World

Tuesday

Sam McPhail

How accurate are the US election polls?

Is Donald Trump going to lose Iowa? That’s the conclusion many US pundits came to after a bombshell poll over the weekend. That poll, conducted by the psephologist Ann Selzer, put Kamala Harris three points ahead of Trump in Iowa, despite Trump having comfortably won the state by almost ten points in the past two presidential elections. So Iowa could tonight return to swing state status. In past elections voters in the state have backed Reagan, Clinton, Obama, and Trump: now they might turn to Harris. However, at the same time as the Selzer poll was published, a contradictory but less-covered poll indicated another strong Trump victory. This poll from Emerson College concluded that

Steerpike Steerpike

Gamblers are putting their money on a Trump triumph

It’s polling day across the pond and Steerpike is keen to have a flutter. Opinion polling in the US election suggests the safe money is on Kamala Harris, but his fellow gamblers seem to be telling a different story. Data analysed by Mr S’s friends in the Speccies’ data dungeon shows money is pouring in behind The Donald. Trump has a nearly two thirds chance of returning to the White House in January, according to an analysis of implied probabilities. Do the punters know something the pundits don’t?  Mr S will be tracking the betting markets every five minutes and updating the graph below…

Daniel McCarthy

A ripple, not a wave, will decide the US election

What can the 2020 and 2016 elections, the previous votes in which Donald Trump was the Republican nominee, tell us about today’s race for the White House? There are three layers to a presidential election, only two of which really matter. The overall ‘popular’ vote only counts for bragging rights. Trump has never won it. The popular vote in individual states, however, is the critical second layer of the election. Trump won the 2016 election because he eked out slender popular pluralities in Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Arizona – four states that are battlegrounds this year as well – and in Florida, which since 2000 had been the biggest prize

Daniel DePetris

Why a Trump win may not rock the boat as much as you think

If you didn’t know any better, you might think the 2024 US presidential election was a make-or-break moment for America and the world. Allies and adversaries alike will be watching the election results like the rest of us: on the edge of our seats. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now. So goes the result in those three states, so goes the fate of the international system as we know it. Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin are at the centre of the universe right now It’s all a bit dramatic. Sure, certain countries have their favourites. South Korea, for example, is petrified that a second

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

France’s drugs war is spiralling out of control

Even by the bloody standards of what France has become under Emmanuel Macron, the carnage last week was horrific. In Poitiers, a shootout left five youths seriously wounded, one of whom died of his injuries at the weekend. In Rennes, a 5-year-old remains in a serious state after being hit in the head by a stray bullet. In Valence, a 22-year-old man was shot dead and two others wounded as they queued outside a nightclub for a Halloween party on Thursday night; the following day an 18-year-old was gunned down and killed in a suburb of the same town. In Villeurbanne, a suburb of Lyon, a man was shot dead,

Monday

Kate Andrews Kate Andrews

Is the last minute momentum really with Kamala Harris?

36 min listen

As the 2024 US election goes into the final day, a poll giving Kamala Harris a lead in the historically Republican state of Iowa has bolstered the Democrats. Is momentum really with her? And what appears to be the most important issue to voters – the economy, or abortion rights? Guest host Kate Andrews speaks to John Rick MacArthur, president and publisher of Harper’s Magazine, about his views on America’s election process from postal voting, trust in the system, and whether the electoral college needs reform. Produced by Patrick Gibbons.

Leon Mangasarian

How Germany became the sick man of Europe

Vertrauen ist gut, Kontrolle ist besser – trust is good, control is better – is a popular German saying. It’s also the state’s motto for overseeing Europe’s biggest economy, which is now being run into the ground. Germany’s economy is officially expected to shrink in 2024 for the second year in a row. Berlin’s Social Democratic Chancellor Olaf Scholz and his Greens Vice-Chancellor Robert Habeck, who are fighting for their political lives as their coalition crumbles around them, are to blame. Only one German sector is growing: the state. Government consumption grew by 2.8 per cent from mid-2023 to mid-2024. Dealing with bureaucracy costs German business €67 billion (£55 billion)

