World

Sunday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

What happens if the American election is a tie?

32 min listen

America has a peculiar way of deciding national elections. Instead of a cumulative national vote, the president and vice president are determined by fifty separate state elections. The top ticket in each state (except Nebraska and Maine) receives all that state’s electoral votes, no matter how slim the margin of victory. Each state’s electoral votes are equal to its number of House members plus its senators. The winner needs 270 electoral votes.  What if, in this razor-thin election, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris fall one vote short? Freddy Gray is joined by Charles Lipson, contributor to The Spectator and political scientist,  to answer that question. You can read the rest of his

Katja Hoyer Katja Hoyer

Banning Germany’s AfD won’t make it disappear

The opening of a regional parliament doesn’t usually make for edge-of-the-seat politics. But in the German state of Thuringia, the first session of newly elected MPs descended into such unsavoury chaos that some commentators now fear for German democracy itself. A few weeks ago, Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) won the Thuringian parliamentary election, making it the first significant far-right victory in Germany since the Nazis. All other political parties agreed to uphold their cordon sanitaire around the AfD, but the first parliamentary session on Thursday showed that the democratic system isn’t designed to isolate the election winner. Picture Corbyn and Braverman drafting a history curriculum together for an idea of

Alexander Kolyandr

The secret behind Putin’s booming war economy

Russia’s spending on its war in Ukraine continues to grow. Somehow, despite tightening sanctions and increased global isolation, two-and-a-half-years in to the conflict, it appears Moscow can continue to splash the cash on its army – for now. Spending on president Vladimir Putin’s military is set to increase by more than a quarter to 13.3 trillion roubles (£107 billion) next year, according to a draft of the Russian state budget for 2025 revealed this week. This colossal sum – which is nearly double the 6.4 trillion roubles (£52 billion) spent last year – is roughly twice the size of the amount spent by Britain on its own defence. Russia’s government

Saturday

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

This is Israel’s greatest victory since the Six-Day War

There is a satirical Israeli song from the Second Lebanon War, ‘Yalla Ya Nasrallah’, with the chorus: ‘Come on, oh Nasrallah/We will screw you, inshallah/we’ll send you back to Allah/with the rest of Hezbollah’. The lyrics are doggerel, but I mention it for two reasons. One, it’s an absolute banger of a tune and, two, all that it threatened has now been carried out. Hassan Nasrallah, leader of Hezbollah for 32 years, was killed last night in an IDF strike on the Islamist terror group’s underground command centre beneath a Beirut suburb. My city my people 😂🇮🇱 Tel Aviv “Yalla ya Nasrallah, We will f*ck you Inshallah, We will return

Jonathan Spyer

How will Iran respond to Nasrallah’s assassination?

The assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah transcends the immediate confrontation between Israel and its Islamist enemies. Nasrallah was both a leader and a symbol of Iran’s bid for hegemony in the Arab world. His fighters advanced Iran’s cause in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and beyond the region – into Europe, Africa, and Latin America. Israeli pundits discussed last night the possibility of deterioration into all-out war As is known but rarely stated by western diplomats and officials, Nasrallah was the most powerful man in Lebanon and its de facto ruler. He led a military force and a political structure that dwarfed the ailing official state and managed a successful insurgency

Ali Kefford

Is a Russian threat floating off the English coast?

It is a little unsettling that the merchant ship MV Ruby is anchored off Margate, carrying 20,000 tonnes of Russian ammonium nitrate. This is seven times the amount of ammonium nitrate that caused the Beirut explosion in 2020, which killed 218 people and injured 6,000. While ammonium nitrate is usually sold as plant fertiliser, it can also be used in explosives. Some worry that there is a bomb a third of the size of the one detonated over Hiroshima within striking distance of London. Since leaving the White Sea port of Kandalaksha in July, the 23,760-tonne MV Ruby has exhibited unusual behaviour. Sailing under a Maltese flag, she was grounded during a storm, damaging

Limor Simhony Philpott

Nasrallah is dead and Hezbollah is broken

Israel has said that it killed Hezbollah’s leader Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut yesterday. Information that Nasrallah was at Hezbollah’s main headquarters in Beirut arrived while Israel’s Prime Minister was addressing the UN in New York, and a decision was made to target the man who has been terrorising Israelis for more than three decades. He was a gifted politician and leader, under whose leadership Hezbollah turned from a minor terrorist group into a large, heavily armed powerhouse Nasrallah, 64, was born in a village in southern Lebanon and was a deeply devout Shiite Muslim. He was one of the founders of Hezbollah and became leader of the terror organisation when

