World

The growing case for an independent Western Cape

A few days ago, the results of a poll conducted in the Western Cape by Victory Research – one of South Africa’s most respected polling organisations – were released. They delivered quite a shock. Like recent Scottish opinion polls, they showed a small majority for independence among supporters of the Democratic Alliance (DA), now in its third straight term as the governing party of the Western Cape (South Africa’s other eight provinces are ruled by the ANC). The party will come under increasing pressure to hold a referendum on secession from the rest of South Africa. According to the polling, around two-thirds of the Western Cape’s DA supporters also want

Freddy Gray

Is Biden better for Brexit Britain?

9 min listen

While Congress Speaker Nancy Pelosi this week gave an ultimatum to the British government over the latter’s plans to breach international law, it’s clear that London frequently finds Trump a difficult partner. So at the end of the day – is Biden better for negotiating a trade deal? Freddy Gray talks to the Spectator’s Economics Correspondent, Kate Andrews.

Could the Japan trade deal offer a shortcut to a UK-US agreement?

The news over the last few days has been a tale of three trade negotiations. First came the threatened collapse of the trade talks with the EU over plans to override the Withdrawal Agreement. This was followed by a statement from Nancy Pelosi (the Speaker of the House of Representatives) that there could be no UK-USA trade deal unless the Irish question was sorted. And finally, the successful conclusion of the UK-Japan trade negotiations. Although relatively small in comparison to existing trade with the EU, this negotiation at least gives some direction to how the UK’s trade position might evolve. A key part of the Japanese agreement was that Japan would

Cindy Yu

Winning shot: how the vaccines race has become a power struggle

34 min listen

Vaccines are normally in the realm of scientists; but not this time as world leaders race to be the first. (00:50) Brexit is heating up, but is the government in a stronger position than it seems? (13:35) And a modern day Caligula – the life and times of the Thai king Rama X. (22:40) With journalist Matthew Lynn; immunologist Beate Kampmann; our political editor James Forsyth; YouGov pollster Marcus Roberts; and Asia historian Francis Pike. Presented by Cindy Yu.

The EU’s bizarre new climate change targets

In recent years, governments have increasingly opted to legislate to ensure they do the things they say they are going to do. In the UK, for example, the commitment to allocate 0.7 per cent of GDP to the international aid budget is legally binding, and in 2019 the UK became the first major economy to pass laws to achieve net zero carbon emissions by 2050. The peculiar aspect of these laws is that Parliament is still supreme, and so a future government can repeal any laws it finds inconvenient. In reality, these legal targets have two effects. First, they help governments resist pressure from their backbenchers, for example when it

India and China are on a path to war

The foreign ministers of China and India, Wang Yi and Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, will meet today on the sidelines of a conference in Moscow. Their conversation is sure to be frosty: earlier this week, a four-month stand-off between the two countries’ armed forces escalated into warning shots being fired in the western Himalayas. This was the first discharge of guns between the two nations in 45 years. Chinese president Xi Jinping and Indian prime minister Narendra Modi have so far refrained from speaking to each other to defuse the tension. Worryingly, the belligerence from the Chinese bears resemblance to its tone before the two countries went to war in 1962. ‘The

Ministers need to defy the instinct to lockdown

One of the many ironies of the past few months is that young people, while least affected by the virus, have paid the heaviest price for lockdown. They have been deprived of education, had their exams thrown into chaos and, as a result, many have been denied the university places they deserved. Apprenticeships and internships have dried up and office closures have kicked away the ladder which allows new arrivals to advance. And now Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, is accusing ‘affluent younger people’ of dangerously selfish behaviour, of socialising once again in a way that could ‘kill your granny’. We seldom hear from ministers an acknowledgement of the price

The depraved rule of Thailand’s Caligula king

The Roman emperor Caligula was renowned for his extravagance, capricious cruelty, sexual deviancy and temper bordering on insanity. Most famously, before he was assassinated, he planned to appoint his favourite horse as a consul. This is probably a legend. But King Maha Vajiralongkorn, who ascended the Thai throne in 2016, adopted Caligula’s playbook for real. In 2009 the then crown prince promoted his pet miniature poodle Foo Foo to the post of air chief marshal, in which capacity he served until his death in 2015, aged 17. Foo Foo’s cremation was preceded by four days of formal Buddhist mourning. The poodle first came to the attention of the general public

Pakistan’s lockdown gamble appears to have paid off

Pakistan’s stock exchange isn’t typically seen as one of the world’s best, but in recent weeks it has outperformed almost every other rival market. In terms of weekly profit, the Pakistan stock market was among the world’s top-performing last week. In August, it was Asia’s best and the fourth-best globally. For many, this has been a surprising turnaround in a country that registered a nine-year low growth rate only 12 months ago. Not to mention that the Pakistan stock exchange crashed with much of the rest of the global market when Covid-19 hit in March. So what explains Pakistan’s success? It is no coincidence that the stock market highs have come in light of Pakistan transforming into