Geoff Hill

A fragile democracy has bloomed in Botswana

There’s been a momentous election in Africa, Botswana to be exact. Not heard about it? Don’t be surprised. The British and US media have all but ignored the story or got it wrong in the run-up. Even the BBC barely mentioned it though they bang on about Israel to such a degree you’d think the war was in Guernsey instead of Gaza. On 30 October, Botswana held a general election as they have every five years since independence from Britain in 1966. Of all the countries in Africa, it’s the only one that’s never had a coup or a period of autocratic rule. But since 1966, the Botswana Democratic Party (BDP)

Jim Lawley

Heads will roll after Spain’s flooding catastrophe

Spain’s King and Queen were pelted with mud yesterday when they visited Paiporta, epicentre of the flood disaster zone in the Valencia region. Over two hundred people have died in the flooding, dozens of them in Paiporta; more are thought to be trapped and, by this time, surely dead in underground garages and car parks. Local people are furious that the authorities were slow to issue flood warnings when the rains came last Tuesday and then very poor at coordinating what has turned out to be a seriously under-resourced relief effort. Locals seized the opportunity to vent their feelings of abandonment and desperation, chanting ‘Murderers’ and hurling slurry at the

Sunday

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

Will China tell North Korea to pull out of Russia?

Throughout the Russian invasion, China has, for the most part, refused to be drawn into the conflict. It has not condemned Russia or asked Putin to pull back (except when the threat of nuclear warfare was on the table). But it has also acquiesced to western sanctions and refrained from giving Russia lethal aid. In the meantime, the invasion has allowed Beijing to pull Moscow closer to its own economic orbit and use Russia’s gas reserves to secure its own energy imports. All this has come as western military and economic resources are bogged down in Europe, depleting the same resources which might eventually be turned to containing China in

David Starkey

How Kemi Badenoch’s Tories can rebuild Britain

The Conservatives finally have a new leader. But Kemi Badenoch must be under no illusions: after the disastrous July election, we have a mountain to climb and a revolution to undo. But we can remain hopeful, because we have been here before – and found a way out. In 1974, the Conservative prime minister Edward Heath, having taken Britain into Europe, blown up the economy and been humiliated by the miners, was defeated by Labour’s Harold Wilson. The future of the Tory party was in doubt. Surveying the wreckage, Sir Keith Joseph, who had served in Heath’s cabinet, had a revelation: ‘I had thought I was a Conservative, but now

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

It’s rich of the French to call Trump ‘vulgar’

There has always been a touch of snobbery in the way the French elite regard American politics. The word one reads and hears most often in the mainstream media is ‘vulgarity’. This is particularly true of Donald Trump, who is abhorred as much by the right-wing press as by the left. ‘Trump, vulgarity on the loose,’ was the headline in a recent article in the centre-right Le Figaro. This snootiness is long-standing, but it became more acute two decades ago during the war in Iraq. France’s refusal – correct, as it turned out – to join George W. Bush’s ‘coalition of the willing’ led to a torrent of abuse in Washington. The French

Saturday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Has the Trump campaign stalled?

The ‘Trumpmentum’ of the last few weeks couldn’t last forever. Now, with less than four days to go until election day, concern is spreading in Republican circles that the Trump train has ‘stalled’ as the Democrats make late and potentially decisive gains in key areas.  Across the battleground states, and especially in Pennsylvania, early voting numbers suggest that women are turning out in far bigger numbers than men. This is good news for the Democrats because 2024 is widely thought to be ‘the gender election’: a majority of men favour Trump; a majority of women support Harris. The Trump campaign is also lagging behind Harris in early voting among senior

Christopher Caldwell

Christopher Caldwell, Gus Carter, Ruaridh Nicoll, Tanya Gold, and Books of the Year I

34 min listen

On this week’s Spectator Out Loud: Christopher Caldwell asks what a Trump victory could mean for Ukraine (1:07); Gus Carter argues that leaving the ECHR won’t fix Britain’s immigration system (8:29); Ruaridh Nicoll reads his letter from Havana (18:04); Tanya Gold provides her notes on toffee apples (23:51); and a selection of our books of the year from Jonathan Sumption, Hadley Freeman, Mark Mason, Christopher Howse, Sam Leith and Frances Wilson (27:08).  Produced and presented by Patrick Gibbons.

