World Archives

Monday

9 Dec 2024

How Assad’s fall could reshape the Middle East

One hundred years after the world’s major powers conceived the landscape of the modern Middle East, the tumultuous events unfolding in Syria have the potential to enact an equally profound reorientation of the region’s political dynamics. The Cairo conference of 1921, where Winston Churchill famously quipped that he had created the new kingdom of Jordan ‘with the stroke of a pen on a Sunday afternoon’, was responsible for creating the modern geography of the Middle East. Present-day Syria emerged from the remnants of the larger domain that had existed during the Ottoman era. There are practical issues that must be addressed, such as the rehabilitation of an estimated 13 million

Nicholas Farrell

If Meloni is ‘far right’, why are neo-Nazis trying to kill her?

Dante’s Beach, Ravenna Italian police have arrested 12 alleged terrorists who are accused of plotting a Day of the Jackal style sniper assassination of Giorgia Meloni. Many more remain under formal investigation. According to investigators, the plotters aimed to install the sniper in a room in the Albergo Nazionale, opposite the Italian Camera dei Deputati (House of Commons) in Rome. Given that much of the global media continues to call Italy’s first female prime minister ‘far’ or ‘hard’ right, and ‘the heir to Mussolini’, you might assume that those arrested are far-left radicals. But you could not be more mistaken. They are fascists. That Italian fascists want to kill Meloni,

Ross Clark

Syria just proves the West is damned whatever it does

It is salutary to remember that were it not for Ed Miliband, Bashar al-Assad might have been deposed 11 years ago. In August 2013, the former Syrian leader gave the West the perfect pretext for acting to get rid of him: it was the first occasion he was proven to have used chemical weapons against his own people. The West left Assad in power but got Isis anyway The then-prime minister, David Cameron, proposed military action but Miliband, then Labour leader, instructed his MPs to vote against. The vote was lost and, without Britain’s backing, Barack Obama – who had previously said that the use of chemical weapons would be

Gavin Mortimer

France has had enough of Germany’s bullying

There was one person missing in Paris on Saturday evening as France celebrated the resurrection of Notre Dame cathedral. The original guest list included Ursula von der Leyen – but the president of the EU Commission was a no-show. According to whom one believes, Europe’s most powerful politician didn’t take her place in the pew alongside Emmanuel Macron, Donald Trump et al because of what a spokesman described as an ‘internal miscommunication’. That’s the diplomatic take. The other story is that a ‘furious’ Macron withdrew von der Leyen’s invitation after she signed off the EU Mercosur trade deal with South America on Friday. Struck with Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay and

Andrew Fox

How chaos could return to Syria once again

‘The only certainty in war is human suffering, uncertain costs, unintended consequences.’ So said Barack Obama in a speech in 2015, defending the historic mistake of his Iran deal. What an irony it is then that ‘unintended consequences’ should apply once again to another of his failures, this time in Syria. Obama’s failure to enforce his red line against Bashar Al-Assad’s use of chemical weapons in 2013 led to the country being torn and split multiple ways between the Assad regime, various ethnic and jihadist military groups and their external backers. Syria has had a lost decade as a result. The fall of the Assad regime should be celebrated. But

Brendan O’Neill

The trouble with Amnesty International

How perfect was it that Amnesty International’s report on Israel’s ‘genocide’ in Gaza landed on the same day that the war in Syria got even bloodier. As Islamist rebels swarmed Hama in the west of Syria, a city of a million souls, days before they seized Damascus itself, the virtuous of Amnesty had only one thing on their minds: Israel. It’s official: nothing, not even the return of carnage to Syria, can dislodge the activist set’s obsession with the Jewish State. Rarely has the Israel myopia of the campaigning classes been so starkly exposed Rarely has the Israel myopia of the campaigning classes been so starkly exposed. Five hundred thousand

Daniel DePetris

America is not prepared for Syria after Assad

On Saturday afternoon, US intelligence officials leaked an assessment: the Assad regime, which has ruled Syria for over half a century, could very well collapse in a manner of days. As one official told CNN, ‘Probably by next weekend the Assad regime will have lost any semblance of power.’ It turns out that Washington was giving Assad too much credit. Less than eight hours later, a regime that had locked up hundreds of thousands of prisoners in dudgeons across the country, and used chemical weapons against its own people on multiple occasions to keep itself in power, was burning up and heading for the ash heap of history. The Syrian army gave up;

John McHugo

How will HTS rule Syria?