Rachel Johnson

Rachel Johnson, James Heale, Paul Wood, Rowan Pelling and Graeme Thomson

34 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Rachel Johnson reads her diary for the week (1:19); James Heale analyses the true value of Labour peer Lord Alli (6:58); Paul Wood questions if Israel is trying to drag America into a war with Iran (11:59); Rowan Pelling reviews Want: Sexual Fantasies, collated by Gillian Anderson (19:47); and Graeme Thomson explores the ethics of the posthumous publication of new music (28:00).  Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

How does the SPD solve a problem like Olaf Scholz?

Olaf Scholz can’t catch a break. The German chancellor started the week on a high after his SPD party won the state elections in Brandenburg by the skin of their teeth. But any illusion that Scholz had won a reprieve from criticism has been brutally crushed. Just one in five Germans think Scholz should run for chancellor again at next year’s election, according to a poll published this week. Worse, Germans have a clear idea of who they’d like to replace him with: defence minister Boris Pistorius. Two thirds of Germans want Scholz to renounce his candidacy for chancellor and allow Pistorius to step into his shoes, according to a

Rupert Shortt

Why don’t more people care about Christian persecution?

While Judaism is proportionately the most persecuted global faith, Christianity is by far the most oppressed numerically. One in seven Christians worldwide – around 300 million people – are under threat, including one in five in Africa. Yet we hear all too little about this rising tide of ‘Christianophobia’. Christians are still widely assumed to be disproportionately white, western or privileged – and thus somehow less vulnerable to oppression Christians are even at risk in the West. Over 850 churches and Christian cemeteries were attacked across France in 2021. A Catholic priest, Father Olivier Maire, died tragically in the same year. He was fatally bludgeoned by Emmanuel Abayisenga, on bail awaiting trial

Mark Hollingsworth

Putin’s frightening fascination with the occult

Wearing a long white scarf, military khaki pants and holding a drum and stick, Vladimir Putin smiles as he watches a shaman – a combination of a psychic and spiritual healer – play an acoustic guitar for a traditional ritual. It is 2007 and the Russian president, his close friend Sergei Shoigu, now head of Russia’s national security council, and the shaman are sitting by a fire in Tuva, a remote area of Siberia on the border with Mongolia. Known as ‘a place of power’ where shamanic traditions are strong, this region is home to Shoigu, a native Siberian Asiatic, who in his former role as defence minister played a

Friday

Stephen Daisley Stephen Daisley

Israel goes for Hezbollah’s leadership

Israel has carried out a daring air strike against Hezbollah’s headquarters. The Islamist terror group’s underground command centre, located below civilian buildings in Dahieh, Beirut, was hit by what Israeli media are describing as ‘tens of tons of explosives’ on Friday night. There are unconfirmed reports that Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah was the target of the strike. Reuters is quoting a Hezbollah source saying Nasrallah is alive, but if he has been eliminated it would represent a seismic change in the Middle East. Nasrallah has led Hezbollah – ‘the Party of Allah’ – for more than three decades and has tightened the organisation’s stranglehold over Lebanon while waging war on

George Magnus

Beijing is seriously concerned about the Chinese economy

China’s leaders and economic policymakers – who have been optimistic and confident about the economy for years – are clearly spooked.  Just two weeks ago, Chinese state media was happily insisting that the country was experiencing ‘stable economic growth’. China requires a major rethink when it comes to the economy, something which may be politically impossible for a Leninist government Yet in the last week, Beijing has announced and is expected to approve over £319 billion in new fiscal measures – the biggest monetary policy stimulus since the pandemic. The move is a clear acknowledgement that China has a weak economy with an array of systemic economic and social problems. In another