Daniel Rey

Can Republicans be trusted with the US economy?

When it comes to the economy, Americans typically trust the Republicans. They’re the party traditionally aligned with big capital; and their policies – low taxes and minimal government interference – sound sweet in a believer’s ear. Donald Trump, leading the GOP for the third election in a row, is a famous businessman; and the party’s previous nominee, back in 2012, was Mitt Romney – the co-founder of one of the largest private equity firms in the world. The Republicans, you might think, are a safe pair of hands. However, despite the Republicans prioritising the economy, it’s the Democrats who have the far superior record. Of the eleven recessions since World

Samuel Ramani

Does Qatar still hold the key to a Hamas hostage deal?

Qatar is the Middle East’s mediator-in-chief. The assassination of Hamas’s senior leadership and Gaza War’s regionalisation to Lebanon have not thwarted Qatar’s push for a ceasefire and the release of ninety-seven Israeli hostages in Hamas’s custody.  The CIA and Mossad chiefs brainstormed plans for a hostage release deal Qatari prime minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman al-Thani welcomed US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Doha last Thursday. Sheikh Mohammed announced that Qatar had ‘re-engaged’ with Hamas after Yahya Sinwar’s death and would host US and Israeli negotiators for ceasefire talks. Blinken enthusiastically endorsed this proposal. On Sunday, CIA chief Bill Burns and Mossad head David Barnea arrived in Doha. As

Friday

Julie Bindel

Germany’s gender madness is a worry for women everywhere

Germany has gone further than most countries in failing to stand up to the relentless march of transgender ideology. Its Self-Determination Act, which comes into effect today, makes it far easier for people to change gender. The law enables Germans to alter their name and gender, or even have the gender marker removed altogether, on official records. Those who intentionally disclose someone’s ‘dead’ name or legal gender could face fines of up to €10,000 (£8,000). The Self-Determination Act is a worrying moment for women everywhere November 1 is a dark day for feminists and those who fear that men will now be able to encroach upon women-only public spaces. In

Lionel Shriver Lionel Shriver

America’s impossible election choice

31 min listen

With just days to go until the American election, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump’s respective campaigns continue to ramp up, with rallies and gimmicks, and even advertising on the Las Vegas Sphere. Despite this, Spectator contributor Lionel Shriver declares she is America’s ‘last undecided voter’. Why? Is it the candidates’ characters that put her off voting for them, or the policies they represent? Lionel joins guest host, and fellow American, Kate Andrews to discuss further.  Produced by Megan McElroy and Patrick Gibbons.

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Donald Trump, Liz Cheney and the great realignment in US politics

For Donald Trump fans, one of the many creepy curiosities of this year’s presidential election is that Liz and Dick Cheney and other disgruntled Bush-era Republicans are firmly supporting the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris. Donald Trump understands this dynamic better than most For Harris supporters, meanwhile, it’s strangely alarming that Robert F. Kennedy Junior, scion of the world’s most famous Democratic dynasty, and the former presidential candidate Tulsi Gabbard are now both superstars in Trumpworld. The realignment is real. Hippie Democrats, who distrust corporate America, Big Pharma, the military-industrial complex, and Washington have grown increasingly fond of Trump. Rich Republican neocons, who prioritise national security (at least their sense of

John Keiger John Keiger

Why France’s media is keeping quiet about Michel Barnier’s health

France’s 73-year-old prime minister, Michel Barnier, underwent surgery last weekend for a lesion on his upper neck. According to the government spokeswoman yesterday, the operation ‘went well’ and the PM is back at work after two to three days’ rest. French media have been characteristically tight-lipped about the health of France’s second in command and the Fifth Republic’s oldest prime minister.  French media have been characteristically tight-lipped about the health of France’s second in command Le Monde – sometimes thought of as an unofficial organ of the state – merely trotted out the official communiqué; Le Figaro added that the operation was considered benign and that test results will be known in