Russia

Wednesday

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

After Putin: how nervous should we be?

The brief mutiny by Yevgeny Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenaries represented the most serious shock yet to Vladimir Putin’s 23-year reign. No wonder alarmed western governments are considering nightmare scenarios. Yet the outlook may actually be rather more optimistic. When news of the mutiny broke, there were fears of mass defections to the side of Prigozhin, a man who has sanctioned the murder of prisoners and even suggested that Russia ‘needs to live like North Korea’ to win its war with Ukraine. Rishi Sunak convened a Cobra meeting to consider possibilities apparently including a Russian collapse and nuclear proliferation. The concern is that a serious challenge to Putin risks pushing

Owen Matthews

The Wagner Group isn’t Russia’s only private army

Allowing a psychopath to form a private army of violent criminals may not, on reflection, have been Vladimir Putin’s greatest idea. But Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mutinous Wagner Group is by no means the only private army operating in Russia. Over the past couple of months no fewer than five armies have been fighting on Russian soil. Only one of them, the official Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, is directly subordinate to the Kremlin. Pay can run to £2,400 a month, an attractive offer when the average wage in the provinces is under £600 The 12,000-strong semi-irregular forces of Chechen president Ramzan Kadyrov, officially known as the 141st Special Motorised Regiment

Jawad Iqbal

Nato’s leadership race is a miserable advert for the alliance

Ben Wallace, the defence secretary, has conceded defeat in his bid to succeed Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of Nato. Wallace had been a strong contender for the job, owing to his role in supporting Ukraine after Russia’s invasion. But now it seems the role will go to a character in the mould of the incumbent, a compromise candidate who least offends the countries doing the choosing. The role is simply too big and important to be left to this kind of petty box-ticking and political horse trading. Wallace appeared to suggest, in an interview with the Economist, that he faced opposition to his candidacy from America and France. The next

Tuesday

Sasha Lensky

Why Wagner’s coup failed

When Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine was launched, the overall mood among those around me – Russians from a range of ages and social groups – was one of scarcely believable elation, even hope. ‘Judging from the news this morning,’ one man said to me that day, ‘the borders of the Russian Empire will soon be moving westwards.’ I didn’t share his enthusiasm. ‘In two years’ time, we’ll be lucky if there’s a Russian Empire at all,’ I replied. Last Saturday, as Prigozhin and his Wagner group set out on their abortive coup, the picture was reversed: for the first time in 18 months, I felt a limited optimism about

Jade McGlynn

Putin is increasingly losing touch with reality

Trailed as an historic address to the nation following the weekend’s Wagner rebellion, Vladimir Putin’s short speech on Monday night was instead an unconvincing condemnation of everything generally and nothing much specifically. If the speech was historic, it was only because of the way the president brought up Russia’s historical betrayals and revolutions.  No amount of snarling and lip-curling could distract from the feebleness of Putin’s argument on Monday night Putin’s (mis)uses of historical grievance often cause bemusement in the West but it serves him well domestically. Replicated by the Kremlin propaganda machine, the President’s messages about the chaotic, desperate 1990s and the long scars of Russia’s bloody 20th century civil wars are carefully designed to invoke fear

Monday

Coffee House

Wagner leader Yevgeny Prigozhin breaks his silence

The leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, has released an 11-minute audio message after leading a march on Moscow. Here is an edited transcript of what he said: The Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) is probably the most experienced and combat-ready unit in Russia, and possibly in the world. (It is made up of) Motivated fighters, who have performed a huge number of missions in the interests of Russia – in Africa, in Arab countries and around the world. Most recently, this unit has achieved good results in Ukraine. (Yet) As a result of…ill-conceived decisions, this unit was due to cease to exist on 1 July 2023.  A

Jade McGlynn

Prigozhin offered a terrifying glimpse into Russia’s future

Yevgeny Prigozhin’s rebellion against the Russian military and political leadership may have stopped some 200 km short of Moscow, but its reverberations will be felt in the Kremlin for a long time. The  march, and the images of people in Rostov cheering Wagner fighters and hissing at the police, was a rare and unwelcome insight into what Russian politics could look like after Putin is gone.  Those who greeted the Wagnerites with baked goods and refreshments suggested that the fighters were ordinary folk like us, from the ‘narod’ (people). This speaks to Prigozhin’s perceived authenticity in Russia – an attribute in short supply in Russian politics generally – and also to the deliberate detachment

