World

Gavin Mortimer

Will the Tories copy Le Pen?

In the three years since its landslide victory in the 2019 election, the Conservative party has shed nearly seven million voters. The astonishing statistic was revealed in a report by the centre right think-tank Onward, released on the same day Rishi Sunak became Prime Minister; at least he’s in no doubt as to the scale of his challenge. To stave off disaster, Onward’s Will Tanner (a former adviser to Theresa May while she was PM) said the Tories must aim to hit a ‘sweet spot’: by appealing to the six in ten voters who are ‘left of centre on the economy, but…socially and culturally conservative’. This year Marine Le Pen’s

Russia’s ‘hunger plan’ is back

Until this week, the prospect of global famine had disappeared from the headlines, but earlier in Russia’s war against Ukraine, a sinister possibility had begun to take shape. Ukraine is a breadbasket. Its produce feeds the world. And Russia, knowing this, hatched a plan. Its soldiers could wreck Ukrainian farmland and kill its farmers. Russians would steal and sell all the Ukrainian grain it could. And the Black Sea – a vital artery through which most of Ukraine’s food exports travelled – would be blockaded by the Russian navy. Food shipments would not be let through. The world would starve, Ukraine’s economy would suffer, and – in Vladimir Putin’s mind

Gareth Roberts

Does Elon Musk have the stomach for this fight?

Appropriately for Twitter, the arrival of Elon Musk has been regarded by some as the coming of the antichrist and by others as the apotheosis of the messiah. I think both sides may be getting a little overexcited. This is not a person whose movements can be anticipated with any accuracy. Musk’s defining characteristic is that he is erratic, as his hokey cokey-style acquisition of the social media platform itself displayed. This added to previous oddities such as insinuating that a cave rescuer in Thailand was a paedophile. There’s ample evidence that ‘Chief Twit’ Musk has the social skills, interests and humour of a 14-year-old boy. His sink gag as

Lula faces an uphill battle in Brazil

The Brazilian presidential election yesterday was billed as one of the most consequential in decades – not just for the country but for the future of the planet. Anyone paying attention to either the climate crisis or the Amazon, the world’s largest rainforest, could hardly quibble with that description. The good news is that the Amazon can expect a breather. After four years of Jair Bolsonaro’s often destructive policies, the right-wing incumbent is being replaced. His leftist challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva squeaked home with 50.9 per cent of the vote in a bitter contest that ended with the smallest winning margin since the end of the military dictatorship

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan is coming

This month, at the 20th National Party Congress of the Chinese Communist party, Xi Jinping was elected to a third term as chairman. ‘The New Mao’ – so has rung the common refrain. It’s an entirely accurate assessment. The very existence of the two-term-limit precedent that Xi has now broken was set by Mao’s successor, Deng Xiaoping, in 1982. The reasoning behind the term limit was to prevent the cult-of-personality chaos that Mao and his sycophants had whipped up during his untrammelled, ruler-for-life tenure at the helm of the Chinese state. Deng wanted to make China rich enough so its citizens wouldn’t care that they were not free. To do that, he needed law and

Philip Patrick

Did lockdown contribute to Seoul’s Halloween tragedy?

At least 151 people were crushed or trampled to death in a narrow alley in the South Korean capital Seoul last night. That figure – which is expected to rise – makes it one of the worst peacetime disasters in the country’s history. President Yoon Suk-yeol has declared a national period of mourning. Both Rishi Sunak and Joe Biden have sent messages of sympathy. The victims, many of whom were young women, were celebrating Halloween in the Itaewon entertainment district of the South Korean capital. Details of exactly what happened are sketchy, but it seems that a huge mass of people poured in to one of the area’s narrow alleyways,

Is Biden finally finished with Mohammed bin Salman?

