World

Wednesday

Henry Donovan

Merz’s new coalition is bad news for Germany

Today, the CDU’s Friedrich Merz has signed a coalition agreement with the Social Democrats. In doing so he has formalised the most spectacular betrayal of centre-right voters in modern German history. The document might as well be written in red ink, given how thoroughly the SPD has dominated the negotiations despite suffering their most catastrophic electoral defeat since the Wilhelmine era.  In a press conference announcing the agreement, a stuttering and visibly uncertain Merz thanked the leaders of the SPD for the ‘great work’ of the past weeks. This is not how an election winner proudly presents his new government. There was fear in his voice. This is precisely the outcome the far-right

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Trump shock: is there method behind the madness?

A ‘black swan event’, as defined by the risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb in 2007, is a surprise occurrence that has a major impact on the global financial system and is rationalised after the fact as something that ought to have been expected all along. The 9/11 terror attacks are one example, the Covid pandemic another – shocks that rocked the world and made us wonder if freedom works. Since Wednesday last week, however, the gods of the marketplace have been wrestling with a new and more mind-boggling creature: the ‘orange swan’, a cataclysmic Donald Trump-induced happening that is at once entirely predictable and baffling, an event that is rationalised

Michael Simmons Michael Simmons

Xi escalates China’s trade war with Trump

China has announced it will impose 84 per cent tariffs on US goods imports from tomorrow, as the war of words and levies between the world’s two largest economies escalates. The new measures –  50 per cent on top of the 34 per cent already imposed by Beijing’s finance ministry – are a like for like increase for the 50 per cent increase levied by Trump overnight, taking the US’s total tariff on Chinese goods to 104 per cent. The FTSE100 – which was already down more than 2.3 per cent this morning – plunged even further to 3.6 per cent following the midday news.  Beijing had vowed a ‘firm

Ian O’Doherty

Ireland is looking terrifyingly vulnerable to Trump’s trade war

The Irish government has spent a lot of time trying to reassure voters that they have little to fear from any economic realignment with America. Now it is openly acknowledging the uncomfortable truth: that more than any other EU member state, Ireland is in a remarkably precarious position following Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs. Internal government economic models have indicated that the Irish economy could lose 60,000 jobs in the next 12 months as a direct result of Trump’s trade war – with many more losses expected to follow. The reasons for Ireland’s unique and perilous exposure are varied. It is heavily reliant on US tech and pharmaceutical companies which have

Damian Thompson Damian Thompson

Was Simeon of Jerusalem the first Christian in recorded history?

28 min listen

In Luke’s Gospel, an ancient inhabitant of Jerusalem named Simeon meets Mary and Joseph when they bring Jesus to be presented at the Temple on the 40th day after his birth. He has been promised that he will not die until he has seen Christ, and as he takes the baby into his arms he utters the words, ‘Lord, now let your servant depart in peace, according to your word; for my eyes have seen your salvation which you have prepared in the presence of all peoples, a light for revelation to the Gentiles, and for glory to your people Israel.’  This prayer, known down the centuries by its opening

Tuesday

Alexander Kolyandr

Russia can’t escape the fallout of Trump’s tariff war

When Donald Trump unveiled his table of tariffs in Washington last week, there was one country that was conspicuously absent from his list: Russia. The White House’s argument was that there was no point slapping tariffs on trade with Moscow because the existing sanctions in place against it meant there was negligible bilateral trade going on between the two countries. Despite this, the global trade war that has erupted will still impact Russia, threatening to undermine Moscow’s economic stability, stifle its already slowing growth and amplify its strategic dependence on Beijing. Trump’s trade realignments will further marginalise Russia as an energy supplier The White House’s justification for excluding Russia from

Ian Williams Ian Williams

China won’t win its ‘fight to the end’ against Trump

China has accused Washington of ‘blackmail’ and said it will ‘fight to the end’ after Donald Trump threatened overnight to impose an additional 50 per cent tariff on Chinese imports. At the same time, President Xi Jinping is seeking to present himself as a responsible champion of the international trading system and defender of globalisation against the Trump wrecking ball. Neither position bears scrutiny; the latter is almost laughable, since it is Beijing’s persistent disregard of international rules that has fuelled the anger in America in the first place. It all smacks of desperation and not the ‘super economy’ of CCP propaganda As part of its strategy, the Chinese Communist

