World

James Forsyth

Gaddafi’s coming victory is a huge strategic setback for the West

It now seems almost certain that Colonel Gaddafi will now not only survive in Libya but reassert control over the whole country. With the fall of Ajdabiya, there is no break between Gaddafi’s forces and the rebel capital of Benghazi. The window for international action is shutting rapidly, even if it has not yet closed. But, as so often, there seems to be no multilateral desire for action. Gaddafi’s triumph is a disaster for the Libyan people but also one of the biggest strategic set-backs the West has suffered in the post 9/11 world. Every dictator will now know that they can suppress a revolt with violence without fear of

Meltdown danger

The situation in Japan is deteriorating further. In the early hours of this morning, the last workers are said to have left the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant as the danger of a nuclear meltdown grew. There have been explosions in three of the plant’s reactors and a fourth one is on fire. Everyone within a 30 kilometre radius has been told to stay indoors, and the U.S. Navy’s 7th Fleet, stationed more than 100 miles away to help earthquake victims, sailed farther away from the stricken plant after detecting unusual levels of radioactivity in the air. The Japanese Prime Minister, Naoto Kan, has confirmed that, “substantial amounts of radiation

Alex Massie

When the Sea Invades

Plenty of folk have posted this video of the Japanese tsunami but if you haven’t seen it yet then check it out. It’s not gruesome but it is extraordinary and, to use the word properly for once, awesome. Make sure you watch right to the end. UPDATE: Ooops. Should be the right link now.

Rod Liddle

Nuclear alert

I hope the Japanese authorities are telling the truth about the nuclear reactor building which exploded as a consequence of the earthquake. We are told that while the outer shell at the Fukushima plant did indeed explode (as seen on YouTube), the inner core, within its steel cradle, remained apparently unimpaired. In which case, why exactly did the outer shell explode? What caused it to do so? I ask not rhetorically, but out of interest. And also suspicion. They have been as secretive, the Japs, as were the Soviets when Chernobyl blew up and the first we knew of it was from a Norwegian meteorological team. Incidentally, I’m in favour

The Arab League adds its weight to the calls for a no-fly zone

We’re pushing for a no-fly zone. France is pushing for a no-fly zone. And now the Arab League is pushing for a no-fly zone too. The news fresh out of Cairo is that the organisation has voted in favour of restricting airspace above Libya. It will now push the UN to do the same, which is a considerably more proactive than the stance it adopted earlier this week. While one vote doesn’t really seal anything, this is potentially a crucial moment. NATO has made regional support a key condition of a no-fly zone – and now it has it, officially. Those who have been sniffing around for alternatives to the

China steps into the breach

Singapore China has lost little time pledging rescue help and aid to Japan, even though it is burying its own dead from the earthquake that shook Yunnan on Thursday. Beijing is keenly aware the world is watching it like never before – so its leaders are keen to make all the right noises. But dig deeper, and the reaction is more ambivalent, especially amongst ordinary Chinese, many of whom seem to have mixed feelings about Japan’s disaster. On sites such as Sina Weibo, China’s version of Twitter, some microbloggers have been snide – and some downright sadistic. (The Wall St Journal blog translates some here). It’s a reminder that Sino-Japanese

What the Libya crisis means long-term

The multiple crises in North Africa, from the revolution in Tunisia, through the protests in Egypt and to the conflict in Libya, has reinvigorated British foreign policy. In the last couple of years classic international issues have been pushed to the side by a need to focus on economic statecraft. Foreign ministers became less important as finance ministers gained prominence. This will now change, as leaders shift their focus onto the Libya crisis. The UN is again in focus, not the G20. The second change may be on East/West dynamics. Before the crisis, the air was thick with talk of a multipolar world and how power was flowing roughly from

Freddy Gray

Is Sudan next?

The momentum behind the Arab Spring revolutions appears to have been checked – for now. The Libyan domino hasn’t fallen. But there’s more unrest to come in North Africa. On March 21, a group called Youth for Change will hold mass protests throughout Sudan. Youth for Change (sinister name) are inspired, obviously, by what has happened in Egypt and Tunisia. Their aim, they say, is to ‘to rewrite the constitution with the voice of the people in order to hold national general elections: ‘[We march] to reclaim our dignity as human beings first and second as Sudanese …that has been violated by the regime when it killed thousands of our

Disaster in Japan

Graphs and tables cannot ever convey the full tragedy of the situation in Japan, but the one above captures an important fact: that today’s earthquake is historic in size. At 8.9 magnitude, this Japanese disaster is the 7th largest on the US Geological Survey’s books. Because it struck on the seabed, its destructive energy is distilled into the tsunami that is now sweeping across the island. What happens next is uncertain and could potentially worsen the catastrophe. A grim chorus of warning sirens is sounding from the coastlines of the Pacific, as everywhere from the Philippines to the west coast of America readies itself against the swells that may or

Alex Massie

Votes for Ex-Prisoners? Florida will be having none of that.

