World

Trump’s Latino outreach has paid off – big time

While many swing states still hang in the balance, it’s Florida that has shifted decisively to Donald Trump. As I hinted on Monday, it was Trump’s surge among the Latino vote in Miami that delivered him the state. The margins are quite astonishing – while Miami-Dade, the state’s most populous county, saw a Clinton win of 30 points in 2016, Biden has clung on by just 7 points. In heavily Cuban precincts, the President snagged over 80 per cent of the vote, up from around 55 per cent last time. Indeed, despite Trump’s big win in the Sunshine State (and three points is big for Florida), non-Latino voters actually swung

America gets the divided election result it deserves

The 2020 US presidential race was an ugly, ferocious dogfight. So it only makes sense for the contest to end the same way it started. Americans went to bed unsure who their next president was going to be. At the time of writing, Donald Trump and Joe Biden are neck-and-neck (223-212 in favour of Biden in the Electoral College tally) in most of the battleground states that will determine who emerges victorious and who will be forced into an early retirement. Trump did what he needed to do in Florida, winning by approximately three points in the perennial swing-state to keep his re-election prospects alive. It appears Trump will also

Ten states to watch on election night

Donald Trump’s 2016 election victory stunned the world. It also uprooted the electoral map: Trump won narrow victories in states which had voted Democratic for decades. This year, many forecasters have been keen to stress the unpredictability of an election that may well redefine that map again. Holding an election in a pandemic makes predictions tough: while most Republican voters are still happy to vote in person, most Democrats have cast absentee or early ballots – which may be counted at different times or rejected at different rates. It’s also unpredictable because the Trump era has shattered many usual voting habits, with many blue-collar working-class communities now solidly Republican –

Patrick O'Flynn

Macron has exposed the cowardice of Boris’s response to terror

Sometimes what a politician leaves unsaid tells us more than what he does say. Take the different reactions to the wave of Islamist terror attacks across Europe by Boris Johnson and Emmanuel Macron. The Prime Minister’s statement of sympathy with Austria over the atrocities in Vienna last night may seem at first glance to cover the bases: ‘I am deeply shocked by the terrible attacks in Vienna tonight. The UK’s thoughts are with the people of Austria — we stand united with you against terror.’ But compare it to that from the president of France: ‘Europe is in mourning. One of our own has been hit hard by Islamist terrorism. We think of

The Vienna attack is a bitter blow for Sebastian Kurz

With Austria’s latest Covid lockdown due to begin at midnight, Viennese citizens were enjoying a final night of freedom. And then the shooting started. The temperature was warm for this time of year, and people were sitting at pavement tables outside the bars and cafes, enjoying the balmy weather and obeying the coronavirus guidelines. What followed was what the Austrian Chancellor, Sebastian Kurz, called a ‘repulsive terror attack.’ So far, four civilians are reported dead – two men and two women. Seventeen more are in hospital with serious injuries, including one policeman. Seven of these injuries are reported as critical. An attacker was shot dead by police. At least one

Trump is flawed but he got one thing right

By tomorrow morning, he should be back on one of his golf courses. Or prepping for a new series of the Apprentice. Or quite possibly spending more time with his lawyers. Either way, if the polls and bookmakers are to be trusted, Donald Trump will be the first sitting president to be ejected from office since George Bush Senior, way back in 1992. In truth, he won’t be much missed. His bullying, narcissistic manner demeaned the office. His estranged relationship with the truth made him an unreliable ally. And his lack of empathy made him a poor leader at a time of crisis. But in one respect at least he

Gavin Mortimer

Europe is under attack because of its culture, not its cartoons

Let us imagine for a moment that Emmanuel Macron takes the advice of many in the Anglophone world and bans the publication in France of any further caricatures of the prophet Mohammed. Canada’s prime minister, Justin Trudeau, might praise the president of France for his courageous decision ‘to act with respect for others’ and the New York Times might no longer insinuate France was institutionally Islamophobic. The angry protests in Pakistan and Bangladesh would end, and president Erdogan of Turkey would tell the world that Macron was no longer mentally ill, but rather a man of integrity. French school teachers would go to work without fear and perhaps, too, the staff

Freddy Gray

What if Covid hadn’t infected the US election?

Imagine there’s no Covid. It’s not that easy even if you try, since the pandemic fogs up everything now. But what would the presidential election look like if the novel coronavirus had never escaped Wuhan? Who would be winning? It‘s easy to think that President Trump would be cruising towards re-election. He would be swanning around the country touting his Greatest Economy Ever. The crisis would not have revealed his eccentric attitudes towards the human body and medicinal cures. His strange and erratic reactions to the virus would not have left voters wondering how America ended up with a conspiracy theorist billionaire in charge. Trump would probably still be talking