Saudi Arabia’s energy minister had some cheeky words for the Biden administration this week: don’t blame us for manipulating the oil markets, and start acting like grown-ups. Standing on stage at the Saudi-organised Future Investment Initiative, known as ‘Davos in the Desert’, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman laid into American officials. Not only was Washington responsible for where oil prices are today, but they were also selfishly expecting Saudi Arabia to sacrifice its own economic interests for the sake of the West’s foreign policy. ‘We keep hearing you “are with us or against us”, is there any room for “we are with the people of Saudi Arabia?”’ the kingdom’s top oil

Putin’s war has exacted a terrible toll on Ukraine

Putin badly miscalculated. The Russian army terribly underperformed. Kyiv has shown unexpected resilience in the face of what experts thought was far superior Russian firepower. This, we’re told, is the story of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and all of it is true. Vladimir Putin’s talk of a ‘dirty bomb’ is evidence of how badly the war is going for him. Russia has been taught a bitter lesson, one that other trigger-happy, self-proclaimed great powers would be wise to heed. But one part has been missed. For all of Russia’s difficulties, it is in a far better shape than Ukraine. Fighting has left Ukraine in ruin. Consider these eye-watering statistics: at

Putin’s war is tearing Russian families apart

Renata is a young paediatrician from St Petersburg who, since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, keeps crying at work. Her colleagues are baffled: why is she sobbing over Ukrainian deaths when she doesn’t have relatives there? She’s surrounded, she says, by ‘complete incomprehension’ from her fellow-doctors, ‘and I’m quietly going insane.’ Her mother Vinera, a school headteacher, advocates the war, believes the West has its eye on Russia’s ‘inexhaustible wealth’ and that it envies Russia’s people for their ‘spiritual’ values. Renata no longer goes home to visit Vinera: ‘I find her disgusting, she’s a hypocrite, I’m disgusted by her views.’ Galya is a violinist from Samara, locked in a failing marriage

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Elon Musk’s Twitter takeover isn’t so bad

It’s finally happened. After months of legal wrangling, Twitter has fallen. All hail King Elon; the ‘bird is freed’. The executives running the show have been defenestrated, including CEO Parag Agrawal and head of safety Vijaya Gadda. Around the virtual watering hole, skittish packs of activists watch nervously as the ground shakes; Donald Trump, the biggest of the Twitter big beasts is set to make his return. And isn’t the wailing glorious? Well yes, but. Basing your politics around things your opponents dislike is a trap that it’s easy to fall into. Conservatism is not a negative image of progressivism, but an alternative philosophical perspective with its own positive vision

Lisa Haseldine

Putin’s house of mirrors

If there is one thing we have learnt since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February, it is that very little he says bears any relation to the truth. For nearly a year, the Russian President has been constructing his own house of mirrors: his rhetoric gives no indication of what is fact or fiction, bluff or candour, hard truth or hot air. Each speech he gives further distorts the reality he presents. Yesterday, Putin spoke at an event held by the Moscow-based think tank Valdai Discussion Club. The theme of his speech was ‘A post-hegemonic world: Justice and security for everyone’. Whose hegemony does this refer to? That of the

Will Putin use Belarus to attack Ukraine?

For the past month, Russian soldiers have been gathering in Belarus. Thousands of conscripts are assembling. Meanwhile, in Ukraine, Russia’s war effort goes from bad to worse: Kyiv’s forces are continuing to advance in Kherson. Does Putin think the build-up of forces in Belarus can help him turn the tide in his war? So far, Belarus’s involvement has been largely passive. The country’s dictator Aleksandr Lukashenko is allowing Russia to pelt Ukraine with missiles from behind its borders. Minsk also provided crucial safe passage to troops attacking the country from the north in February. But, for the most part, it has done its best to try and stay out of the war while

Gavin Mortimer

Why shouldn’t Macron meet Meloni?

One in four Italians who voted at last month’s election backed Giorgia Meloni’s conservative Brothers of Italy party – that is 7,302,517 men and women. Second in the general election was the centre-left Democratic party with 5,356,180 votes with 19 per cent. In other words, Meloni’s victory was resounding. Coming as it did after the brief premiership of the unelected Mario Draghi one might even call it a victory for democracy. Yet the western reaction to Italy electing its first female prime minister was overwhelmingly cold and aloof. The Prime Minister of France, Elisabeth Borne, for example, promised to keep a close eye on Meloni to ensure she respected Italy’s human rights

