World

Monday

Peter Hoskin

Can Merkel and Hollande meet in the middle?

This afternoon, it’s even clearer that the French and Greek elections are a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone. It’s not just the nervous market reaction to yesterday’s results, but also the way how the supranational debate has now changed. More so than ever, there are now two clear oppositional fronts. On one side, broadly speaking, are those who say that austerity is a prerequisite for growth. On the other, those who say that austerity must be relaxed for growth to arrive. It’s a situation dripping with black humour. When David Cameron kept Britain out of Europe’s fiscal pact a few months ago, it was portrayed as a

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

What Hollande’s victory means

Tonight’s election results mark the next challenge to the euro. In France, the Socialist candidate François Hollande has won. Having campaigned on changes to the fiscal compact, Hollande will have to deliver something on this front. But Angela Merkel, with her own elections next year, will not want to agree to anything that appears to be a watering down of the pact. I doubt, though, that there’ll be that much market reaction to Hollande’s victory. City sources say that it has been priced in for while and that there is an expectation that Hollande will merely accept some window-dressing about growth being added to the agreement. But what could set

The Spectator

Science or starvation | 6 May 2012

Here, for CoffeeHousers, is an extended version of the leader column in this week’s magazine. It takes on the green fundamentalism which stupidly aims to put a stop to genetically modified foods: At the end of the month, a group of shrieking protestors are planning to descend upon a field in Hertfordshire and, in their words, ‘decontaminate’ (i.e. destroy) a field of genetically modified wheat. The activists, from an organisation called Take the Flour Back, claim to be saving Britain from a deadly environmental menace. But in reality, these self-appointed guardians of Gaia are threatening not only to undo hundreds of man-years of publicly-funded research but also helping to destroy

Thursday

The Spectator

Barometer | 3 May 2012

Place names If François Hollande is elected French president this week, he will join a very small group: world leaders whose surnames match the names of foreign countries (although Holland is strictly only a region of the Netherlands).       — The closest world leader currently to bear this distinction is Co-Prince Joan Enric Vives Sicilia, the head of state of Andorra, whose surname matches the name of a former kingdom. Nahas Angula, prime minister of Namibia, nearly bears the name of a neighbouring country. — France has, however, had a prime minister called France: Pierre Mendes France, leader of the Radical Socialists and PM between 1954 and 55. Going with

Wednesday

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Did Cameron Text Rebekah Brooks 12 Times A Day?

The Prime Minister’s supporters will hope that this detail in Peter Oborne’s column today is not true: A fresh embarrassment concerns Rebekah Brooks, who providentially retained the text messages she received from the Prime Minister, which I’m told could exceed a dozen a day. These may now be published, a horrible thought. Now “I’m told” and “could” allow for some doubt. But the quantity of texts zipping between Ms Brooks and Mr Cameron is not the only problem, so too is their frequency. I cannot think the Prime Minister’s reputation will be enhanced by the disclosure that he was in contact with Ms Brooks almost every day. Indeed, if what

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Washington’s Favourite Unimportant Parlour Game: The Veepstakes

The American presidential campaign is in one of its few fallow periods just now. Which means it is time for a favourite quadrennial pastime: the Veepstakes! Who will Mitt Romney choose to be his running-mate? Rob Portman of Ohio? Marco Rubio of Florida? Chris Christie of New Jersey? Someone else entirely? Who can tell but does it matter anyway? And that, as Mike Crowley points out, is the small secret lurking behind most of the press coverage of this mini-drama: most of the time the identity of the Vice-Presidential nominee isn’t worth even the famous bucket of warm spit. Very few people even consider, far less are swayd by, the

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Fears heighten as the Eurocrisis rumbles on

For all the coverage of hacking, pasty tax and the like, the continuing crisis in the eurozone remains the most significant political story. Until it is resolved, it is hard to see how the UK returns to robust economic growth. I suspect that the market reaction to a Hollande victory will be limited as it is already pretty much priced in. Those expecting a degringolade will be disappointed. However, if Hollande does actually try and implement some of his more extreme ideas, the markets could take fright. What is far more worrying than France is Spain. There’s a growing sense of inevitability that the Spanish banks will need a bailout