Yesterday we woke to the astonishing news that the rebels from the Syrian opposition had taken Damascus and President Assad had fled. The joy is huge and infectious, even if tempered with trepidation. In 2007, I was assured by a soldier in Damascus that the Ba’athist regime had the solidity of rock. That could be said to be the line Assad repeated throughout the civil war from 2012 onwards. Yet in a few days from 27 November to 8 December this year, opposition forces spearheaded by HTS – Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (‘the Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant’) – swept out of their bases in rebel-held Idlib and the Turkish controlled

Sunday

8 Dec 2024

Mark Hollingsworth

The Russian nuclear threat is looming once more

It is 00.40 pm, 26 September 1983. Lieutenant-Colonel Stanislav Petrov, the duty commander in charge of monitoring the Soviet Union’s early warning satellites designed to identify American missile attacks, is carefully checking his panels. Suddenly, the alarms roar into loud action. The word ‘Launch’ flashes onto his screen in large red letters. For the next 15 seconds, one of the satellites reports that five American Minuteman missiles have been launched and are heading towards the Soviet Union. Based in a secret bunker hidden deep beneath the woods just outside Moscow, Petrov is transfixed and stares at the screen in disbelief and shock. The automatic order to launch in retaliation is also sent to Soviet

Katja Hoyer

Olaf Scholz’s dreams of election victory are wishful thinking

Three years ago today, Olaf Scholz was sworn in as Germany’s chancellor. He had narrowly won the election by presenting himself as Angela Merkel’s natural successor. Appearing as the continuity candidate was good enough to clinch it in 2021, but Scholz is unlikely to pull that off again in Germany’s snap election, expected to be held on 23 February next year. Scholz’s Social Democratic party (SPD) appears to have reached a nadir. Polls give it 15 or 16 per cent of the vote share, third place behind the centre-right CDU/CSU in first place and the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) in second. You’d have to go back to the 19th century

Stefan Weichert

In Donbas, Ukrainians hope Trump can end the war

Not a single home remains intact in the village of Bohorodychne in Donbas, since it was torn apart by artillery back in 2022. There are signs warning about mines everywhere. The local school is ripped apart and burned-out. Military vehicles are camped in the village and in the fields. No shops are open. Even the local Russian Orthodox church has been destroyed in the fighting. Before the full-scale Russian invasion, approximately 700 people lived in Bohorodychne. Now, only a fraction remain. They roam the streets as Ukrainian military cars drive through the village on the way to the frontline, some 30 kilometres away. Everyone here depends on aid groups to

Paul Courtright

South Korea is still haunted by the Gwangju Uprising

The news that President Yoon had instated martial law on Tuesday hit me hard. The last time martial law was declared in South Korea, in May 1980, I was a Peace Corps volunteer living in Gwangju, a city in the south west of the country. Peaceful protests against martial law took place in the city, until the military moved in and killed hundreds of ordinary people. What became known as the Gwangju Uprising changed Korea, and me, forever. I was one of a handful of foreigners to witness the uprising, and ended up translating for the few foreign reporters who managed to get into the city. Forty-four years later, I couldn’t

Ian O’Doherty

How working-class Dublin turned on Conor McGregor

When Conor McGregor stood in the dock for his civil rape trial last week, the controversial MMA fighter was receiving the kind of global media attention he had always craved. Just not for the reasons he would have wanted. In court, the 12-person jury found him liable for the rape and sexual assault of Nikita Hand, and awarded her £208,000 in damages. This was the latest nail hammered into a career which has been marred by sporting controversies, sexual misbehaviour and appallingly thuggish behaviour. The circumstances which brought McGregor before the civil court were as tawdry as people had come to expect from the Dublin brawler. One Friday night in

Saturday

7 Dec 2024

Nigel Jones

Will Syria’s new rulers show mercy?

