World

Wednesday

Jonathan Spyer

Israel has weakened Iran – but not destroyed it

With the ceasefire between Iran and Israel so far holding, a preliminary assessment of the 12-day campaign is now possible. Jerusalem and its US ally achieved a considerable amount. Iran’s deficiencies on a tactical level were laid bare. Structural flaws in Tehran’s strategy of war by proxy have been made apparent. Both the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes have been significantly damaged. The hands of the doomsday clock, which were getting close to midnight, have been vigorously pulled back.   Unlike the actual digital clock in Tehran’s Palestine Square, however, which was destroyed by Israeli ordnance during the campaign, the Iranian strategy for the destruction of Israel has not been comprehensively defeated. Nor does the regime appear

Tuesday

James Tidmarsh

Has Trump brought peace to the Congo?

It remains to be seen whether Trump’s ceasefire between Iran and Israel will hold, but on the other side of the world he has showcased his deal-making prowess in a very different conflict. In a few days, Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of Congo are set to sign a peace agreement, under US auspices, to halt the bloodshed in eastern Congo. The deal was classic Trump – blunt, transactional, and built on leverage. He applied pressure, offered incentives, and out of it came a deal. His approach delivered results where traditional diplomacy failed For years, Eastern Congo has been one of the most violent regions on earth. Earlier this year,

Edward Howell

Nato should not ignore Russia’s ‘coalition of murderers’

This week’s Nato summit could not come at a more pivotal moment. As recent months have shown, the challenges to contemporary global security are no longer limited to the individual threats posed by Moscow, Tehran, or Pyongyang. What makes the current situation even more concerning for the West is the multiple threats posed by the heightened bilateral and trilateral collaborations between these actors, alongside those with Beijing. Whilst the so-called CRINK (China, Russia, Iran, and North Korea) does not yet constitute any formal strategic alliance, it would be naïve and dangerous to dismiss their ties as merely superficial. On his visit to the United Kingdom on Monday, Volodymyr Zelensky called

Jason M. Brodsky

Trump shouldn’t blame Israel for the ceasefire skirmish

After President Trump announced a ceasefire between Israel and Iran on Monday, Iran launched missiles at the Jewish state. To justify this, Iran accused Israel of conducting an assault on Iranian territory until 9 a.m. on Tuesday, after the ceasefire went into effect. Later, Israel undertook a symbolic strike on a radar installation north of Tehran as a reprisal for its defiance of the agreement. President Trump, visibly angry, told reporters before he headed to today’s Nato summit that he was displeased with both countries, especially Israel as it ‘unloaded’ on Tehran right after he declared a ceasefire. Israel did unleash a thunderous final salvo against Iran in the final

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

As Donald Trump declares peace, the war goes on

Donald Trump’s presidency is often compared to a reality TV show. Yet that conceit barely captures the radical strangeness of his leadership. Trump is a hypnotist, a master of persuasion who tries to shape world events through CONFUSION, BIG BOMBS and CAPITAL LETTERS.  ‘THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!’ he announced in the early hours this morning.  How will Trump the peacemaker respond to such a clear abrogation of his demands? For an hour or so, it seemed as if Trump could be right. Iran and Israel did make the right noises, through the correct channels, about a cessation of fire. But then this morning,

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Will Iran seize this moment for revolution?

Last night began with dramatic news: the Islamic Republic of Iran had launched a volley of ballistic missiles at the US-run Al Udeid airbase in Qatar, a retaliatory gesture following the devastating American strikes on the Iranian regime’s nuclear facilities. In Washington, President Trump entered the National Security Council, according to some reports accompanied by the nuclear ‘football’. The world held its breath in what was turning into the highest-stakes game of chess. Soon it happened: Trump had indeed pressed the button and unleashed chaos and mayhem across the region. But it was not the one that launches missiles. Instead, it was the presidential CAPS LOCK. Trump took to social

Jawad Iqbal

Will Khamenei accept that it’s over?