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Hamas has a history of using ambulances for war

Before the facts had even settled, western media outlets rendered their verdict: Israel was guilty. Guilty of deliberately targeting ambulances. Guilty of murdering humanitarian workers. Guilty because in the court of international opinion, Israel’s guilt is the default setting. Only later did the complicated reality emerge. Israeli forces near Rafah, acting on intelligence that Hamas operatives were exploiting ambulances for military purposes, opened fire on a suspicious convoy. People were killed, including members of the Palestinian Red Crescent and Civil Defence. But rather than approach the incident with caution and historical awareness, media outlets like the New York Times and Sky News rushed to enshrine a narrative of Israeli barbarism – a

Jane Stannus

Canada is more conservative than politicians think

Finally, some good news for Canada’s Conservative party. For the first time since the federal election was announced, a poll last week showed them in the lead, and polls over the weekend show them closing in on the Liberal party. They’re not where they were, but it’s progress. In early January, the much-loathed Trudeau was stepping down, both Liberals and the New Democrats were highly unpopular, and the Conservatives, with a no-nonsense economic platform were considered a shoo-in for the next election. But thanks to Canada-US tensions over border security and tariffs, Liberals have been topping every poll since the beginning of the election campaign. The Conservative’s Pierre Poilievre is staying

Monday

Freddy Gray Freddy Gray

Has Trump stopped the oligarchy?

21 min listen

Global financial markets are experiencing significant declines following the announcement of new tariffs by President Trump. These tariffs led to widespread panic among investors and sparked debates about their potential impact on the economy.​ In this episode of Americano, host Freddy Gray is joined by Joe Weisenthal, co-host of Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast, to discuss the ramifications of these tariffs. They delve into the immediate market reactions, including a brief $4 trillion surge driven by a misinterpreted news clip, and analyse the underlying motives and potential consequences of the administration’s trade policies.

Cindy Yu Cindy Yu

What does it take to be ‘an old friend of the Chinese people’?

38 min listen

The term ‘old friend of the Chinese people’ might seem a colloquial, almost sentimental, phrase to appear in official diplomatic language, but in the Chinese context, those words have a very specific meaning. Most often, they refer to high profile foreigners whose actions have helped the Chinese Communist Party in one way or another. The most famous of these is Henry Kissinger, who led the way for American rapprochement with China. That the CCP gives various foreigners this honour is revealing of China’s priorities over the decades, but also of its attempts to co-opt foreign forces to its cause. Think back to the United Front strategy, which we looked at

Philip Patrick Philip Patrick

Trump is bending Japan to his will

‘National crisis’ was how Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba described the fallout from President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs in a speech on Friday. That was strong language from the normally measured Ishiba, but was borne out by the bloodbath in the Nikkei stock exchange over the last few days of trading. Stock markets around the world have been battered, but Japan’s has been one of the worst. It plunged 2,600 points to close down a whopping 8 per cent today, the third largest fall on record. Amongst the worst casualties were the Mizuho Financial Group, whose shares fell 10.6 per cent, and Mitsubishi, whose stock plunged by 10.2 per cent.

Brendan O’Neill Brendan O’Neill

Is Israel wrong to see Labour MPs as hostile actors?

Israel’s denial of entry to two Labour MPs is a truly shaming moment. Not for Israel, which, like all sovereign states, is perfectly at liberty to permit or deny entry to anyone it chooses. No, for Labour. That our ally, the Jewish nation, is so wary of Britain’s ruling party that it felt compelled to banish two of its representatives should generate some serious soul-searching in Labour. The flap over Israel’s ejection of the MPs Abtisam Mohamed and Yuan Yang has been mad. It’s the hissy fit heard around the world. Leafy London is up in arms. ‘I am outraged’, thundered Emily Thornberry on Sunday with Laura Kuenssberg. Israel will

Jonathan Sacerdoti

Why did Israel block two British MPs at its border?