Sunday

Konstantin Sonin

The Wagner uprising has left Putin isolated

Both Vladimir Putin and the mercenary Wagner Group have been dramatically weakened by yesterday’s attempted coup. Wagner’s nominal leader, Yevgeny Prigozhin, goes into exile while his group will no doubt lose its privileged status. Putin, meanwhile, has been publicly and massively humiliated, a dangerous position for an autocrat. Firstly, Putin’s famed security forces proved completely helpless during a mutiny. Secondly, the mutineers – whom he called ‘traitors’ and promised to severely punish – will go unpunished. Putin had to make major concessions to bring an end to the coup, although what those concessions include is not yet clear. What is clear is that he was unable to crush the most

Owen Matthews

Prigozhin has made Putin more dangerous than ever

As rebel tanks trundled up the highway towards Moscow yesterday morning, Vladimir Putin labelled the mutinous mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin a ‘traitor’ – and vowed to crush him. But hours later Putin capitulated, allowing Prigozhin to retire to an honourable exile in Belarus and pardoning the 25,000-strong Wagner force which had spent the day in open, armed rebellion against the Kremlin’s authority. For Putin, who had built his image as Russia’s strongman protector, the particular humiliation of allowing an armed general to cross back over the Rubicon unscathed must have stung deeply.  Of course, things could have ended far worse for Putin. The alternative to letting Prigozhin escape and his

Yuri Felshtinsky

What’s the truth about Prighozin’s deal with Lukashenko?

What to make of the strange Prigozhin interlude? The putsch that was and wasn’t. The facts are simple. After an alleged attack on Wagner troops by the Russian army ordered by defence minister Sergei Shoigu and chief of general staff Valery Gerasimov, Prigozhin’s private army of 25,000 took control of the garrison town Rostov-on-Don and its airfield at 7.30am on 24 June. Shoigu fled the town and Gerasimov hid. A warrant for Prighozin’s arrest was issued in Moscow, as he quickly unleashed a ‘march of justice’ on the capital. The Kremlin doubled down and rolled out Putin on TV, who called the Wagner mercenaries’ actions ‘armed mutiny’, ‘a stab in

Saturday

Paul Wood

Prigozhin’s bid for death or glory

Up until this point, it was possible to believe that Putin was tolerating, or even orchestrating Yevgeny Prigozhin’s increasingly outspoken attacks on the military leadership and ‘the elites’ in Moscow. Vladimir Putin himself didn’t seem especially pleased with his generals. Only a few days ago, he turned his back on his defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, at a ceremony to give medals to injured soldiers. The fact that this was broadcast on state television makes it all the more likely that this was a deliberate, icy snub. Putin is said to like to pit his subordinates against one another, the better to stop an obvious successor from emerging. But Prigozhin’s attacks

Owen Matthews

Why Prigozhin rebelled

Civil war broke on Russia like a thunderstorm, replacing weeks of mounting political heat with a deluge of fire and fury. The sound of rifles and mortars echoed around Rostov-on-Don hours after mercenaries of the Wagner private military company took over the headquarters of the Russian Army’s Southern command. Wagner troops were filmed placing anti-tank mines on intersections in downtown Rostov. In Voronezh, Russian army KA-52 attack helicopters rocketed a tank park, apparently to stop the armoured vehicles falling into the hands of the rebels, as a burning oil refinery outside Rostov sent flames hundreds of feet into the air. A column of Wagner tanks on low-loaders was filmed heading

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Putin faces challenge from his own creation

It took a characteristically long time for Vladimir Putin to respond to the coup-that-dare-not-speak-its-name launched by Yevgeny Prigozhin, but when his statement came, it was steeped in bitterness. And no wonder, for Prigozhin was essentially Putin’s creation, and we know that Putin’s greatest venom is reserved for those he considers traitors. An ex-con who moved into the hot dog business and then finer dining options, Prigozhin’s early restaurant business in 1990s St Petersburg was given a dramatic boost by the patronage of the deputy mayor, one Vladimir Putin. Prigozhin’s Concord business group expanded dramatically, moving first into supermarkets, then everything from real estate to advertising, but almost always on the