I think it perfectly reasonable for the state to deny prisoners the right to vote and that losing the franchise is one of the consequences of incarceration. But as far as I know no-one in this country has suggested denying ex-prisoners their voting rights. They do things differently in the United States. Over to Roger Clegg* at National Review: Florida governor Rick Scott and his cabinet have ended the policy of his predecessor, Charlie Crist, of automatically reenfranchising felons upon their release from prison. The ACLU et al. are outraged, but it’s the right decision: Those who have demonstrated that they won’t follow the law shouldn’t be allowed automatically to

Alex Massie

Mitt Romney and Roderick Spode

As you all know, one may be a designer of ladies’ underwear or a great dictator. But not both. Similarly, one may have passed a healthcare reform that’s a mini-version of Obamacare or one may become the Republican party’s next presidential nominee. But not both.  That, at least, is held to be Mitt Romney’s awful predicment and it’s making him do some very strange things to compensate for this dreadful weakness. Politics can be cruel: Mitt’s greatest strength was once his technocratic, problem-solving approach. His Massachusetts healthcare reforms were a Good Thing, not a betrayal of conservative first principles. Changed days. Matt Yglesias makes the good point that Scott Brown’s

The forgotten war

There is a war on. Not in Libya but in Helmand, where nearly 9,000 British troops are fighting. Last year was in fact the deadliest of more than nine years of war for Afghan civilians, the United Nations has just reported. You would not know it, though. For the events in North Africa have almost removed the issue entirely from the newspapers. When Hamid Karzai came through London recently, his visit barely registered. What a change from only half a year ago when every one of his idiosyncratic utterances would be replayed and over-analysed.   This may not be an altogether bad thing. Too much 24-hour coverage can make it

Rod Liddle

The Middle East’s revolutionaries turn out not to be all sweetness and light

The various revolutions popping up, like boils, in the Middle East (or “North Africa”, as the BBC likes to call it) seem to be going much the way this magazine predicted a bunch of weeks ago. The liberal, freedom-lovin’ ordinary people of Egypt, for example, have now begun their persecution of the Christian minority, setting churches on fire and trying to kill them. There’s been the usual spate of Islamic sexual persecution in Tunisia, directed at any woman not wearing the regulation sackcloth and ashes. I have seen no evidence that the rebels in Libya are Jeffersonian democrats, either. Which is not to say they should be denied their freedom,

Alex Massie

Newt Gingrich: A Buffoon, Wrapped in a Charlatan, Inside a Cad

Newt Gingrich’s campaign to secure the Republican party’s 2012 nomination doesn’t deserve to be taken as seriusly as plenty of serious people seem to be taking it. No-one thinks Newt can win but he receives vastly more coverage than other (and sane!) no-hopers such as Gary Johnson. Perhaps that’s explained by the fact that Newt can’t come within 150 yards of a microphone without making a fool of himself. As a result he provides good copy. Which wins him more publicity. The latest: his marital problems were just the consequence of his patriotism. He tells the Christian Broadcasting Network: “There’s no question at times of my life, partially driven by

James Forsyth

A reminder that the Iranian threat hasn’t gone away

Today’s news that Nato has intercepted an Iranian weapons shipment to the Taliban shows the threat Iran poses to international order and just how dangerous it would be for this regime to develop a nuclear capability. The shipment means that the regime, or at least part of it, wishes to assist those who want to kill Western troops and will back the forces of instability in the world. William Hague has released a statement calling Iran’s behaviour ‘completely unacceptable.’ But it is not clear what options Nato has beyond complaining about Iran’s actions. Any attempts to disrupt these supply routes on the other side of the border would be extremely

UN or not UN?

The garbled horror stories just keep on rolling out of Libya. According to the latest reports, Gaddafi’s troops have attacked the rebels in Zawiyah with redoubled violence and force. Aircraft, tanks, bombs, mortars – all have been used against the city and its people, with what one assumes are bloody results. As one resident puts it to Reuters, “Zawiyah as you knew it no longer exists.” It is unclear whether the rebels have now lost control there, but that is a strong possibility. Unsurprising, then, that the West is positioning itself to act. David Cameron, we are told, has been speaking with Barack Obama about the full spread of options

Alex Massie

Did Obama Ask Peter King to be his Ambassador to Ireland?

Peter King, America’s worst Congressman, is back in the news and just as loathsome as ever. No surprise there. This, however, is news to me and wholly surprising: After Obama was elected president, King got a call from Rahm Emanuel, the incoming chief of staff. “President-elect Obama would like you to be ambassador to Ireland,” said Emanuel, according to King’s recollection of the conversation. King said he thought hard about it over a long weekend, fantasizing about hosting his Irish relatives at the ambassador’s 62-acre estate inside Dublin’s Phoenix Park, where the Irish president also lives. But King declined the offer. “I just felt I would be defending foreign policy

James Forsyth

A princely problem

Tonight’s Six o’clock news had a long package on Prince Andrew that ended with Laura Kuenssberg reporting from Downing Street on the government’s attitude to the prince. The fact that the government is now so much part of this story is due to an unforced error on its part.   It was the briefing yesterday about how if more came out then Andrew would have to resign as trade envoy that pushed the government right into the middle of this sorry story. This set journalistic hares running and had everyone demanding to know what the government’s position was. The government, which had got involved in this story more through cock-up

James Forsyth

Duncan warns of oil price rise and King of future financial crisis

There are two important political interviews in today’s papers, Alan Duncan in The Times and Mervyn King in the Telegraph. Duncan, the international development minister, echoes Chris Huhne’s warning of ever higher oil prices. He also makes a rather glib remark about how “I don’t think we want to take military action so women can drive in Saudi Arabia.” King’s interview with Charles Moore is fascinating reading. The governor fears  that there could be another banking crisis. He warns, ‘The problem is still there’. But what struck me most were his comments about the Vickers’ review of banking: ‘The key question, in his view, is not why an individual bank

Alex Massie

What’s So Bad About Rupert Murdoch?

My esteemed colleage Nick Cohen dislikes disagreeing with the equally estimable James Forsyth and I dislike disagreeing with Nick in turn. But his comments on the decision not to block Rupert Murdoch’s bid to purchase the 61% of BSkyB he did not already own seem unecessarily belligerent and, moreover, hyperbolic. Nick writes: The editors of every newspaper, television channel and radio station, with the exception of editors at News International, will be telling their hacks to go for Hunt. My colleagues will have a solid public interest justification for acting in their employers’ interest because we will be punishing corruption so blatant a seven-year-old could see through it. Rupert Murdoch