Russia

Lisa Haseldine

Zelensky’s drone warning to Russians

Hours after Moscow was once again attacked by unmanned drones in the early hours of Sunday, Volodymyr Zelensky has declared that the war is turning back on Russia. Speaking in his daily video address, the Ukrainian president stated that ‘Russian aggression had failed on the battlefield’. ‘Ukraine is getting stronger,’ he continued. ‘Gradually, the war is returning to the territory of Russia – to its symbolic centres and military bases, and this is an inevitable, natural and absolutely fair process.’ This is the sixth drone attack on the Russian capital in three months and the latest incident appears to mark a significant departure in tactics for Ukraine. Until now, Kyiv

Lisa Haseldine

Drones strike Moscow in fifth attack since May

For the fifth time in three months, Moscow has once again been targeted by drones. In what is fast becoming a regular occurrence, the Russian ministry of defence reported that two drones attacked the city in the early hours of this morning. Despite the ministry’s claims to have intercepted and jammed the drones, they were still able to inflict damage on two buildings in the south west of the city. According to the government news agency TASS, one of the drones hit a non-residential building on Komsomolsky Prospekt, a mere two miles from the Kremlin and just over the river from Moscow’s famous Gorky Park. This isn’t the largest drone

Svitlana Morenets

Targeting Odesa marks a new turn in the war

The world is waking up to pictures of fresh destruction in the Ukrainian port city of Odesa, which has been under constant Russian fire since the grain export deal collapsed last week. At least one person has been killed and 19 more injured following missile strikes overnight. The roof of the recently-rebuilt Transfiguration Cathedral has partially collapsed, and there have been films of local residents trying to rescue icons and other sacred artefacts. The footage is striking – but a tiny part of what’s now at stake. Back in July 2022, Russia agreed not to destroy Ukraine’s grain-exporting infrastructure given how important the foodstuff is to Africa and world food

Putin has escaped his South African dilemma

As a founding member of the International Criminal Court, South Africa has an obligation to arrest Vladimir Putin should he ever step foot in the country. This posed a problem for Pretoria, given the Russian leader was due to attend a meeting of the Brics trading group in Johannesburg next month. No longer. President Cyril Ramaphosa announced on Wednesday that Mr Putin would be staying home.  Long-range warheads landing on Jo’burg, Durban and Cape Town would soon have shortened Brics to Bric The International Criminal Court has accused him of war crimes in Crimea, especially over the treatment of children, and has issued a warrant to all member states. Pretoria has been neutral on the war in

Mark Galeotti

Will MI6’s Russian recruitment drive work?

Sir Richard Moore, head of the Secret Intelligence Service – MI6 – follows the tradition of only giving one public address a year, so it is inevitably scrutinised carefully for signs and portents. His speech at the UK embassy in Prague, inviting Russians to spy for Britain, required no particular reading between the lines. After a suitable preamble noting Britain’s strong relationship with the Czech Republic, he pivoted from Moscow’s brutal suppression of the liberal Prague Spring in 1968 to Soviets, the bravest of whom, seeing ‘the moral travesty of what was being done…acted on their convictions by throwing in their lot with us, as partners for freedom.’ This was

Putin and the power of the Orthodox church

In April this year, a sombre looking Vladimir Putin attended a midnight Orthodox Easter Service in Moscow’s Christ the Saviour Cathedral. Holding a lit red candle, the Russian President crossed himself several times during the ceremony, known as the Divine Liturgy. When Father Kirill declared ‘Christ has risen’, Putin duly responded with the congregation: ‘Truly he is risen’. It was a year after the brutal invasion of Ukraine, but the Russian leader and Father Kirill showed no remorse or compassion for the suffering caused by the war. In fact, Putin and the Kremlin has exploited the support of the Orthodox Church in an attempt to give his actions a spurious

Lisa Haseldine

Have we seen the last of the Wagner Group?