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Three Cheers for Canada

And for Honduras too. Ottawa and Tegucicalpa are considering founding a Charter City in Honduras. As Paul Romer – the NYU professor at the head of the Charter City movement – explained in the Globe and Mail yesterday: Honduran congressional support for the RED reflects a clear understanding of the challenges the country faces. Inefficient rules are the major obstacle to peace, growth and development. These rules are difficult to change, especially in a society that suffers from fear and mistrust. Building a new city on an undeveloped site, free of vested interests, with trusted third parties, is one way to fast-track reforms that might otherwise take decades to achieve.

Peter Hoskin

Obama’s words meet with the Taliban’s bombs

Political theatre, that’s what Barack Obama delivered in Afghanistan last night. A year on from the death of Osama Bin Laden, and with the US elections fast approaching, here was the President reheating his existing timetable for withdrawal — and offering it up as reassurance for weary Afghans and Americans alike. There were some new details, courtesy of an ‘Enduring Strategic Partnership Agreement’ signed with Hamid Karzai, but this was mostly about the symbolism and rhetoric. As Obama put it himself, ‘We can see the light of a new day on the horizon.’ Except this ‘new day’ quickly slipped back into night. A couple of hours after Obama had left

Tuesday

Jonathan Jones

Le Pen says ‘non’ to Sarkozy

Marine Le Pen didn’t achieve quite the shock result in this year’s French presidential election that some thought she might when a few polls showed her ahead of Nicolas Sarkozy. But, even though she didn’t make it through to this weekend’s run-off, the National Front candidate did win 17.9 per cent of the first round vote. That means there are 6.4 million Le Pen voters for Sarkozy and Francois Hollande to fight over, putting her in a potentially very influential position. Sarkozy — currently trailing Hollande by six to ten points in the polls — has been particularly keen to court those voters, saying in a radio interview today, for

Thursday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Blooper reels won’t dethrone Obama

This compilation of President Obama’s gaffes is going viral, as they say.     Quite amusing. There’s something satisfying about seeing that ‘President Cool’  isn’t such a smooth operator. Obama is good with teleprompters, but he blunders when extemporising. It’s mostly forgotten that, in the 2008 debates against Hillary Clinton, he often looked and sounded out of his depth.   Still, it is a bit hysterical — and humourless — for Gary L Bauer to call his video ’53 seconds that should end the Obama presidency’, in reference to Rick Perry’s infamous disaster answer in a debate.   Voters don’t really care about presidential bloopers. And is it wise for

Hamish Macdonell

A pair of tycoons has put Salmond on uncertain ground

Alex Salmond may feel he got a lot from cosying up to both Rupert Murdoch and Donald Trump but, wow, is he paying the price. The front page of today’s Herald captures the First Minister’s problems perfectly. The entire first half of the front, above the fold, is covered with two pictures, one of Mr Trump and one of Mr Murdoch and the headline: ‘With Friends Like These.’ The strapline underneath states: ‘Salmond feels backlash from relationships with wealthy tycoons.’ The piece itself starts with the following: ‘One hit him with a verbal broadside, the other lavished him with praise. But, for different reasons, Alex Salmond was feeling the heat

Wednesday

Peter Hoskin

Murdoch versus Brown

Testimony A, from Rupert Murdoch speaking to the Leveson Inquiry today: ‘Mr Brown did call me and said “Rupert, what do you know, what’s going on here?”, and I said “What do you mean?” and he said “The Sun, what it’s doing and how it came about”. I said I was not aware of the exact timing, but I’m sorry to tell you Gordon that we have come to the conclusion that we will support a change of government when there is an election. He said — and no voices were raised — “Well, your company has declared war on my government and we have no alternative but to make

Alex Massie Alex Massie

Who’s Afraid of Marine Le Pen?