It is a fair bet that Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s ‘so-called supreme leader’ in the words of president Trump, didn’t expect it to end like this. Holed up in a bunker somewhere in Tehran, exchanging messages with a small and ever-diminishing group of allies, and impotently raging against the West, namely America and Israel. Khamenei is no longer master of his own destiny What can the 86-year-old Khamenei, plagued by ill-health in recent years, really be thinking? He has ruled Iran with an iron fist for more than three decades, but is now reduced to cowering for his life underground. Just as humiliating must be the realisation that he owes his life to

Monday

Charlie Gammell

Why the US will probably strike Iran again

It was bound to happen. Leaving aside, for the moment, the burning question of whether the US strikes on Iran will have set back Tehran’s nuclear programme by weeks, months or years, this moment feels in many ways like an apotheosis of sorts. The Omega (or perhaps Alpha depending on your sense of ontology) of US attempts at talking to the Islamic Republic, a culmination of decades of frustration at the Ayatollah’s unique ability to talk peace and negotiation while murdering and destabilising. The Islamic Republic now has few good options The history of the Islamic Republic, from its brazen assassinations to the long-drawn out nuclear saga, is one in which the public face of the regime – suave diplomats and

Fabian Hoffmann

How the US bombed Iran’s nuclear sites

Over the weekend, the US Air Force attacked three nuclear sites in Iran in an operation codenamed ‘Midnight Hammer’. According to Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, Dan Caine, the strike was ‘designed to severely degrade Iran’s nuclear weapons infrastructure’. The operation involved seven B-2 strategic bombers flying from the continental United States to Iran and back, reportedly a 37-hour mission. The bombers were escorted by 125 aircraft in total, including tankers, reconnaissance platforms, electronic warfare assets and fighter jets.  While the US strike likely succeeded in damaging or disabling the targeted infrastructure, it did not yet achieve the broader objective of ending Iran’s nuclear weapons programme In addition,

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Israel is right to strike Evin prison

Israel announced today that it has launched an unprecedented strike against regime targets in central Tehran, including the notorious Evin prison. Evin is infamous for holding foreign hostages and dual nationals, many of whom are detained by the regime as part of what human rights groups call ‘hostage diplomacy’. It has long been associated with arbitrary detention, torture, forced confessions and inhumane conditions, especially for political prisoners and those accused of spying or threatening national security. The facility is run by the Islamic Republic’s Ministry of Intelligence and the Revolutionary Guards, serving as the central site for imprisoning those accused of anti-regime activity. Foreign and dual nationals are often arrested

Oleg Dunda

It’s not foolish to believe Putin will attack Nato

Many in Europe may still believe that a Russian invasion of one or more Nato countries is unlikely, if not absurd. This view seems convenient, but it is increasingly divergent from reality. Confidence in the alliance’s principle of so-called collective security is, sadly, becoming not a deterrent but an incentive to aggression by Moscow. The idea floating in the air in Europe seems to be the following: ‘Russia is bogged down in Ukraine. How can it threaten Britain or the Baltic states?’. This is rhetoric from another era. War is no longer what it used to be. And neither is Russia. The future invasion of the Baltic states will not

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Putin spies an opportunity in Trump’s attack on Iran

Is Donald Trump’s decision to join attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities an embarrassment, a provocation or an opportunity for Russia? The honest answer is that it is all three, but likely more of an opportunity than anything else, if Moscow is willing to play it cool. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi is in Moscow today to meet with Vladimir Putin, and before he set out, he was trying to sound bullish, asserting that ‘Russia is a friend of Iran’, and that he expected concrete measures in support. Yet one can question how far the two countries were ever truly allies, so much as frenemies who shared a series of common

Daniel Thorpe

The Isis threat to Syria hasn’t gone away

Just as things were starting to get better in Syria, an attack against the Christian community has shaken the country. In the suburbs of Damascus, a suspected Isis member entered the Mar Elias Church during Sunday mass, opened fire on the Greek Orthodox worshipers and then detonated a suicide vest. So far, the Syrian Health Ministry has confirmed at least 20 dead and 52 injured. As I arrived at the scene, armed members of the security forces were closing off the premises, trying to herd away the anxious locals who had gathered. Rubble and shattered glass on the streets, inside pools of blood. The Syrian White Helmets were picking through

Eliot Wilson

Is Britain ready to defend itself against Iranian reprisals?