In 2008, under the UK’s Labour government, Israeli politician Moshe Feiglin – a Likud central committee member – was denied entry into Britain. Then home secretary Jacqui Smith cited public safety concerns, quoting Feiglin’s provocative articles and speeches as justification. There was no court appeal available to him, no diplomatic immunity by virtue of his office; he was simply barred, his presence deemed not ‘conducive to the public good’. Few, if any, in the British political establishment rushed to his defence. Fast forward to today, and the diplomatic chaos caused over the weekend by two Labour MPs, Yuan Yang and Abtisam Mohamed, being denied entry into Israel. The reason: Israeli

Stephen Pollard

David Lammy’s Israel hypocrisy

I suppose we should name it the ‘Lammy Doctrine’, after the Titan of global diplomacy we are so privileged to have as our Foreign Secretary. So many and varied are David Lammy’s achievements that it is difficult to keep up, but this weekend he added yet another to the list. Responding to the decision of the Israeli immigration authorities to bar two Labour MPs from entry, he appeared to announce a new doctrine: that British MPs are allowed to go where they want, say what they like and behave as they wish, and no country on earth has the right to bar them from entering. And yet Britain can nonetheless

Gavin Mortimer Gavin Mortimer

Marine le Pen is far from finished

The right rarely take to the streets in France, but thousands gathered in Paris on Sunday to hear Marine Le Pen pledge to continue the fight. The leader of the National Rally was convicted of embezzlement last week, and among her punishments was a five-year political disqualification. She told her supporters she was a victim of a ‘witch-hunt’ and they roared their agreement. Le Pen had assembled her MPs and supporters in the Place Vauban, in the shadow of the Hôtel des Invalides, built by Louis XIV as a retirement home for old soldiers. In the days leading up to the rally, some of Le Pen’s political adversaries had warned

Rana Mitter

China is wary of American intentions

In 2024, China exported three times more to the US than the US did to China, and President Donald Trump’s aim is to get this trade balance down to zero. On ‘Liberation Day’, Wednesday 2 April, Trump announced that Chinese goods coming into the US would now have an additional tariff of 34 per cent imposed on them, added to an extra 20 per cent imposed earlier this year. This means that those goods are now subject to an overall rate of 54 per cent. China has now lodged a complaint at the World Trade Organisation, declaring: ‘This practice of the US is not in line with international trade rules,

James Tidmarsh

Should Marine Le Pen step down?

It was a rally for Marine Le Pen billed as a rendez-vous historique. In the end, barely a few thousand people showed up on Sunday afternoon in Paris. In a city where more than a million marched after the Charlie Hebdo attacks, and where hundreds of thousands protested against racism and police violence in recent years, Sunday’s rally for Marine Le Pen barely registered. The Rassemblement National had promised a great mobilisation to denounce Le Pen’s recent conviction and her five–year ban from public office. What it delivered was a media production surrounded by journalists and padded out by militants bussed in from the provinces. The rally failed to convince

Saturday

Sam Meadows

Javier Milei has cut poverty

Javier Milei has reduced poverty in Argentina. This week brought the publication of a tranche of government poverty figures, covering the period from July to December last year. Much had been made of the immediate surge in poverty that occurred in Milei’s first six months in office. The fall – down to 38.1 per cent from 41.7 per cent in the same period last year, when the country was governed by the Peronists – would seem to be a vindication of the chainsaw-wielding libertarian and his policies. But is there more to it than that? Milei came into office promising to shatter the country’s economic approach and bring the country’s

James Heale James Heale

Marine Le Pen: justice or lawfare?

14 min listen

Marine Le Pen, president of Rassemblement National (National Rally) was found guilty this week of embezzling EU funds to boost her party’s finances. The guilty verdict was widely expected, however her sentence was far harsher than even her strongest critics expected – part of which saw her banned from standing for office for five years, with immediate effect. Le Pen had been the favourite to win the next French presidential election in 2027. Pursuing Donald Trump through the courts was widely seen as backfiring as he went on to win the presidential election, and many have argued that there is a double standard with many more figures and parties facing investigation from