Don’t bank on a Biden landslide

It’s easy to turn on CNN or take a quick glimpse at the polls and just assume that Donald Trump is destined to become the first one-term president in nearly three decades. Some of my proud Democrat friends keep insisting to me that the former vice president Joe Biden will humiliate Trump with a margin of victory past presidential aspirants only dreamt of. Democratic strategists are confident of regime change in Washington DC — so confident, in fact, that they are starting to discuss possible candidates for key posts in a future Biden administration. You can’t blame them for believing the Trump era is irrepressibly doomed. Public surveys show Trump barely holding water

No, the United States isn’t on the verge of civil war

As the US enters the final straight of what has been — to put it mildly — a highly unusual election campaign, something akin to panic is taking hold among observers on both sides of the Atlantic. The premise is that the United States is in a highly fragile state, that the election could easily tip it into widespread violence, and that the social and political divisions currently dubbed the ‘culture wars’ could escalate into a real war. One scenario suggests blood on the streets were Donald Trump and his supporters to resist defeat. A respected think tank, the International Crisis Group, which usually analyses places such as Somalia has

Poland’s All Saints’ Day traditions are at risk

The grave sweepers came early this year. When I visited one 18th century cemetery in Warsaw, half the tombstones had already been tidied and decked with pots of yellow chrysanthemums, well before All Saints’ Day. The other graves remained obscured by sodden piles of leaves. Many cemeteries may not see guests at all this year. Traditionally, on the first day of November millions of Poles travel to their family tombs for All Saints’ Day – some traversing the entire country to reach rural resting places in ancestral hometowns. When they arrive, they lay new plastic flowers, throwing away last year’s imitations, by now turned pale yellow and fluorescent green. In cities public

Matthew Parris

Matthew Parris, Lionel Shriver and Douglas Murray

25 min listen

On this episode, Matthew Parris talks about how, on free school meals, he’s truly fallen behind the zeitgeist; Lionel Shriver on why she’s voting for Biden, warts and all; and Douglas Murray’s reflections from America in the days before the election. Tell us your thoughts on our podcasts and be in for a chance to win a bottle of Pol Roger champagne by filling out our podcast survey. Visit spectator.co.uk/podcastsurvey.

What lockdown sceptics get wrong about Sweden

Should Britain return to a form of lockdown — the logical conclusion of a suppression strategy — or should we adopt a different approach, one that looks more like Sweden? Those in favour of a so-called ‘segmentation strategy’, where the vulnerable are shielded and the rest of us are allowed to continue with our lives unrestricted, often point to the Scandinavian country as an exemplar. It’s an alluring argument, certainly, but one that does not stand up to scrutiny. A sober look at Sweden, in fact, shows that it is far from the great success story some so desperately want it to be. Supporters of the Swedish approach would correctly

Does Kim Jong-un want the ‘dotard’ or the ‘snob’ to win?

Donald Trump has made plenty of enemies in his time as president, but as the US president himself has claimed, he also gained an unlikely friend: Kim Jong-un. North Korea will be watching the result of next week’s US election closely. But would Pyongyang prefer four more years of an impulsive Trump, or a new Biden administration in its place? Both leaders have not been immune from denigrations from the top of the North Korean regime. Trump may have been decried as a ‘dotard’, but his Democratic challenger has been degraded as a ‘low-IQ snob’ and an ‘imbecile bereft of elementary quality as a human being’; a ‘rabid dog’ who ‘must be beaten to

Gavin Mortimer

Macron’s France is fearful and angry

On Thursday morning, I visited the cathedral at Reims. The central door on the north side is dedicated to Saint Nicasius, who founded the first cathedral on the site and who, in 407 AD, was decapitated by the Vandals. It struck me as odd that a burly security guard was checking visitors’ bags, but shortly after leaving the cathedral I learned of what had unfolded at the Notre Dame Basilica in Nice. Barbarity is nothing new to France but what is so troubling about the wave of bloody violence that has swept the country in the last decade is the impotence of the rulers. Emmanuel Macron flew to Nice and

James Forsyth

Britain must learn from Asia’s pandemic response

Across Europe, more and more states are imposing stricter and stricter restrictions to try and slow coronavirus’s spread. The Irish, despite having initially rejected the advice of their scientists to move to the highest level of restrictions, have now done so. Emmanuel Macron set himself against another national lockdown, but then announced one on Wednesday night, albeit with schools staying open. But, as I say in the Times this morning, life in Asia continues to return to normal. Case numbers are pancake-like in Japan, China, South Korea, Vietnam, Thailand and Singapore, while Taiwan has gone 200 days without a locally transmitted case. There are, rightly, limits to what the UK

It’s time to expel Turkey from Nato

Even the staunchest Remainer would admit the EU is not currently the happiest ship, sailing in the waters of world politics. Viktor Orban’s self-proclaimed ‘illiberal democracy’ is growing increasingly incompatible with EU values, Poland has expressed distaste for ‘the Brussels elites, blinded by political correctness’, and on two occasions Greece has locked horns with the EU’s upper echelons over the debt crisis. But while the EU has been a daily headline topic for years, the state of Nato has been largely neglected — despite the fact that one of its own members, Turkey, threatens to fatally undermine the alliance. Ankara’s relations with the West have been deteriorating for years —