Three weeks after marching on Moscow, the Wagner Group has seemingly been withdrawn from the battlefield in Ukraine, according to the Pentagon. Pentagon press secretary Patrick Ryder said there was evidence to suggest that the 25,000-strong mercenary group was not ‘participating in any significant capacity in support of combat operations in Ukraine’. The Pentagon’s statement follows weeks of rumours and speculation about how successfully Vladimir Putin is dealing with the fallout of Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion. Many Kremlin-watchers expected the President to crack down hard on the Wagner leader – and were subsequently puzzled when Prigozhin was allowed to nominally retreat into self-imposed exile in Belarus.  The Kremlin’s reaction to Prigozhin’s mutiny

Mark Galeotti

Moscow’s pyrrhic Nato victory

Despite the inevitable and performative expressions of anger, regret and dismay following this week’s Nato summit, Moscow feels it has reason to be moderately content with its outcome. It has seen Ukraine frustrated in its failure to secure Nato membership – and fractures emerge between Kyiv and the West. Moscow’s contentment, however, may well be misplaced. In fact, the summit’s inconclusiveness when it comes to Ukrainian membership has ensured a range of other initiatives which are rather less comfortable for the Kremlin.  The notion ahead of the summit that Ukraine would be invited to join the alliance before peace had been concluded – essentially forcing the rest of Nato into

Ukraine’s Nato limbo is set to continue

As the Nato summit on international security opens this week in Vilnius, one obvious issue will be the success or otherwise of the Ukrainian counter-offensive. Apart from the liberation of a few villages, where are the victories earlier forecast by figures like head of military intelligence Kirill Budanov, who predicted the Ukrainian army would be in Crimea by the end of spring? Hopes of a quick push to the Azov sea, inspired by the retaking of Kharkhiv last September, have hit a sandbar this time round: denser Russian defence lines and widespread use of landmines. Come autumn, the weather will be against the Ukrainians too, the muddy season making a counter-offensive more

Russian sanctions are hurting Putin’s enemies

‘Ukrainians fight for their homeland, Russians fight for Putin’s ambitions’, declared the TV presenter on his YouTube channel earlier this year. This was not a Ukrainian propagandist. In fact, the commentator was Russian and talking on ‘TV Rain’, the most popular and effective opposition channel broadcasting into Russia.  In TV Rain’s final programme from Moscow before the station was forced to shut down and move abroad, the founder declared: ‘No to war. Putin cannot win the war’. In exile, the channel remained robust. ‘The war has no justification and has to be stopped’, says the editor Tikhon Dzyadko. ‘Russia must withdraw its troops from Ukraine’.  The most effective vehicle of

‘We don’t have time to waste’: An interview with Ukraine’s Azov brigade commander

The acting commander of the Azov brigade, Major Bohdan (pronounced Bogdan) Krotevych, is a hero in Ukraine. In last year’s Siege of Mariupol, he and 2,000 men – together with civilians and other units of the Ukrainian armed forces – held out for almost three months as defenders of the Azovstal Iron and Steel works. That huge network of tunnels and bunkers provided shelter to withstand daily bombardments from far more numerous Russian forces. Ironically, it was the Soviet Union that built this enormous infrastructure to withstand such aerial bombardment.  Major Krotevych – his call sign is ‘Tavr’, meaning a native of Crimea – spoke to me from the Azov

Mark Galeotti

The Kremlin is trying to humiliate Prigozhin

When corrupt Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was toppled in 2014, his private estate at Mezhyhirya turned out to contain an ostrich farm, chandeliers worth thousands and and a two-kilo gold loaf of bread. When Wagner mercenary chief Yevgeny Prigozhin’s St Petersburg estate was raided, investigators found cash, guns – and a bizarre collection of wigs. But what does the eager ‘through the keyhole’ leak of footage from the raid tell us about the state of play in the Putin-Prigozhin grudge match? A giant sledgehammer in one room was inscribed, ‘For use in important negotiations’  Prigozhin himself is still at large. Although we were told the deal was for him to

