World Archives

Wednesday

2 Mar 2022

Will the West boycott Russian oil?

The price of Brent crude exceeded $112 a barrel this morning. There is, as yet, no interruption in supply from Russia, nor any ban on buying their oil (save for in Canada) – but western companies are reported to be exercising a voluntary boycott. Either that, or they are sceptical of whether their orders will actually arrive. Turkey has already closed the Bosporus Straits to warships. Much of the oil exported to Europe takes this route. Even a voluntary refusal to buy Russian oil will have serious repercussions for markets. Russia produces around 12 per cent of the world’s oil – which is a huge chunk to lose. Except, that

William Nattrass

The crisis in Ukraine is strengthening the EU

The EU has a knack for turning a crisis into an opportunity. The Eurozone crisis led to the centralisation of economic powers in Brussels; Brexit consolidated the Franco-German push for EU integration; and Covid became the pretext for EU funds being made dependent on members adhering to the ‘rule of law’ for the first time. It’s looking likely that the bloc will repeat this trick with the war in Ukraine. Prior to Russia’s invasion, the EU was being mocked for its divisions: on Russian gas dependency, on proposed economic sanctions, and on political links with the Kremlin. Now, the bloc is trumpeting its unity. And it has been remarkable to

Isabel Hardman

No-fly zones won’t work, but what about aid to Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin’s forces are encircling the cities of Kharkiv, Kherson and Mariupol, and a 40 mile-long convoy of Russian armoured vehicles is north of Kiev on the seventh day of fighting in Ukraine. The coming days are likely to see greater barbarity from the Russian President after he failed to get his way in the first few days of the invasion. Those days are also likely to stretch into weeks as Putin lays siege to these cities until they are his. The debate about what the West should be doing to needs to widen out So far the political debate in the West has been dominated by a noisy argument about

Andrew Tettenborn

The Putin apologists of the European parliament

Never underestimate Vladimir Putin, and certainly never underestimate his advisers. Well before the first Russian rockets exploded in metropolitan Kiev, he had achieved a major foreign policy success by sabotaging the EU’s ability to present a united front against him. Ever since the days of Gerhard Schroeder, Russia had deftly weaponised German politicians’ commitment to Ostpolitik and German people’s desire for a comfortable bourgeois life, and this undoubtedly paid off. Before the invasion the EU’s paymaster was less than enthusiastic about sanctions when reminded of the sunk costs of Nord Stream 2 and its short-sighted but temporarily lucrative decision to depend both on Russian gas and the profits it made

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Putin is no Hitler

That English history lessons consist of World War II and the Tudors has come back to bite us again. The obsessive focus on learning about the 1940s means there is one historical figure Vladimir Putin has been repeatedly compared to in recent days: Adolf Hitler. It’s an unhelpful comparison, to say the least. From the Sun calling Putin ‘the Hitler of our age’ to Defence Secretary Ben Wallace’s ‘whiff of Munich’ remark, the build up to the war looms large in the British imagination. But while Putin is a nasty piece of work, he is not genocidal. And Hitler, unlike Putin, wasn’t armed with nuclear weapons. The motivations, intentions, and capabilities

Freddy Gray

Joe Biden’s gung-ho State of the Union speech

It’s arguably not the right moment to focus on Joe Biden’s verbal slips, but it is a little unnerving when the leader of the free world says ‘Iranians’ — or possibly ‘Uranians’ — when he means to say ‘Ukrainians’. These are dangerous times and we need politicians to speak clearly. Still, Biden got in his point across in his State of the Union address. He announced that he was closing US air space to Russian aircraft. He led a standing ovation for the Ukrainian ambassador to the US, Oksana Markarova. He said that Putin is ‘now more isolated from the world than he has ever been’. The president also said:

Gavin Mortimer

What’s behind the wave of French police suicides?