Stephen Daisley

Israel is a true ally – it’s time Boris remembered that

Boris Johnson has described himself as ‘a passionate defender of Israel’ and, what’s more, ‘a life-long friend, admirer and supporter of Israel’. He says the UK ‘has always stood by Israel and its right to live, as any nation should be able to, in peace and security’. That recognition that the Jewish state should be treated like every other does not, however, extend to a very basic courtesy: we refuse to recognise its capital and place our embassy there. There is a UK embassy in the capital of China, inflicter of coronavirus and mass incarcerator of Uyghurs. There is a UK embassy in the capital of Iran, one of the

Sam Leith

Former Australian PM Julia Gillard on sexism in politics

38 min listen

My guest in this week’s books podcast is the former Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard. Along with the economist and former Nigerian finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Julia has written a new book called Women and Leadership: Real Lives, Real Lessons, which includes interviews with women who’ve reached the top roles in global institutions, from Christine Lagarde and Joyce Banda to Michelle Bachelet and Theresa May. I asked her about her own time in politics, what she’d have done differently, whether Australia is more sexist than the UK, and her notorious ‘misogyny’ speech – plus, what she thinks her old sparring partner Tony Abbott has to offer the UK as a

John Keiger

Macron’s Brexit swansong is about to unfold

At a solemn ceremony at the Panthéon to mark the 150th anniversary of the (re-)birth of the Republic, president Macron chose a 59-year-old anti-Brexit British expatriate to be one of five newly naturalised French citizens emblematic of what it means to become French. Macron does nothing without gauging its historical and political theatre. Coming just days before the eighth and final round of Brexit negotiations, here was Macron thumbing his nose at Britain and signalling his intention to return to the Brexit arena. What will this mean for the Brexit negotiations? First it will see Michel Barnier increasingly sidelined. Barnier is, after all, a mere EU functionary whose brief was drafted before

Freddy Gray

Is Trump’s campaign running out of cash?

You can tell something about a campaign by the desperation-levels of its fundraising emails. In recent weeks, Team Trump’s digital team has started to resemble a company on the verge of bankruptcy. My inbox is full of emails purporting to be from various members of the Trump family, telling ME in CAPITAL LETTERS how important it is that STEP UP and PAY THEM. Yesterday, for instance, Kimberly Guilfoyle tried to guilt-trip me by saying that she had been ‘recently reviewing the donor files of the President’s long-time supporters and I noticed that yours was EMPTY.’ Hours earlier, I was informed that a ‘PERSONALIZED’ Trump Platinum Card was waiting for me,

Are we really seeing a second European spike?

You’ve probably seen the graphs, cases are way up in France, even higher than the first wave, and yet deaths hardly seem to be up at all. Yet if you compare the latest number of deaths recorded, 130 for the week ending 3 September, they’re slightly higher than the 123 deaths in the week in March when the country locked down.  Meanwhile, in the UK, cases continue to rise with just under 3,000 new infections announced over the last two consecutive days. The deputy chief medical officer said last night that the rise is deeply concerning and that Brits had ‘relaxed too much’. Should we be panicking? Are we about

Does Catalonia really want independence?

In 1714, after a long siege, Spain managed to regain control of Barcelona after the War of Spanish Succession. Catalan nationalists point to the day Barcelona fell, 11 September 1714, as the point when Madrid began to strip their homeland of its ancient privileges, and three centuries of subjugation and repression began. To remind everyone of the importance of the year 1714, Barcelona fans chant in favour of independence for Catalonia when the Camp Nou football stadium clock shows that 17 minutes and 14 seconds of a match have passed. Meanwhile the day itself, 11 September, is commemorated every year as La Diada (‘The Day’), Catalonia’s national day. In most

It’s time for the West to ditch its Russian playbook

We have been here before. Russia is at the centre of an international crisis of its own creation. And we know how it plays out: briefly there is shock in Western capitals, quickly followed by outrage. This is entirely justified given that Alexey Navalny, Russia’s most prominent opposition figure – and the second most popular politician in the country – is lying in a coma in a Berlin hospital having been poisoned, according to the German government, by the nerve-agent Novichok. In diplomatic language, this is expressed as ‘deep concern’ with Russia’s ‘shocking and irresponsible’ behaviour, which is condemned ‘in the strongest terms’. Next comes Russia’s disinformation onslaught. Already, Maria

The truth about Tony Abbott

Last night’s confirmation that Tony Abbott is joining the Board of Trade has been reported, bizarrely, with accusations that he is somehow misogynist or homophobic. There was little mention of why the British government actually headhunted him: his ability to achieve big free trade deals quickly. In his two years in office, he did more to help Australia’s exporters than any other leader in the country’s history, finalising free trade deals with what are (now) Australia’s three most important markets: Japan, China and Korea. He also initiated talks on a trade deal with the EU after his Labor predecessors lazily ignored the opportunity for years. But as this is not

Melanie McDonagh

President Trump’s big Balkan deal

President Trump has presided over a notable deal between Kosovo and Serbia. It’s interesting in more ways than one. For starters, the deal is very, very Trump. It’s about the economy, stupid. The deal-maker-in-chief, Richard Grenell, former acting director of National Intelligence, has, as he said, flipped the script. The deal has put economic development ahead of political issues in Kosovo and Serbia. That, you may recall, was more or less the late John Hume’s prescription for peacemaking in Northern Ireland… if you focus on developing the economy and creating jobs, it makes the political issues an awful lot more manageable. And in the case of the dysfunctional economies of