Yevgeny Prigozhin
Lisa Haseldine

Drone strikes Russian military base near Moscow

Just as Moscow was beginning to recover from the shock of Evgeniy Prigozhin’s march on the capital, the city has, once again, been targeted by drones.  In the early hours of this morning, according to the Russian ministry of defence, five drones were intercepted before they reached the capital. Eyewitnesses reported seeing two of the drones flying in the direction of Moscow at a low altitude of approximately 200 metres. They came within touching distance of the city, getting as far as the New Moscow suburb to the south west. According to Russia, four of the drones were shot down. Footage circulating on Russian social media allegedly filmed at the time the

Putin’s secret weapon is fragility

As the dust settles on Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutiny that wasn’t, the consensus is clear: Vladimir Putin has been left weakened and vulnerable. Rebellions like this historically spell the beginning of the end of Russian authoritarian regimes, and observers are watching excitedly for signs of more vultures circling the Kremlin. But Putin’s weakness might, conversely, be the reason he clings on to power – at least for now. That Putin was damaged by the events of last weekend seems obvious: a private businessman with an army of just 10,000 men crosses your border, calls you a liar, takes one of your military bases in Rostov, marches on Moscow and shoots down

Lisa Haseldine

Has Putin had Sergei Surovikin locked up?

When Evgeniy Prigozhin started his armed insurrection, it was clear that he had allies within the ranks of the Russian military. His Wagner Group walked unopposed into Rostov, the HQ of the Russian military in the south and they were almost entirely unmolested as they came within 120 miles of Moscow. Vladimir Putin granted him amnesty, in return for retreat and exile, but a hunt seems to be on for those who might have backed him.  The Moscow Times is reporting the arrest of Sergei Surovikin, a general who until recently led the assault on Ukraine and had been close to Prigozhin. Citing two sources close to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the

Rostov returns to reality after Wagner’s botched coup

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year, it always seemed likely that the war would come back to Rostov-on-Don, the city which until then had been my home. Rostov isn’t just close to the border but feels it. Most of my university students were from the Donetsk and Lugansk, refugees from the 2014-2022 war. It’s the military hub of southern Russia, the first major city you come to from the Donbass. It felt like a sitting invitation. It was also somewhere I knew intimately and had been part of my life since my half-Russian daughter’s birth a decade ago. I took to Rostov-on-Don with an outsider’s greed for all four

Mark Galeotti

After Putin: how nervous should we be?

The brief mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries represented the most serious shock yet to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year reign. No wonder alarmed western governments are considering nightmare scenarios. Yet the outlook may actually be rather more optimistic. When news of the mutiny broke, there were fears of mass defections to the side of Prigozhin, a man who has sanctioned the murder of prisoners and even suggested that Russia ‘needs to live like North Korea’ to win its war with Ukraine. Rishi Sunak convened a Cobra meeting to consider possibilities apparently including a Russian collapse and nuclear proliferation. The concern is that a serious challenge to Putin risks pushing

The Wagner Group isn’t Russia’s only private army

Allowing a psychopath to form a private army of violent criminals may not, on reflection, have been Vladimir Putin’s greatest idea. But Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutinous Wagner Group is by no means the only private army operating in Russia. Over the past couple of months no fewer than five armies have been fighting on Russian soil. Only one of them, the official Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, is directly subordinate to the Kremlin. Pay can run to £2,400 a month, an attractive offer when the average wage in the provinces is under £600 The 12,000-strong semi-irregular forces of Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, officially known as the 141st Special Motorised Regiment

Nato’s leadership race is a miserable advert for the alliance

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has conceded defeat in his bid to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of Nato. Wallace had been a strong contender for the job, owing to his role in supporting Ukraine after Russia’s invasion. But now it seems the role will go to a character in the mould of the incumbent, a compromise candidate who least offends the countries doing the choosing. The role is simply too big and important to be left to this kind of petty box-ticking and political horse trading. Wallace appeared to suggest, in an interview with the Economist, that he faced opposition to his candidacy from America and France. The next