Coffee House

The Spectator at Conservative conference 2024: events programme

The Spectator is delighted to be at Conservative party conference in Birmingham this year. Our schedule is below: Sunday 29 September Coffee House Shots Live – welcome reception 4-5pm Join The Spectator team for a drink as conference begins. Open to all.  Location: The Spectator – Hall 4, ICC Birmingham Private drinks reception: The Spectator in association with National Gas  5.30-6.30pm Invitation only. Email spectatorevents@spectator.co.uk to request an invitation. With Fraser Nelson (editor, The Spectator) and Claire Coutinho (Shadow Secretary of State for Energy Security and Net Zero). Monday 30 September  Is the Conservative party ready to talk about tax?    12.30-1.30pm What happened to the Conservatives being the party of low taxation? Join The Spectator and guests as they discuss the rising tax burden –

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Japan’s next prime minister is a bit of a maverick 

The 67-year-old Shigeru Ishiba will become Japan’s new prime minister on 1 October after winning a surprisingly exciting play-off vote against his rival Sanae Takaichi. For a moment it looked as if Japanese MPs were set to elect the country’s first female leader (Takaichi was ahead of Ishiba in the first round of voting) but in the end the Liberal Democratic party (LDP) opted for experience and former defence minister Ishiba’s safe, and crucially clean pair of hands. Ishiba is at first glance a typical Japanese politician and an unexciting choice for PM. He’s a former banker and has been in politics for nearly 40 years. He doesn’t have a

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Why didn’t the BBC air this 7 October documentary earlier?

We all know what happened on 7th October 2023. But those of us who have watched the Israeli government’s compilation of footage from the day, as well as other videos sourced from the darker corners of the internet, know more than most the extent of atrocities carried out by the Palestinian terrorists who invaded through the Gaza border. There is no sanitisation here, no softening of the terror Now everyone can get a sense of what truly happened, thanks to Surviving October 7th: We Will Dance Again, the film by Yariv Mozer which screened last night on the BBC and is available on iPlayer and Paramount+ in the US. The documentary delivers a

Dalibor Rohac

Slating Nato won’t help Donald Trump

Reacting to Volodymyr Zelensky’s visit to Scranton, Pennsylvania, earlier this week, Donald Trump reiterated his long-standing ambition to bring Russia’s war in Ukraine to a quick negotiated settlement instead of continuing with open-ended military support to Kyiv. If he wins the election, Trump said, ‘the first thing I’m gonna do is call up Zelensky and call up President Putin and I’m gonna say, “You gotta make a deal, this is crazy”.’ Trump is often seen as mercurial and unpredictable – an impression he revels in – but his desire to solve conflicts with real estate-like deals forms a consistent pattern of his foreign policy. In the context of Ukraine, that framing

Carson Becker

Viktor Orban’s adviser has made a big mistake

This week Balazs Orban, the bespectacled political director to the Hungarian Prime Minister (and of no relation to him), has found himself in trouble after a podcast interview he gave on Wednesday. He seemed to imply that Ukraine should not have resisted the Russian onslaught – and that if Hungary had been in a similar position, it would have given up without a fight.  ‘We probably wouldn’t have done what President Zelensky did two and a half years ago, because it’s irresponsible,’ Orban said. ‘Because obviously he put his country into a war defence, all these people died, all this territory was lost – again, it’s their right, it’s their

Michael Evans

Joe Biden has tried and failed to fix the Middle East

No one can accuse President Joe Biden of failing to do his utmost to prevent a full-scale war from breaking out in the Middle East. He and his indefatigable envoys must have spent more time this year working on the Middle East than any other issue.  The intensive diplomatic efforts by Antony Blinken, secretary of state, Jake Sullivan, national security adviser, Bill Burns, CIA director, and Amos Hochstein, Biden’s man covering Lebanon, among others, were supposed not only to find a workable solution to the myriad of crises but also enhance the President’s foreign policy legacy after what has turned out to be only one term in office.  Biden began his administration

John Foreman

How to evacuate a country

As fighting continues between Israel and Hezbollah, planning for a potential evacuation of British nationals from Lebanon has seen troops, ships and aircraft preparing in Cyprus and the wider region. Defence Secretary John Healey has chaired meetings in London to avoid the government being caught on the hop as happened before the evacuation from Kabul in 2021, following the unexpected collapse of the Afghan National Army. UK tabloids are already screaming about a ‘Dunkirk-style’ amphibious evacuation should an air extraction route become unavailable. This comparison is misleading. Naval planners had only seven days before launching the miraculous evacuation of 330,000 members of the British Expeditionary Force in 1940 under ferocious German attack. Evacuation plans of perhaps