ It was the eve of the Conservative Party conference in Blackpool and Matt, myself and the entire opposition team had been working around the clock to prepare a package of game-changing policies to announce. The secrecy of those policies was mission critical. Indeed it’s fair to say that David Cameron’s ambitions to

William Nattrass

Serbia’s membership talks should embarrass the EU

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz looked on with uneasy pride as leaders from six western Balkan aspiring EU members gathered in Berlin to sign new agreements this Thursday. British Foreign Secretary James Cleverly also attended the summit, which aims to encourage friendlier ties in this fractious region.  Agreements on the mutual recognition of ID documents and educational qualifications to facilitate travel and work should have been a moment for the Balkans to celebrate. But the mood was dampened as back in Serbia troops were deployed to the Kosovo border, the army’s alert level was raised, and a drone was shot down near military

Fraser Nelson

Is now the time to make peace in Ukraine?

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February, British press and public opinion has been firmly behind Volodymyr Zelensky. But is it healthy to look at any subject so uncritically? If a year or more of fighting will achieve nothing, then why prolong the bloodshed? The How To Academy has just held a debate about this delicate subject in London. The motion was ‘Now is the Time To Make Peace in Ukraine’. I went along, with some of the Spectator team. Our colleague Svitlana Morenets, who writes our weekly Ukraine email (sign up here), was speaking against the motion. It was a fascinating debate. Peter Hitchens, opening for the motion, said

North Korea’s nuclear ambitions are growing faster than ever

While some people start the day with a bowl of cereal, North Korea chose to greet Thursday with the launch of a ballistic missile. The missile, believed to have intercontinental capabilities, failed mid-flight, but it was nonetheless significant. North Korea fired it on the second consecutive day of weapons testing held by the country this week: on those two days it launched more missiles than it had done in the entirety of 2017, with over 23 missiles and over 100 artillery shells on Wednesday alone. North Korea’s missile test caused international havoc. South Korean news broadcasts were interrupted by air raid sirens urging the population to seek shelter; Japan issued

Max Jeffery

Meet Israel’s 21-year-old TikTok firebrand

Hadar Muchtar is angry because Benjamin Netanyahu has won a sixth term as prime minister of Israel and she hasn’t won anything. Her party didn’t get a seat in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament, and it’s the fault of brainless old people. ‘I think that the citizens are stupid and we’re going to pay for that’, she says. ‘I don’t care about the government. I think they’re all sh*t. They’re horrible people all of them.’ Muchtar founded her party, Tzeirim Boarim, or Youth on Fire, to protest rising prices. She’s a 21-year-old from Kiryat Ono, near Tel Aviv, who became famous on TikTok for posting videos of her comparing the prices of

Germany needs to break its dependence on China

Back in February, Olaf Scholz gave one of the most important speeches in his country’s post-Cold War history. In it, the German Chancellor announced that the Russian invasion of Ukraine had produced a zeitenwende, or turning point, and that German policy must adapt. No longer could his nation live on the so-called peace dividend that the West has enjoyed for nearly three decades, and no longer could Germany be dependent on cheap Russian gas. Within three days of Vladimir Putin’s invasion Berlin had U-turned and promised to give Ukraine lethal aid, to spend a one-off $110 billion on the Bundeswehr (the German military), and to spend 2 per cent of GDP on defence. The failed

Melanie McDonagh

Why Albanians come to Britain

A friend of mine works in a surgery in London where lots of asylum seekers go for treatment. The caseload is a snapshot of current trends in illegal immigration, and at present that means lots of Albanians.  Yep, that’s the migrant influx across the Channel we’ve been hearing so much about, and which the Albanian PM, Edi Rama, has been blaming on the British government: ‘It’s not about Albanians or aliens or gangsters, but it’s about failed policies on borders and on crime,’ he said this week.  Three cases give an idea of what’s going on. One patient was a nurse from Tirana, Albania’s capital, but had found it impossible

The wheels are coming off the Dutch green revolution

Another day, another success in the courts for Dutch environmentalists. This week, the country’s highest court, the Council of State, decided that building is no longer exempt from EU environment protection rules. In one of the world’s most densely-populated countries, where new homes are badly needed – and a 900,000 home building spree had just been announced – this spells trouble: within hours, building association Bouwend Nederland called it a ‘tragedy’ and experts warned it will exacerbate the Netherlands’ housing crisis. This isn’t the first time the green lobby has enjoyed a victory that leads to confusion and chaos. Farmers continue to vent their fury at plans aimed at reducing emissions that involve cutting livestock numbers and reducing intensive farming. They recognise that

Lisa Haseldine

‘Wrong visit, wrong time’: What Germany makes of Scholz’s Beijing trip

This afternoon, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz goes to China. His one-day visit to Beijing is the first by a democratic leader since the outbreak of the Covid pandemic nearly three years ago. But before he has even touched down on Chinese soil, Scholz’s trip is going down badly back home.  ‘It’s the wrong visit at the wrong time,’ declared the broadsheet newspaper Die Welt. Scholz will be the first Western leader to meet with President Xi since he secured his unprecedented third term in power. For many China-watchers, Xi’s consolidated rule and zombification of the country’s Communist party marks a watershed moment for the country – not one, according to

Why King Bibi’s return is bad news for Israel

Israel’s longest serving leader, Benjamin Netanyahu, is back. His return confirms once again an iron clad rule of Israeli politics: never write Bibi off. A few years ago, his opponents briefly thought they had vanquished him for good.   Netanyahu lost an election in 2021 and two great American supporters, the late media tycoon Sheldon Adelson and former president Donald Trump, were gone. Netanyahu was under investigation for corruption in a wide-ranging criminal probe which he sought unsuccessfully to undermine. It seemed as if Bibi could soon exchange the prime minister’s residence for jail, and the TV make-up and dark suits he always wears for prison uniform.  But that is not what