Since Russia invaded Ukraine last week the western media has focused on little else. In Britain this concentration is understandable: the country has finally come out of Covid and there is a large gap to be filled on the airwaves and in the newspapers. Not so in France, still encumbered by Covid restrictions, where in just over five weeks voters go to the polls in the first round of the presidential election. As much as the French are troubled by events in Ukraine – a recent poll reported that 88 per cent of those canvassed were ‘shocked’ by the Russian invasion – they will vote on issues closer to home:

Matt Purple

Ukraine couldn’t save Biden’s State of the Union

‘We oppose authoritarianism!’ our pundits all cry, before tuning in to watch the American president thunder like a god in front of a room full of clapping animatronic courtiers. Yes, it is State of the Union season here in America, our most North Korean of political traditions. And while hating on the annual address has become so commonplace as to be almost trite, it’s still difficult not to seethe at the entire imperial spectacle. Remember when Congressman Joe Wilson dared to interrupt a SOTU by shouting ‘You lie!’ after Barack Obama lied about his health reform plan? Wilson was promptly hauled off to a CIA black site, while cable news

Tuesday

1 Mar 2022

Tom Slater

Disney’s Russia boycott plays into Putin’s hands

What might make Vladimir Putin think twice? That’s the question on everyone’s lips as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues for another bloody day, leaving death, destruction and tragedy in its wake. Well, Disney has its answer: stop Russian children from watching the latest Pixar film. Disney has announced that it is pausing all theatrical releases in Russia, in response to the ‘unprovoked invasion of Ukraine and the tragic humanitarian crisis’. ‘We will make future business decisions based on the evolving situation’, the company said in a press release. The first film to be affected will be Turning Red, the latest Pixar romp, which was slated for release in Russia on

Jade McGlynn

Putin’s Kremlin is obsessed with world war two

Putin’s claim that the Russian invasion of Ukraine was intended to ‘denazify’ the country looked absurd when he made it last week. In the days since, as Russia adopts a more aggressive military response with cluster bombs reportedly being dropped and children caught in the crossfire, his ludicrous justification has been exposed for what it is. But for many Russians, who have not seen the horrific images emerging from Ukraine, Putin’s claim is unlikely to seem so fanciful. While it seems darkly ironic for Putin to call Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky – who is Jewish – a neo-Nazi, there is nothing new about this false parallel being made. The idea that fascists control Ukraine

Joseph S. Nye, Jr.

Has Putin’s invasion changed the world order?

Is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ‘a turning point in history’? Does it spell the end of the American era, and the beginning of a new Cold War between the West and a Russo-Chinese axis of authoritarians? Some invoke the image of 1939. After assuring the world that he was interested only in protecting his fellow Germans in the Sudetenland, Adolf Hitler annexed the rest of Czechoslovakia and then invaded Poland, setting off world war two. Are the Russians in the Donbass the modern equivalents of the Sudeten Germans? Where will Putin stop? Others draw an analogy to 1948 and Stalin’s drawing of an Iron Curtain across Eastern Europe, followed by

Rodric Braithwaite

Putin’s nightmare is becoming a reality

‘Those he commands move only in command, nothing in love’. Shakespeare always gets it right. I remembered his words about Macbeth as I watched a shifty Vladimir Putin force the members of his Security Council to bob up and down as they tremulously affirmed their support for his wise policy on Ukraine. This enforced compliance among Russian’s politicians has continued in the days since, as Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has continued. Russian officials are not openly criticising Putin (yet). But the faces of his generals – serious professionals who know how dangerous these things are – spoke volumes as he ordered them to up the nuclear alert. And they will not be

Monday

28 Feb 2022

Katy Balls

Johnson under pressure on offer to Ukraine refugees

What help will the government offer to Ukrainians seeking shelter in the UK? While the Prime Minister has been talking up his support for the Ukrainian people, government actions on offering refuge to those fleeing the country has so far been limited. After immigration minister Kevin Foster suggested on social media that those escaping Putin’s invasion could qualify for the seasonal worker scheme — which applies to jobs such as fruit picking — Boris Johnson is under pressure to go much further (Foster’s tweet has now been deleted). What help will the government offer to Ukrainians seeking shelter in the UK? On Sunday, the government announced that Ukrainian nationals settled in the UK