The late Henry Kissinger said of the Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s that it was a shame that both sides couldn’t lose. Much the same is true of the current situation in Syria, where the long established regime of the brutal but secular Assad dynasty looks increasingly likely to fall to a sudden Islamist rebel offensive. Syria has been convulsed by a vicious and multi-sided conflict since 2012 when riots against the dictatorship of Bashar al-Assad turned into a full-scale civil war. Assad, a London trained ophthalmologist, had reluctantly become the heir apparent to his iron-fisted father Hafez al-Assad (the surname means ‘the lion’) after the death of his more

Carson Becker

How Finland joined the West

Finland’s entry into Nato in 2023 dealt a major blow to Russia in the Baltics. For years, President Putin had warned his Finnish counterparts that a decision to join the alliance would be met with an appropriate response, but the implicit threat has been slow to materialise. In February, Russia reconstituted its Leningrad Military District, a Soviet-era administrative region tasked with defending Russia’s northwestern territories, but otherwise there’s been a palpable quiet in the far north. In recent weeks, this has begun to change. On 18 November, the sole fibre optic cable linking Finland and Germany was severed, and hours after a cable connecting Sweden and Lithuania was also cut.

Charlie Gammell

Will the Syrian Civil War create another ISIS?

There are unintended consequences, and then there are unintended consequences. What we are seeing in Syria, as Aleppo and Hama fall (and Homs braces itself) to a coalition of anti-regime forces whose DNA is to be found in al-Qaeda et al, is an unintended consequence of Israel’s bombardment in Syria of Iran-funded pro-Assad groups, and the pulverising of Hezbollah in Lebanon. An unintended consequence of the weakening of Iran and its Axis of Resistance. For the three pillars on which Bashar al-Assad props up (for the time being) his murderous kleptocratic narco-state – Iran, Hezbollah and Russia – are, respectively, on their ‘best’ behaviour in the hope of talks with

Matthew Parris

Alexandra Shulman, Sean Thomas, Matthew Parris, Adrian Dannatt and Philip Hensher

34 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Alexandra Shulman reads her fashion notebook (1:13); Sean Thomas asks if a demilitarised zone in Ukraine is inevitable (6:02); Matthew Parris argues against proportional representation (13:47); Adrian Dannatt explains his new exhibition Fresh Window: the art of display and display of art (21:46); and Philip Hensher declares he has met the man of his dreams: his Turkish barber (28:17). Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Leon Mangasarian

How Angela Merkel broke Germany

Angela Merkel, who last month published her memoirs on her 16 years as German chancellor, was a great tactician. But she was dead wrong on many of the strategic questions hurled at Germany during her time in charge. Merkel is the architect of a Germany that’s again the sick man of Europe, now in a second year with a shrinking economy and surging parties on the far-right and far-left. Merkel doesn’t do mea culpas and this has annoyed some reviewers of her book. Those who hoped for admission of failures misunderstand Merkel. She’s a physicist, who disassembles problems before making, what she sees, as fact-based decisions. Her manner of deflecting

Gavin Mortimer

Donald Trump was right about Paris

Donald Trump is in Paris today to attend the official reopening of the renovated Notre Dame cathedral. The president-elect has what could be described as a love-hate relationship with the French capital. He loves the place but it – more precisely its mayor and most of its right-on residents – hates him. This contempt first manifested itself days after he defeated Hillary Trump in the 2016 presidential election. Hundreds of protestors took to the streets of Paris, banging pots and pans and chanting ‘No Trump, no hate, no KKK’ and ‘Hey hey, ho ho, Donald Trump has got to go’. The organisers of the rally listed why they believed Trump

Svitlana Morenets

Why is Poland building a barrier with Ukraine?

A ceasefire in Ukraine is far from being agreed, yet Poland is already preparing for its collapse. In recent months, Warsaw has been digging an anti-tank ditch along its border with Russia and Belarus – and has decided to extend it to Ukraine. The 400-mile-long ‘East Shield’ will almost double in size and include minefields and bunkers, anti-drone systems and AI-powered defences to protect Poland from possible invasion. Ukraine’s closest neighbour clearly puts little trust in Donald Trump’s promise of peace with Russia: if Vladimir Putin rearms and comes back for more, Poland must be ready to meet battle-hardened Russian troops at its border. Donald Tusk called the £2.5 billion