I suppose one should not be surprised that so much of the reaction to the first round of voting in the French presidential election has concentrated on Marine Le Pen. Fascists (or neo-fascists) are always good copy; far-right parties led by women are even better. Nevertheless, like so many other dramas there is less to this than might appear to be the case if you only read the headlines or listened to the BBC. Granted, Le Pen and FN won 17.9% of the vote in last Sunday’s first round. But what of it? In 2002 Marine Le Pen’s father won 17.8%. If this is the National Front on the march

Tuesday

Peter Hoskin

The Eurocrisis persists

Holland and Hollande; they’re the non-identical twins that are causing palpitations across Europe today. Holland, because the country’s Prime Minister yesterday resigned after failing to agree a package of cuts for his country’s budget. Hollande, because he’s the socialist candidate set to win the presidential election in France, probably eroding that country’s commitment to fiscal consolidation in the process. The markets quivered in fear at this morning’s headlines — and what they mean for the eurozone — even if they have, in some parts, slightly recovered since. It’s all another reminder that the Eurocrisis just isn’t going away — neither for countries such as France and the Netherlands, nor for

Monday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Why Sarko is worth a punt…

Call me crazy, but I’ve just bet on Nicolas Sarkozy to win the French election. I am not convinced he will — Hollande is rightly the favourite — but at 5/1, Sarko is well worth a punt, I reckon.
 As Gideon Rachman notes, last night’s first round was by no means a disaster for Sarko. In fact, given the extent of anti-Sarko sentiment throughout France, he did remarkably well. In the end, Hollande only beat him by about 1.5 per cent. Yes, no French president has ever failed to win the first round before, and the statistics are all against the incumbent. But that need not stop Sarkozy. He has

Clarissa Tan

QE is a government hijack, says King

While Mervyn continues to inflate our universe via Quantitative Easing, another Mr King — Stephen, the chief economist of HSBC — has issued a report saying QE is a way for governments to ‘hijack the credit system’. ‘The financial system is being rigged via acts of financial repression as governments look for new ways of funding excessive debts,’ says King in his bluntly worded report. While he doesn’t cite the UK or Sir Merv by name, it’s clear that reference is being made to QEs I and II, the government’s preferred means of stimulating lending through lowering borrowing costs. Financial repression — basically, when governments fund their borrowing through imposing

Sunday

James Forsyth James Forsyth

Hollande edges Sarko in French first round

The run-off in the French presidential election will be between the candidates of the two main parties, Nicolas Sarkozy and François Hollande. In a boost to the Socialist’s chances, Hollande topped the poll — but he was only a point and a half ahead of the sitting president. But, in some ways, the story of the night will be the best ever result for the Front Nationale, in terms of share of the vote. Marine Le Pen appears to have scored 20 percent, 3 percent more than her father Jean-Marie Le Pen did when he came second in the first round in 2002. The result is another sign of the

Saturday

Patrick Marnham

French farce | 21 April 2012

The first round of the French presidential election is a national carnival that seldom disappoints. If Sunday’s vote follows the opinion polls, only President Nicolas Sarkozy with 28 per cent of the vote and his Socialist party opponent François Hollande (a predicted 27 per cent) will remain in the ring. The country will then be faced with the real choice of who is to run France for the next five years, but the elimination of the eight outsiders will have taken most of the high spirits out of the campaign. The first round is the roll call of true believers. Three of the current candidates are Trotskyists (or ex-Trotskyists) and

Friday

Fraser Nelson Fraser Nelson

The coming schools crisis

Michael Gove’s school reform is being overwhelmed by the surging demand for school places, I argue in my Telegraph column today. When the Education Secretary first draw up his ‘free school’ programme, he said in a Spectator interview that his aim — while radical — was simple.  ‘In your neighbourhood, there will be a new school going out of its way to persuade you to send your children there. It will market itself on being able to generate better results, and it won’t cost you an extra penny’ Choice is only possible when supply outstrips demand. But the latter is growing faster than anyone envisaged a few years ago. The