James Forsyth

‘Staying Switzerland’ on Ukraine is impossible

The striking thing about the financial sanctions on Russia is not their severity, but just how many countries are joining in the effort. Switzerland has today announced that it will adopt the EU sanctions on Russia, particularly significant because it has been the biggest recipient of private transfers by Russians in recent years. The fact that such a traditionally neutral country is imposing sanctions will deepen the wedge between Putin and the rest of the ruling elite. Meanwhile in Asia, Japan, South Korea and Singapore have signed on to the economic measures on Russia. Their willingness to do this is as much about Taiwan as Ukraine; they know that China is

Philip Patrick

Kicking Russia out of the World Cup would achieve nothing

‘There are more important things in life than football,’ said the Polish football federation as they announced their intention to boycott a crunch World Cup qualifier against Russia next month. Sweden and the Czech Republic, who meet on the same night for the right to meet the winner of that now severely at-risk tie, have also indicated their refusal to meet Russia. The English FA have made the same pledge ‘for the foreseeable future’ (potentially jeopardising the Women’s European Championship to be held in England in July); while the French association also issued a sympathetic statement. In response, FIFA’s bureau, consisting of representatives of the six confederations, stopped short of expelling Russia but

Sam Ashworth-Hayes

Putin’s war in Ukraine is about to turn even nastier

Is Ukraine winning its war against Russia? Watching the conflict through Twitter or broadcast media, you’d be forgiven for thinking so. Despite its overwhelming military superiority, Russia is taking casualties, momentum is stalling, and a succession of stirring stories – Ukrainian soldiers telling Russian troops to go ‘fuck yourself’ and ordinary Ukrainians rising up to stand in the way of Russian tanks – suggests undaunted resistance. The overwhelming volume of video and audio material posted is coming from the Ukrainian side. Combined with pessimistic statements from Russian figures, this gives the impression of an advance bogged down. Take a step back, and Russian gains on the ground have been extremely rapid; by comparison, after

James Kirkup

Will Britain welcome Ukrainian refugees?

Immigration used to be the most-discussed issue in British politics. It gets less attention these days, for reasons too varied to go into here. But even though some voters have been focused on other things, there have been significant changes. Some have been good. Others bad. And the bad ones are about to collide with the Ukrainian crisis. The positive bits of the immigration story have mainly been around regulated, economically-driven migration. Britain’s post-EU migration regime is, well, not as bad as it could have been. It’s not as easy as it was for EU nationals to come here to work, but it’s a bit easier for non-EU nationals to

Katja Hoyer

Germany has rejected Merkel’s military legacy

‘We are witnessing a turning point… the world is not the same anymore,’ said German Chancellor Olaf Scholz yesterday in a speech that will be remembered as the country’s biggest military shift since 1945. Staring down the barrel of Putin’s gun, Scholz announced a massive and immediate cash injection for Germany’s armed forces as well as a long-term commitment to higher defence spending. Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine has pulled Germany out of decades of complacency and misguided pacifism. Foreign minister Annalena Baerbock seemed genuinely shocked at the discrepancy between Putin’s words during her visit to Moscow last month and his actions in Ukraine. She has said she feels betrayed:

Mark Galeotti

Putin’s propaganda machine is breaking down

As protests continue against the war in Ukraine, and as Russian casualties mount, the Kremlin has launched the predictable two-prong propaganda campaign. This is made up of a barrage of nonsensical rationalisations of Russia’s invasion and legal and technological measures to try and keep honest reporting at bay. Much like the soldiers engaged in the invasion, Putin’s propagandists are looking as committed or competent as might have been expected. Although the state has a firm grip on TV and most other media outlets, this is not a totalitarianism and there are still some independent outlets. Hosts and ordinary citizens calling in to the Silver Rain radio station were barely holding back

Sam Leith

Has Putin resurrected the West?

I think Putin will have been surprised. I mean: I was surprised. Weren’t you? Not, necessarily, that Ukraine should have been resisting as valiantly as it is; nor even that Russia’s supposedly unstoppable war machine should have found itself out of petrol on a chilly highway from which the road signs have been removed. But surprised by the sheer force and volume and unanimity of the international cry of: no, this will not stand. That is one thing, even amid the unspeakable human cost of the war in Ukraine, to feel encouraged by. If this invasion does, as many have said, mark the beginning of a new order in European