Operation Midnight Hammer, America’s air and missile strikes against Iran at the weekend, did not involve the United Kingdom. Although the Prime Minister was informed of the military action in advance, there was not, so far as we know, any request from the United States for British approval, participation or support, and Sir Keir Starmer continues to call for a de-escalation of the conflict. There had been a great deal of suggestion that the UK might be drawn into action against Iran. The most likely scenario was thought to be a request from Washington to use Naval Support Facility Diego Garcia, the maritime and air base America leases from Britain

Jason M. Brodsky

Iran isn’t going to back down

Multiple American presidents have vowed to never allow Iran to acquire a nuclear weapon. This weekend President Trump made good on that promise. He undertook targeted, surgical strikes against the Islamic Republic’s nuclear programme after the regime repeatedly rejected diplomatic offers. This is a watershed moment which will change Iran, the region and the US position in the world. The devastation the regime has faced over the last week will only amplify calls for the pursuit of nuclear weapons In the immediate aftermath of the US military action against nuclear facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Esfahan, Iranian media and officials sought to downplay the strike. A source told Press TV,

Sunday

Jonathan Spyer

Iran is isolated against the US and Israel

America’s entry into the war against Iran is the latest step up an escalation spiral that began in October 2023. What started with an attack by a Palestinian Islamist organisation on a poorly defended Israeli border, and then became a fight between Israel and a series of Iran-supported Islamist paramilitary groups by the end of 2023, and then extended to limited exchanges between Israel and Iran itself in April 2024, and then turned into war between Iran and Israel, has now become a confrontation pitting the US and Israel against their longest standing and most powerful adversary in the Islamic world. Now at war with both Israel and the US, it

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Trump is making the world a safer place

Strength works. It’s a foreign policy lesson that sounds too simple to be true and too unequivocal to be wise, and yet there is much truth and a good deal of wisdom in it. Strength does not mean wanton thuggery or hubristic swagger, it must be considered, well-regulated and guided by reflection and sober analysis. But when it is properly deployed to clear and realistic ends, strength can achieve results that negotiation, compromise and avoidance cannot. Strength, when put in service of just goals, can sometimes be the preferable moral option, checking threats, risks and baneful intentions. At some point, US and European foreign policy elites are going to have

John Jenkins

What Iran will do now

The fact is, no one knows where this war ends. Overnight, the United States entered the conflict, bombing a series of targets across Iran. What happens next is difficult to predict. All we can really say for certain about this situation is where it began. And that was on 1 February 1979, when Ayatollah Khomeini returned to Iran – by courtesy of Air France – from Neauphle-le-Château, where he had been resident since his expulsion from Najaf in Iraq a few months earlier. Left alone, it is almost certain that Iran would seek to reconstruct its nuclear programme Khomeini had inveighed against Israel and Zionism (not always distinguishing either from Jews

Daniel DePetris

Prepare for Iran to retaliate

On Thursday, President Trump gave Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and the regime he has led for more than 35 years an ultimatum: start negotiating over your nuclear programme, or face the full consequences. He would allow another two weeks, at most, for Tehran to prove its willingness to negotiate sincerely.  The armchair warriors on cable TV news are gloating about how great the operation turned and how resolute Trump proved to be, but none appear particularly interested in the first, second and third order effects of the decision The two weeks, however, was only two days. Trump’s decision to drop 30,000-pound bunker-buster bombs on Fordow, Iran’s deeply-buried underground

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Trump’s Iran strike is a victory for the free world

Tel Aviv To America and Israel, the free world owes a debt – for courage, for clarity, for doing what had to be done. When the moment came, they did not hesitate. They bore the weight, braved the cost, and moved with the strength history demands. When Israel first struck inside Iran nine days ago, its government made a fateful decision: to sound the sirens and send its people into bomb shelters across the country. It was a moment of collective alertness, a signal that the threat was near and real. Last night, there were no sirens. No mass alerts. Most of Israel slept soundly as the United States acted with