Robin Ashenden

Rostov-on-Don: scenes from an occupation

The main thoroughfare of Rostov-on-Don is today crawling with military vehicles and masked soldiers carrying automatics, and the entrance to that circus – which backs onto the Rostov military headquarters – is blocked aggressively by a tank. The city is now controlled by the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin’s private army out on the rampage and rebelling against the Russian military high command. It is a city now under occupation, and many of its citizens, under ‘official advice’, are staying home. Telegram channels report that all civilian vehicles have been placed at a standstill, the city governor is arranging food deliveries for those caught in traffic jams, and in Rostov prisons

Svitlana Morenets Svitlana Morenets

Exiled Belarusian opposition calls for army to rise against Moscow

With Vladimir Putin facing armed insurrection from Prigozhin’s Wagner Group, the exiled opposition in Belarus has called for its military to assert independence from Russia. Valery Sakhashchyk, Opposition defence spokesman, has released a video where he addressed his countrymen and the 38th Airborne Brigade, which he once commanded and is regarded as still loyal to him. His video (and my translation) are below: ‘All thinking people understood that the Russian Federation was built on lies, corruption and lawlessness and that it will fall apart sooner or later. We are witnessing the beginning of the active phase of this process. We do not know for sure what will happen tomorrow. Perhaps

Sergey Radchenko

This failed coup will be just the beginning

Yevgeny Prigozhin has just exposed the full extent of Vladimir Putin’s weakness. In less than 24 hours, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group made extraordinary progress – taking control of the southern Russian city of Rostov-on-Don, the headquarters of the Southern Miliary District, and posing the most serious challenge to Putin’s leadership. The president did not look all-powerful, but unable to control Prigozhin as he said his 25,000 troops were willing to march on Moscow. Back on 9 May, when Prigozhin’s challenge to Vladimir Putin first became evident, I argued in The Spectator against the idea that Putin was ‘in charge’ of the situation. My analysis was based on

Lisa Haseldine Lisa Haseldine

Full text: Putin on Wagner coup

Vladimir Putin has just released a speech to Russians after the Wagner mercenary group took over Russian military headquarters in the south of the country in what is described by the Kremlin as an attempted coup. Full text below. ‘We are fighting for the life and security of our people, for our sovereignty and independence, for the right to be and remain Russian: a state with a 1,000-year history. This battle, when the fate of our people is being decided, requires the cohesion of all forces: unity, consolidation and responsibility. We must throw aside everything that weakens us, any strife that our external enemies can and will use to undermine

Coffee House

Prigozhin leaves Rostov

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, has left Rostov-on-Don and ended the armed insurrection against Vladimir Putin. After one of the most extraordinary days in Russian history, he said he marched within 125 miles of Moscow but said he decided to go no further to avoid bloodshed. Putin, who had ordered his army to crush Prigozhin and imprison his men, has agreed to drop all charges. After a Belarus-brokered peace deal, Prigozhin will self-exile in Minsk, according to the Kremlin. Footage emerged showing him being bid farewell by cheering crowds in Rostov and winding down his window to greet them. A few hours earlier, he released the

Monday

Jason Pack and Guy Fiennes

Russia’s sexual health crisis just got militarised

As Ukraine pushes forward its long-anticipated counteroffensive, Russian defence minister Sergei Shoigu seems more concerned with reeling in his institutional rivals, not least the wildcard Wagner group. But internecine institutional tensions are not the only affliction plaguing Russian occupation forces. As temperatures rise and the Ukrainians press the frontline, infectious diseases remain another challenge for Russian forces. In Wagner’s assault on Bakhmut, the self-proclaimed ‘most powerful army in the world’ made a slow, eight-month advance and suffered soaring casualties, of which 90 per cent were reportedly prisoner recruits. One in five of the 50,000 Wagner prisoner recruits who made up the bulk of their assault on Bakhmut were HIV positive – and a staggering 80 per cent

Thursday

Mark Galeotti Mark Galeotti

Putin is lining up a lengthy list of scapegoats for his war

Lately Vladimir Putin has been strikingly unwilling to subject himself to any serious debate about his war in Ukraine. On Tuesday, he came the closest yet, spending more than two hours talking to war correspondents working for either the state media or nationalist social media channels. It was hardly an inquisition, but there were some interesting insights into his thinking to be gleaned. Despite the clear evidence of a steady contraction in the Kremlin’s aspirations and expectations from the original intent to conquer the whole of Ukraine, he refused to accept that the goals of the ‘special military operation’ had changed in any way. Rather, he asserted, that although they