New York’s new normal

New York Ms Geniece Draper is a Noo Yawker who has been in the news lately. She is a 40-year-old with modern Bagelite manners, and by that I mean they are not exactly those of, say, C.Z. Guest or Babe Paley, two ladies who are no longer with us but whose presence in drawing rooms we could rather desperately do with. Ms Draper is angry as hell and has declared she will not take it any more. She was recently charged with grand larceny and petit larceny for snatching a wallet from a Manhattan man. Nothing strange about that: it’s an everyday occurrence in the city that never sleeps. In

Lisa Haseldine

A ‘workaholic and nerd’: What Russia makes of Rishi

‘Handsome, rich, lucky, traitor.’ That’s how the Russian broadsheet newspaper Kommersant chose to describe the new Prime Minister Rishi Sunak after he launched his leadership bid. In a biographical article charting his rise to power, the paper covers his childhood attending Winchester College – the ‘most important event of his life’ apparently – moving through his time at university and marriage, and into his entry into politics. The moniker of ‘traitor’ refers to his resignation from Boris Johnson’s cabinet in July this year before his own first leadership bid. Noting how different both prime ministers are, the paper states that ‘the strange thing is not that Sunak turned against Johnson,

Mark Galeotti

Is Putin preparing a nuclear strike?

Russia is peddling implausible tales of Ukrainian ‘dirty bombs’. Kyiv and the West are embarked on a campaign to counter this propaganda, and again the talk is of the risk of Moscow using weapons of mass destruction in Ukraine. And that’s the point. First of all, Russian Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu broke months of relative silence – with the West, at least – and called his British, American, French and Turkish counterparts. His main message was to assert, with no evidence in support of his claims, that Kyiv was preparing to use a dirty bomb. This is a conventional munition, around which is packed radioactive materials, which is dispersed when

Gavin Mortimer

Are Macron and Sunak heading for a beautiful bromance?

A penny for the thoughts of Emmanuel Macron on Saturday when it seemed Boris Johnson might once more occupy No. 10. Hasta la Vista, baby. Oh Mon Dieu, non! Macron’s opinion of the former PM is on record, and the French in general were aghast at the prospect of Boris back in charge. One newspaper asked its readers in an online poll if they would welcome a second dose of Johnson: of the 240,000 people who responded, three-quarters said no. There was a time when BoJo was all the rage in France. In the summer of 2021 he was more popular than Macron – not hard, admittedly, given his unpopularity

Why do Brazilian footballers like Bolsonaro?

There are weeks when Jair Bolsonaro dominates the headlines in Brazil and there are weeks when that honour goes to Neymar. Both men have been in the news this week, which is understandable given the run-off election for president is on 30 October, and the World Cup kicks off in less than a month. One plays to the far-right galleries, spends a lot of his time on social media, and is frequently defending himself against accusations of corruption. The other is the president. Most outside of Brazil, though, would find it odd that the news cycle in the last few days has been about the two of them together. Neymar

Ian Williams

The mystery of the Hu Jintao incident

A steward tries to lift Hu Jintao from his seat, but Hu doesn’t want to move. The former Communist party leader is sitting to the left of current boss Xi Jinping, and he reaches out to take Xi’s notes, but Xi moves Hu’s hand away and takes back the papers. The world’s cameras follow every move, as Hu is eventually raised to his feet. There are two stewards now, one holding him firmly under the arm, the other gesturing for him to leave. But Hu is clearly reluctant to go, leaning over and saying something to an impassive-looking Xi, who nods and gives a brief reply to Hu without looking

Steerpike

Watch: Xi’s predecessor marched out of CCP meeting

Is this the start of a new Xi Jinping purge? Earlier today, the former Chinese president Hu Jintao was manhandled and led out of the closing ceremony of the Communist party congress – watched on by delegates and the media. The 79-year-old is Xi Jinping’s immediate predecessor and was seated to his immediate left. A pair of stewards can be seen removing the seemingly distressed elder statesman as he tried to speak to Xi. Such shows of apparent disunity are rare within the CCP’s China, especially at heavily stage-managed events such as this. Earlier in the congress, two of Hu’s proteges, Li Keqiang and Wang Yang, failed to be re-elected